sharp humor to control pace

[pres711]

This horse has been overlooked by this board.  He is very fast and has substantial two-year oldd foundation, a factor I value as essential for this race. His leaving means SM needs 45 and change to be in front at the quarter and probably cooks both\'s chances to win.  That said, I feel his florida derby was outstanding sets him up to run a top on 5/6.  Same could be said for Barbaro, another neglected pony! Hmm, could an undefeated son of dynaformer be the VALUE in this year\'s derby? stay tuned, good luck to all!

[fillway56]

Barbaro does have the right cycle going into the derby,but the lack of works( only 1 published since Fla Derby) & RAN on dam side worries me. Who else looks like their ready for a new top? Maybe AP Warrior or longshot Private Vow? What do u guys think?

[big18741]

Like Baffert said-Sharp Humor will be in front-of the second wave.

Two separate races going on as long as Sinister Minister isn\'t buried out of the gate.

Sharp Humor and Keyed Entry both dig in and fight.That makes Barbaro,Brother Derek and a pulling Lawyer Ron have to work really hard just to be in position to get first run on Sinister Minister.The way this races shapes up makes me want to toss all of those second wave horses.

Now I have to answer three key questions:

1-How far can Sinister Minister go on an uncontested lead?

2-Can Sweetnorthernsaint run a winning race given how the race shapes up? He\'d likely have to sit behind most or all of the above horses to be effective.

3-Sinister Minister and SNS both jumped up with tops into negative territory.When horses run off the screen like that I always expect at least some regression in the next one.How much is the question?

I\'ll probably end up using one or both with Bob and John as my key.

Also looking at Point Determined and Cause to Believe as underneath types.

The others under consideration are trained by the Lukas disciples who seem to find their way onto the board in this race at big odds:

Sunriver,Bluegrass Cat,Jazil and Flashy Bull.Tossing everything else.

[JJP]

There\'s a reason why Sharp Humor is overlooked.  He set a  slow pace w/a perfect ground saving trip in the FL Derby.  Not only will he not be able to stay with Sinister Minister, he may not be w/in 4 lengths of him.  And if he is, it will be because SM is under a hold, not because Sharp Humor is so quick.

[BitPlayer]

I think Romans was bluffing a bit and looking to capture the front of the second flight when he said what he did, trying to discourage others from sending and reassuring them that Sinister Minister would be pressured.  It will be interesting to see whether Romans picks inside or outside at the post position draw.

That said, I don\'t disagree that Sharp Humor\'s Florida Derby splits weren\'t that fast, but they didn\'t have to be.  He was moving right along when he pressed the pace in the Swale.  If he decides to run a half in 45, he certainly can.

The last thought I have on the pace scenario is that the best laid schemes of mice and men go oft astray (or something like that).  Remember Eternal Prince and Holy Bull.  

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

BitPlayer Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I think Romans was bluffing a bit and looking to
> capture the front of the second flight when he
> said what he did, trying to discourage others from
> sending and reassuring them that Sinister Minister
> would be pressured.  It will be interesting to see
> whether Romans picks inside or outside at the post
> position draw.
>
> That said, I don\'t disagree that Sharp Humor\'s
> Florida Derby splits weren\'t that fast, but they
> didn\'t have to be.  He was moving right along when
> he pressed the pace in the Swale.  If he decides
> to run a half in 45, he certainly can.
>
> The last thought I have on the pace scenario is
> that the best laid schemes of mice and men go oft
> astray (or something like that).  Remember Eternal
> Prince and Holy Bull.

Note Sharp Humor\'s Swale was on a strip as hot as Aqueduct on January 8th, 2005.

[davidrex]

Sharp Humor can\'t be held back...its not in his genes...if they try it,or if they send him,the extra distance will be such a shock to his grit and determination;he\'ll end up on the discount rack(at the bottom of the charts)

[bellsbendboy]

Hello David,  I honestly think Sharp Humor will be in front if he breaks clean. He has laid down salty splits each of his last four and kept going. Romans and many on the backstretch think he can WIN.  For me that is a total stretch as he has only had one two turn race, amid other concerns. Apparently,Winstar bought into him today and he is a looker, indeed.

Speaking of Winstar their \"other\" colt Bluegrass Cat may not be coming into the Derby as good as you would want. So why not decline to enter him if you are Pletcher and elevate Sunriver to the entry box, as this full to Ashado is training great.

I can \'cap, but this number game is new to me, and I would say its fooey, except the accompanying data that TG offers, is spot on accurate.  Without using TG #\'s Sunriver looks to me as decent, new top , new top, a sealed track toss,  huge new top, pair up, then???  Shouldn\'t he improve numberwise again here, if he gets in? bbb

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

bellsbendboy Wrote:
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> Hello David,  I honestly think Sharp Humor will be
> in front if he breaks clean. He has laid down
> salty splits each of his last four and kept going.
> Romans and many on the backstretch think he can
> WIN.  

Romans thinks the Cubs can win it this year too.

Wayne Lukas thinks he can win, so what more reason do you need to toss him?

Lastly I would just say theres quite a difference in running your four furlong split essentially upon a straightaway low variant strip and running your four furlong split around a complete turn. You more or less saw Sharp Humors two turn split ability in the Florida Derby. (An 06 variant there by the way) His best fractional split was in the Sleepy Hollow where on a 30 variant track he pulled a 45.2 straightaway half from the inside. Note he was not clear despite that fractional effort. The horse his trainer is absent mindedly challenging to a joust is significantly faster, clearly more dedicated to the lead and is already laughing at him.

Sharp Humor\'s only chance to lead is a disasterous break by Sinister Minister. Even assuming that bad break, I\'m not certain he can outquick Brother Derek. My money is on Derek to be in second.

Guaranteed

 

[shanahan]

am I the only one who thinks a lot of posters overthink everything?

[congaree1]

you couldn\'t of said it any better.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

shanahan Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> am I the only one who thinks a lot of posters
> overthink everything?

lol

If you\'re not factoring the pace and positioning in the Derby you may as well just hand your money to the guy that is. Remeber Ty\'s advice to Danny in Caddyshack? \"Be the ball Danny....Be the ball\"? Danny was blindfolded and projecting himself flying towards the hole. He was new at it though and his ball splashed. You have to master the Zen. If I\'ve got a handle on the race, I see the horses positioning even before the gate opens.

When the gates spring open and the quarter mile time of 23.2 goes up and they are running 1-2-3 as some said, keep in mind your commentary about over thinking.

That said, you can\'t accurately project the running positions until the field is set and that posts are drawn.