Derby Top 5 and comments

[Tony]

JB,

The whole foundation of my handicapping is comparing this years patterns to historical derby patterns - what works what does not and why I have been very negative on SM. After last year I learned my lesson with jumpers.

Like you have said before with most the best you can hope for is a pair up

Smooth fast lines win the derby

[flushedstraight]

for what it\'s worth, some fairly recent two-top Baffert history coming into Derby;

Indian Charlie;
developed 6.5 from prior top; regressed 1.5 in Derby (third)

Congaree;
developed 4.5 from prior top; regressed .25 in Derby (third)

Real Quiet;
developed 3.25 from prior top; paired up in Derby (first)

Point Given;
developed 3 from prior top; regressed 5 in Derby


and a paired-top

War Emblem;
developed 7.25 from prior top; forward 1.5 in Derby (first)

[Caradoc]

Right, and even including Giacomo, you would have to think that the flat 3yo line (a horse not progressing through his 2yo top, or his first effort at 3, whichever was the better effort) is not a good pattern either in the Derby. If I\'m interpreting the data in the archives correctly, there\'s a greater than 80% chance that Brother Derek either runs an off race or X\'s in the Derby.

[trackjohn]

After figs, developmental patterns, running styles, and recent workouts I am left with the intangible factors.  All thing being equal (which they very rarely are, thats why they call it gambling!) in my opinion, due to the \'intangibles\' the winner of this years derby will come from the Baffert barn for the following reasons:

 - The controlling speed in SM.

 - The second flight/stalker in Bob and John.

 - The confirmed closer in PD.

   
   If the field lets SM get away from the field in >47 and or 1:11 He is GONE

   If Romans or BD or LR or whoever choose to run with him then they are all
   cooked, which then sets it up for the second flight ie, Bob and John.

   If for some reason Bob and John lays too close or doesn\'t fire, PD will be
   lurking and closing.

   Knowing that Gomez has the best agent in the business and also knowing that  he had his chioce of all 3 it becomes clear why Bob and John is my pick.

[NoCarolinaTony]

Tony

Please throw out history as recent history will dictate past history is meaningless. Get off of the past and move on

NC Tony