Stay Off The Pipe

[TGJB]

More crack being smoked on 11th street:

According to the Thoroughbred Times (free Ragozin numbers!), Lawyer Ron got a 6 for the Arkansas Derby. That\'s way off, but not the point right now-- I\'m interested in focusing on the kind of mistakes that anyone with common sense (or in this case, eyes) can understand. Because they also say that third place finisher Private Vow got a 7.

Now, PV was beaten 4 1/4 lengths, which is just over 2 points on both our scales at this distance, so if LR got a 6, that brings PV to an 8 or a little higher. The two horses were at level weights, no change there. So PV must have raced a good deal wider, right? In fact, a total of 2 paths wider, counting both turns, to get to where Ragozin has him.

Well, watch the race. PV is just outside LR on the first turn-- that\'s one length. But on the second turn, he\'s on the rail and actually INSIDE LR, who is on the lead, but well off the rail-- the total ground loss is about a wash. Meaning, LR should get a number 2-2 1/2 points better, depending on exactly what ground you want to give him on the second turn.

Fellas-- this one wasn\'t tough. Those horses are on the lead, on camera every second. You can\'t miss it.

Miff-- from the figures TT has published, there are some serious differences. I\'ll have more to say about all of this over the next week or so.

[miff]

JB,

I was discussing the derby with an avid RAG customer who is acquainted with Len and co.I was told that Brother Derek has never surpassed his 2yr old top on Rags(unconfirmed). It seems inconceivable to me by any performance methodology that Bro Derek has not improved from last year, fig wise.

I hear Rags has released its pre-derby data and if anyone has seen it, please let me know if what I posted is true.Thanks.

Mike

[congaree1]

I have the Rag sheets for pre derby horses.

[congaree1]

It is true BD has not made it through his 2yr top.

[miff]

Congaree said:

\"I have the Rag sheets for pre derby horses\"


...and did Bro Derek beat his two yr old top?

Mike

[congaree1]

nooooooo

[miff]

Thanks Congaree

[congaree1]

Your welcome Miff

[Silver Charm]

So if you were still reading Ragozin numbers your interpretation of Lawyer Rons line would be, positive or negative?

Ragozin numbers, not your own........

[TGJB]

SC-- I haven\'t seen the Ragozin Derby sheets yet, just selected figures printed in the T Times. They have LR with a flat line recently and a good deal slower than others, from what I can see I probably wouldn\'t like him off theirs.

[kev]

I have both sets of the sheets and TG.
I don\'t like LR on either one. Rag\'s fastest for him is a 2\". On TG why so long for him to get back to the 0 ( 12 weeks ) also he bi in his last start.

[Silver Charm]

Lawyer Ron has a Two Top on Ragozin and ran a 6 last out. Not exactly the direction you want to be moving in. Apparently Brother Derek doesn\'t look so good either and Sweetsouthernsaint and Sinister are coming in off significant Tops. Looks like another Supah Blitz year.

I only asked about Lawyer Ron because one of the more knowledgable posters on this Board, Michael D. had some good things to say about his chances, if ridden correctly. I kind of liked what I saw myself but he has campaigned pretty hard and you have to wonder if he isn\'t running out of gas.

Things seem to be wide open this year, almost like the year Harlans Holiday went favored. There are horses who can\'t even get in to the race who could at least hit the Board.

Thinking about is a enough to keep someone awake at nights.      

[spa]

Dream of Private Vow........

[Silver Charm]

Ooooh I\'ve got one of those going but I can\'t see myself playing the horse.