Lawyer Ron Wilts Em

Chuckles_the_Clown2 · April 15, 2006, 06:06:47 PM

Lawyer Ron did not come home especially snappy, but he did all his running the first 6 poles. Theres several with that style in the Derby. Its gonna be a barn burner

Sinister Minister
Lawyer Ron
Keyed Entry
Brother Derek

Anyone think the Good Brother is gonna be pressed like he aint never been pressed before? And what about Barbaro trying to stay close to that foursome?

Yowsa

richiebee · April 15, 2006, 10:26:52 PM

Chuckpasser:

Yes, that was quite a performance by the Barrister today. My unjaded view(I didn\'t bet the race after a long day of wrestling with the NYRA product) was that he fought against his rider\'s attempted restraint for about a half mile and coasted home for the last 3/8s. He is now undefeated in main track events, not counting polytrack.(Speaking of Polytrack, the Lane\'s End Winner had the best view of the finish of the Arkansas Derby).

Lawyer looked like an additional furlong in three weeks would present no problem. He is sired by Langfuhr, who was a champion sprinter in Canada, having won some prestigious sprint stakes in New York (Vosburgh,Forego, Carter, Met Mile). Some of Langfuhr\'s get have done well racing at additional distances, most notably Canadian champions Wando (Canadian Triple Crown Winner,I think) and Mobil. And of course there was Imperialism, third in Smarty\'s Derby, who was beaten 6 lengths after racing in traffic for nearly a mile. (Imperialism was carrying the extra weight of my rather large future wager).

Keener students of pace may dispute this, but Steppenwolfer looked to have run a \"suck up\" second. And not to sound like a currently exiled poster, Private Vow probably deserves some consideration for attempting to run with Lawyer during the middle stages of the race. And now here\'s some real modern school of performance figure handicapping heresy-- Private Vow may be the only Dual Qualifier facing the starter if he goes in the Derby. PV has already won a 2 turn stake at CD, will be making his 3rd start of the year, and could be a decent price in exactas, tris, supers, etc.

Sinister Minister-- way to go, Chuckles, I hope the beer was cold. When I see that SA 62500 maiden claiming win it brings back memories of another Derby winner of recent years. Chuckles, I will let you fill me in on Old Trieste as a sire, but I am very familiar with this colt\'s damsire, The Prime Minister. The PM was a Whittingham trained colt by Deputy Minister out of the great producer Stick to Beauty. Stick to Beauty produced GOLD BEAUTY,champion sprinter and dam of Dayjur (European Champion) and Maplejinsky (multiple Gr I SW, dam of Champion Sky Beauty, second dam of BC Distaff winner Pleasant Home). The mere presence of the Stick to Beauty bloodline in this colt\'s pedigree assures that I will bet boldly and blindly on this Baffert blur.

SM will probably be a bit overbet based on his deceptively easy BG win (Imagine they hold a 750K race and none of the contenders show up) and the fact that he will work brilliantly leading up to the Derby. As to First Sam, do you really think Bailey would have retired if this was a Derby colt?

I do not understand, Chuckles, your embrace of Keyed Entry and your disdain of Barbaro. Q: What can you say about Barbaro\'s Fla Derby that you cant say about B and J\'s Wood, or SNS\'s Ill Derby, or Bro Derek\'s SA Derby, or LR\'s Ark Derby or SM\'s Blue Grass? A: Barbaro was the only one of these winners who had to show gameness in the late stages of his race. The others won their preps rather easily, facing overmatched or undermedicated foes. I haven\'t compared numbers yet, but Barbaro is distance enabled and probably can be rated. He will be undefeated and may be underbet come Derby Day.

NYRA note: Risky Agenda, full sister to Riskaverse, 3rd in her first turf try, strong gallop out,likely future stakes performer, somebody please tell Pat Kelly to quit naming Samyn on horses so the old bastard can retire already.

Chuckles_the_Clown2 · April 16, 2006, 05:56:02 AM

Richiebee bee bee,

richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chuckpasser:
>
> Yes, that was quite a performance by
> the Barrister today. My unjaded view(I didn\'t bet
> the race after a long day of wrestling with the
> NYRA product) was that he fought against his
> rider\'s attempted restraint for about a half mile
> and coasted home for the last 3/8s. He is now
> undefeated in main track events, not counting
> polytrack.(Speaking of Polytrack, the Lane\'s End
> Winner had the best view of the finish of the
> Arkansas Derby).

Agree about the Lane\'s End winner. Hey, he won the Lanes End, but then so did Sinister G. They were selling shares in him AFTER the Lane\'s End at 50K. That told you something.

> Lawyer looked like an additional
> furlong in three weeks would present no problem.
> He is sired by Langfuhr, who was a champion
> sprinter in Canada, having won some prestigious
> sprint stakes in New York (Vosburgh,Forego,
> Carter, Met Mile). Some of Langfuhr\'s get have
> done well racing at additional distances, most
> notably Canadian champions Wando (Canadian Triple
> Crown Winner,I think) and Mobil. And of course
> there was Imperialism, third in Smarty\'s Derby,
> who was beaten 6 lengths after racing in traffic
> for nearly a mile. (Imperialism was carrying the
> extra weight of my rather large future wager).

I\'ve never discounted Lawyer Ron on his pedigree.

> Keener students of pace may dispute
> this, but Steppenwolfer looked to have run a \"suck
> up\" second. And not to sound like a currently
> exiled poster, Private Vow probably deserves some
> consideration for attempting to run with Lawyer
> during the middle stages of the race. And now
> here\'s some real modern school of performance
> figure handicapping heresy-- Private Vow may be
> the only Dual Qualifier facing the starter if he
> goes in the Derby. PV has already won a 2 turn
> stake at CD, will be making his 3rd start of the
> year, and could be a decent price in exactas,
> tris, supers, etc.

Tend to agree that Private Vow could still be rounding into form. My nagging concern involves a Derby pace that is swift. A plethora of speed/pressers and a scenario where the one run horses run their honest race, lag behind early and quickly begin picking up the tiring horses at the quarter pole.

> Sinister Minister-- way to go,
> Chuckles, I hope the beer was cold. When I see
> that SA 62500 maiden claiming win it brings back
> memories of another Derby winner of recent years.

I\'ve had a very good last two weeks after a very rocky early T.C. campaign. The beer was cold as if from a spring and ran swiftly bubbling over taste bud pebbles.

Charismatic. Painful memory he beat my horse out of the Derby...Menifee. (Who was a Grandson of Storm Cat I believe...lol) But I got even with him in the Belmont with the Lemon Drop Kid.

> Chuckles, I will let you fill me in on Old Trieste
> as a sire, but I am very familiar with this colt\'s
> damsire, The Prime Minister.

The Old Trieste blood was not lost upon me. Sinister is a grandson of A.p. Indy. In his Derby Old Trieste caught a horrible break, rushed up and had the lead at the mile mark before fading. Old Trieste also ran the best 9 mark race I ever saw and went bad shortly thereafter. Mister Triester, good second in the Illinois Derby is by Old Trieste too. Old Trieste is gone now, but he\'s had some decent runners and obviously the account you give following about his broodmare sire is right on the mark. He was bred to handle ground and had run a deceptively good race vs. Cause to Believe. (Note the rail banging and the guts to keep trying.) The time before that he caught Too Much Bling, who I\'m prepared to anoint the best sprinter in the country. Sinister wants the lead is the way I read his P.P.\'s and he wasn\'t going to get it vs. Bling. Saturday, he figured to inherit the wind. Remember War Emblem? He reminds me of him, especially now post race. Barring trouble, No one in the Derby will be able to outfoot this horse early. That makes him dangerous and he has left me with some concern regarding a speed pop. Geldings and claiming tags don\'t pose an issue with me.

>The PM was a
> Whittingham trained colt by Deputy Minister out of
> the great producer Stick to Beauty. Stick to
> Beauty produced GOLD BEAUTY,champion sprinter and
> dam of Dayjur (European Champion) and Maplejinsky
> (multiple Gr I SW, dam of Champion Sky Beauty,
> second dam of BC Distaff winner Pleasant Home).
> The mere presence of the Stick to Beauty bloodline
> in this colt\'s pedigree assures that I will bet
> boldly and blindly on this Baffert blur.

Baffert has some real pedigree talent, unlike several of the imposters.
My personal belief is that Baffert is very discerning and scary smart. Many of the other guys sleep walk through it. Baffert works with his eyes open.

> SM will probably be a bit overbet
> based on his deceptively easy BG win (Imagine they
> hold a 750K race and none of the contenders show
> up) and the fact that he will work brilliantly
> leading up to the Derby. As to First Sam, do you
> really think Bailey would have retired if this was
> a Derby colt?

First Samurai looked vulnerable since the Breeders Cup Juvenile, but you had to expect more from him in the Bluegrass. I don\'t really care for Giant\'s Causeways. Nor Storm Cats for that matter. If you bred Crafty Prospector to as many good mares he\'d have 2 Derby winners already.

One other item. Strong Contender\'s break turned him into a stalker and he made a nice push along the rail. Someone had to try and pressure Sinister and it fell to Strong Contender. I don\'t think it mattered, Sinister was gonna win the race, but in defeat I gained a some real respect for Strong Contender.

> I do not understand, Chuckles, your
> embrace of Keyed Entry and your disdain of
> Barbaro.

First, I have not embraced Keyed Entry. I merely want Pletcher to run his horses with the best chance. Those horses are Sunriver and Keyed Entry.

> Q: What can you say about Barbaro\'s Fla
> Derby that you cant say about B and J\'s Wood, or
> SNS\'s Ill Derby, or Bro Derek\'s SA Derby, or LR\'s
> Ark Derby or SM\'s Blue Grass? A: Barbaro was the
> only one of these winners who had to show gameness
> in the late stages of his race. The others won
> their preps rather easily, facing overmatched or
> undermedicated foes. I haven\'t compared numbers
> yet, but Barbaro is distance enabled and probably
> can be rated. He will be undefeated and may be
> underbet come Derby Day.

Barbaro doesn\'t rate by my eye. He chug a lugs. He\'s a grinder and he\'s barely grinding his way to the wins on a strip that has been playing to his preference to the front end grind. I just think that all changes Derby Day. In the Derby, hes gonna have to grind much harder early to stay close than hes had to grind in the past. Any trouble, any bad turns from behind and he loses the marginal edge he\'s had against his competition to this point. Now he steps up. I\'m also NOT a big fan of the Florida horses this year. If you remember, they weren\'t much last year either. That said Bandini suckered me into betting him.

Underbet? I think he probably goes off 2nd or 3rd choice in the 5 or 6-1 range. That would be a nice Key if you think thats a fair 6-1.

One other point. If a horse hasn\'t demonstrated gameness prior to the Derby hes in all likelihood a poor bet. SNS showed gameness in the Gotham, so did Keyed Entry. So did Like Now. I thought Bob and John showed heart in the San Felipe with a horror trip. I thought he did so again in the Wood. If you want to create a \"supergame\" perception, thats your prerogative, but gameness for many of these is a given. If on the other hand you believe Barbaro is Silver Charm super game, I see your point, but have my doubts about that.

>
> NYRA note: Risky Agenda, full sister
> to Riskaverse, 3rd in her first turf try, strong
> gallop out,likely future stakes performer,
> somebody please tell Pat Kelly to quit naming
> Samyn on horses so the old bastard can retire
> already.
>

davidrex · April 16, 2006, 06:10:28 AM

Been following Ron for some time and reviewed his video several times.
Someone could build a conspiracy theory over how this animal has increased his stamina w/every race.
Don\'t get me wrong...nothing but curious how a horse that runs 6 panels early in career like hes\' a champ for the first five...then tires....runs fast on turf(his connections choice of surface)early,but has no sprint left in him for the wire.
Ron started running great,(start to finish) in all of 2006,and he\'s done it w/out any time off.Who was the last horse to run 1st sat. in May w/14 starts on his resume?
One thought I have is ...this is one hell of a competitive animal,and if he were to get caught up in a race to the first turn w/the speed that will be prevelant in his next race and the low odds he\'ll be wearing...a bet against at <7/2.
With that said ,I\'m going w/a horse that hasn\'t faced the big man yet!

big18741 · April 16, 2006, 07:05:33 AM

Sinister Minister is bad for Brother Derek who pulls,Lawyer Ron who drags Mckee around and Sharp Humor who wants the front.

Barbaro and Sweetnorthersaint are going to have to sit farther back off it now to be effective.No easy trips sitting second stalking an honest pace.

I don\'t think the distance or the pace is ideal for Keyed Entry.

Baffert is getting a nice setup for his other two if they\'re good enough.

richiebee · April 16, 2006, 08:18:23 AM

CTC:

How dare you compare me to that hack Tolstoy... I\'m a Dostoyevsky man!

MO · April 17, 2006, 10:36:09 AM

Richiebee said:

Keener students of pace may dispute this, but Steppenwolfer looked to have run a \"suck up\" second. And not to sound like a currently exiled poster, Private Vow probably deserves some consideration for attempting to run with Lawyer during the middle stages of the race. And now here\'s some real modern school of performance figure handicapping heresy-- Private Vow may be the only Dual Qualifier facing the starter if he goes in the Derby. PV has already won a 2 turn stake at CD, will be making his 3rd start of the year, and could be a decent price in exactas, tris, supers, etc.

Brother Derek also is a dual qualifier

jbelfior · April 17, 2006, 11:29:46 AM

MO--

I\'d be very suprised if PRIVATE VOW goes to the Derby. If they want to get ambitious, they should wait for Pimlico. Otherwise, I\'d cut back and go in the 1 turn Withers.

My own personal question-marks.

1. Can SWEETNORTHERNSAINT handle the pace pressure he will surely face in Louisville and still finish strongly?

2. How long can BROTHER DEREK stay restrained?

3. When does POINT DETERMINED figure out you also have to run around turns?

4. Does Todd Pletcher really have anything going to Louisville this year?

5. Is the 2006 Baffert the 2005 Zito?

6. Who is ready to pop a lifetime best figure??

Good Luck,
Joe B.

MO · April 18, 2006, 05:55:46 AM

Looking forward to the Arkansas Derby figures. If Private Vow moved forward, then I think he deserves a long look. I am not impressed by this crop, but it has been a long time since a crop of 3 year olds impressed me........

Good luck to you as well.

richiebee · April 18, 2006, 09:01:11 AM

MO:

Thank you for the Dual Qualifier update.

Still think that the best Private Vow could do in the Derby is take down a minor award, and look forward to seeing him perform later in the year.

PV is from the first crop of Broken Vow; 01 Derby winner Monarchos was from the first crop of Maria\'s Mon, so its not unheard of.

marcus · April 18, 2006, 02:00:44 PM

I\'ve been thinking about Keyed Entry chances as well and if that last one was just another
normal regular bounce , he might be \"good to go\"...

Lawyer Ron Wilts Em

Chuckles_the_Clown2

Chuckles_the_Clown2