Cause to Believe-pedigree?

[big18741]

I\'m starting to take a harder look at him.All of the pace is going to be good for him.I don\'t know that he can win the race,but given the setup he could be involved.

I\'m willing to toss his Illinois Derby.Slower pace,didn\'t like the track-whatever.One off race isn\'t a killer for me.If memory serves correct he ran a 1.5 or so in his win against Sinister Minister which at least puts him in the ballpark.I forget his # for the El Camino the race prior.

Is he bred to handle 10f\'s?

[Michael D.]

18741,


Marias Mon is good enough on top. Already sired one Derby winner, and has had a few other contenders that have run well past a mile.

On bottom - A ton of class from the female family. The dam (Storm Cat) has produced two winners from three starters, the second dam (Mr Prospector) was a graded takes winner at a route, and the third dam was a stakes winning sprinter. Average winning distance for broodmare sires Storm Cat and Mr Prospector is only average however, and you have a sprinter behind that. CtB is a pretty fast horse, and certainly has as much stamina in his pedigree as last year\'s runner up, Closing Argument, but I will not play him to improve as he stretches out.
 
   

 

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

big18741 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I\'m starting to take a harder look at him.All of
> the pace is going to be good for him.I don\'t know
> that he can win the race,but given the setup he
> could be involved.
>
> I\'m willing to toss his Illinois Derby.Slower
> pace,didn\'t like the track-whatever.One off race
> isn\'t a killer for me.If memory serves correct he
> ran a 1.5 or so in his win against Sinister
> Minister which at least puts him in the ballpark.I
> forget his # for the El Camino the race prior.
>
> Is he bred to handle 10f\'s?

Just took a gander at Cause to Believe\'s pedigree. I\'m not impressed with the Storm Cat influence. But, the horse has a very substantial female family in Cuddles, Stellarette, Square Angle and Nangela. Its a running female family. You have to hope the Storm Cat didn\'t ruin it.

http://www.pedigreequery.com/cause+to+believe

Is he bred to go long? Yes, he has some discreet breeding. But you have to ask yourself, Was he lucky to win the California Derby? And, was the pace really too slow for him to close into in the Illinois Derby? Depending upon how you answer those questions, then the breeding question may or may not be relevant.

[hossgnat]

CTB is my derby horse. I jumped on him in the second derby futures pool with both feet, and now, for better or worse, it looks like he\'ll be in the field.  Maria\'s Mon gave us the stretch-running gray Monarchos, I\'m hoping to see this stretch-running gray in the winner\'s circle too.

Something visually about CTB\'s consistent and decisive closing moves told me this is a Derby contender. However, we\'ve not seen that move outside of CA, nor at a distance beyond 1 1/16.

I\'ve struggled to explain what happened at Hawthorne. Most observers will point to that race and conclude that Cause is not good enough to run with these, and/or that added ground is not in his favor. Of course that may turn out to be the correct conclusion, but I\'ll take solace in knowing the horse was placed much too close to a soft early pace.  That will not be the case in Louisville.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

hossgnat Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> CTB is my derby horse. I jumped on him in the
> second derby futures pool with both feet, and now,
> for better or worse, it looks like he\'ll be in the
> field.  Maria\'s Mon gave us the stretch-running
> gray Monarchos, I\'m hoping to see this
> stretch-running gray in the winner\'s circle too.
>
> Something visually about CTB\'s consistent and
> decisive closing moves told me this is a Derby
> contender. However, we\'ve not seen that move
> outside of CA, nor at a distance beyond 1 1/16.
>
> I\'ve struggled to explain what happened at
> Hawthorne. Most observers will point to that race
> and conclude that Cause is not good enough to run
> with these, and/or that added ground is not in his
> favor. Of course that may turn out to be the
> correct conclusion, but I\'ll take solace in
> knowing the horse was placed much too close to a
> soft early pace.  That will not be the case in
> Louisville.

The Illinois Derby pace was not soft.

CtB placed himself as he always does and was no closer than he generally is on those concrete strips in N. Kalifornia.

hossgnat, last year you were fortunate to win the Derby with very close to the worst horse in the field. He has subsequently demonstrated that in every race he has run. Several factors aggregated to get him up. The least of which not being the fact that he\'s sound and generally runs the same slow grinding race. However, there will be no reprieve this year with CtB. But take heart, you can lose about 24 straight Derbies on uniform bets and still break even. What I want to know is who is your friend is picking this year, because if I don\'t miss my guess he\'s an automatic exclusion...lol

At least you\'re not about to give up on the longshot. I have a friend that plays every 50-1 plus horse in a race. Multiples in the same race. He loses overall, but he does have some big days.

I am a fan of Marias Mon and this horse has sufficient backside breeding. The issue I have is that I\'m not even enamored with his wins. Don\'t see the closing kick.

[hossgnat]

Chuckles,

To clarify, my buddy jumped on Giacomo last year, I didn\'t make a dime on the race.  All I got was a 24-hr all-you-can-drink pass on Travers day at the Spa, courtesy of \"Giacomo appreciation day\" as he termed it... lol.

I simply can\'t agree that the Ill Derby fractions were honest. Assuming that they were honest, CTB had no business being just off the pace. He\'s a fairly versatile kind, but not that versatile. Honest fractions in that race would also put SNS into a league of his own -- not a leap of judgment that I\'m prepared to make at this point.

In any case I\'ve got my derby horse. Never thought I\'d look to Northern Cali for my choice, but so be it.  Whatever logic I\'ve followed in the past hasn\'t worked as I\'m 0 for lifetime in the Derby as a handicapper.. lol.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

hossgnat Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chuckles,
>
> To clarify, my buddy jumped on Giacomo last year,
> I didn\'t make a dime on the race.  All I got was a
> 24-hr all-you-can-drink pass on Travers day at the
> Spa, courtesy of \"Giacomo appreciation day\" as he
> termed it... lol.
>
> I simply can\'t agree that the Ill Derby fractions
> were honest. Assuming that they were honest, CTB
> had no business being just off the pace. He\'s a
> fairly versatile kind, but not that versatile.
> Honest fractions in that race would also put SNS
> into a league of his own -- not a leap of judgment
> that I\'m prepared to make at this point.
>
> In any case I\'ve got my derby horse. Never thought
> I\'d look to Northern Cali for my choice, but so be
> it.  Whatever logic I\'ve followed in the past
> hasn\'t worked as I\'m 0 for lifetime in the Derby
> as a handicapper.. lol.

I was a little tough on your selection. Truth be told he was a 1 horse in the California Derby and that gives him a chance. Hollendorfer is/was very high on him. He\'s a success story as it is. With wonderfully discreet back breeding and they bought him for a song as these things go these days.

Who does your buddy like this year Hoss? Maybe Giacomo never came back from his Derby effort and the chip. Though I still think multiple factors coalesced to his benefit Derby day and that the Derby was a bit slower than some scored it.

He could be the winner. Maria\'s Mon is a good sire. Monarchos, Strong Contender, High Limit, Cause to Believe just to name a few. I\'ve got my game face on now and I need to learn to be tolerant of the horses I want to beat.

I bet a Northern California horse one year too and he wasn\'t half bad. His name was Jumron.