KEENLAND SATURDAY

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

big18741 Wrote:
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> Anyone else think Strong Contender beats up on
> this field?
>

Will preface this by stating that I\'m not looking at Thorofigs. That said, its hard to say what the betting angle is upon Strong Contender.

His connections are very high upon him. Ward is a good horseman. They\'ve had Monarchos and a Notebook colt whose name I have forgotten. I make him about 4th fastest upon back figures. In that regard Strong Contenders two efforts came upon very glib surfaces with low variants and they were single turn events. Now he\'s stepping up into company thats pretty serious about trying to make the Derby while this guy has been biding his time.

I\'m not a believer in the lightly raced horse for a number of reasons. To some extent I attribute this new approach to TGraph and others, \"Save the horse, space his efforts, watch the bounce.\" Blasmphemy. Abject Blasphemy. If you don\'t have enough horse to run three times as a juvenile and three or four times as a 3YO BEFORE the Derby, then you my friend don\'t have enough horse period. Now, there are exceptions to that, but exceptions are not a modus operandi.

Strong Contender is not at Hallandale any longer. Keeneland played fairly yesterday. Wire Jobbers looked good. Five wide looked good too. The track was not glib. This is his first effort vs. more accomplished horses and even in that he caught a fairly soft spot. Does anyone really think First Samurai and Bluegrass Cat are serious Derby horses? That said, a wager upon Strong Contender is a wager that he will be better going longer against tougher horses than he has faced sprinting.

I don\'t think the Bluegrass was on this horse\'s agenda. I think he wanted a really soft spot in the Lane\'s End and missed it. He has been either mismanaged or gingerly managed to this point. It doesn\'t mean he can\'t win. I don\'t bet significant money on this track, but will you get 5-1 on Strong Contender? Probably not.

The horse that I find interesting is Sinister Minister. This track can favor speed and that raceway at Golden Gate usually produces horses with a quick foot. Many times horses improve second start at two turns and that last effort, albeit in a short field, was not half bad. Cause to Believe is held in high regard by his connections and getting crushed in his last may not have been that bad a race. If it is a speed track, I\'m gonna look for Sinister Minister to cut the heart out of Strong Contender and bury it at about the quarter pole.

First Samurai the favorite to factor.

[marcus]

Well Rich , were just gonna\' have to report you for that  - Just Kidding  ...

At KEE Sinister Minister is my mystery horse though for me that line plays better when it\'s a fillie pattern and Strong Contender looks interesting but w/ only 2 numbers to go on .

In the ARK I\'m viewing Lawyer Ron\'s last number as a mixed sign and my thinking is that he get\'s the bounce out of the way before the Derby and looking for Sayhellotolarry to continue forging ahead in pattern while possibly working out the \" Imaculate Trip \" .  

[P-Dub]

Thanks Rich, you too High Roller.

I like Little Cliff some too.  Nice pattern and he could run up into the exacta like Jazil last week.  Nice call by the guys on that one last week.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Chuckles_the_Clown2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> big18741 Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Anyone else think Strong Contender beats up
> on
> > this field?
> >
>
> Will preface this by stating that I\'m not looking
> at Thorofigs. That said, its hard to say what the
> betting angle is upon Strong Contender.
>
> His connections are very high upon him. Ward is a
> good horseman. They\'ve had Monarchos and a
> Notebook colt whose name I have forgotten. I make
> him about 4th fastest upon back figures. In that
> regard Strong Contenders two efforts came upon
> very glib surfaces with low variants and they were
> single turn events. Now he\'s stepping up into
> company thats pretty serious about trying to make
> the Derby while this guy has been biding his
> time.
>
> I\'m not a believer in the lightly raced horse for
> a number of reasons. To some extent I attribute
> this new approach to TGraph and others, \"Save the
> horse, space his efforts, watch the bounce.\"
> Blasmphemy. Abject Blasphemy. If you don\'t have
> enough horse to run three times as a juvenile and
> three or four times as a 3YO BEFORE the Derby,
> then you my friend don\'t have enough horse period.
> Now, there are exceptions to that, but exceptions
> are not a modus operandi.
>
> Strong Contender is not at Hallandale any longer.
> Keeneland played fairly yesterday. Wire Jobbers
> looked good. Five wide looked good too. The track
> was not glib. This is his first effort vs. more
> accomplished horses and even in that he caught a
> fairly soft spot. Does anyone really think First
> Samurai and Bluegrass Cat are serious Derby
> horses? That said, a wager upon Strong Contender
> is a wager that he will be better going longer
> against tougher horses than he has faced
> sprinting.
>
> I don\'t think the Bluegrass was on this horse\'s
> agenda. I think he wanted a really soft spot in
> the Lane\'s End and missed it. He has been either
> mismanaged or gingerly managed to this point. It
> doesn\'t mean he can\'t win. I don\'t bet significant
> money on this track, but will you get 5-1 on
> Strong Contender? Probably not.
>
> The horse that I find interesting is Sinister
> Minister. This track can favor speed and that
> raceway at Golden Gate usually produces horses
> with a quick foot. Many times horses improve
> second start at two turns and that last effort,
> albeit in a short field, was not half bad. Cause
> to Believe is held in high regard by his
> connections and getting crushed in his last may
> not have been that bad a race. If it is a speed
> track, I\'m gonna look for Sinister Minister to cut
> the heart out of Strong Contender and bury it at
> about the quarter pole.
>
> First Samurai the favorite to factor.
>

KaChing

Whose your daddy.

lol

Now the question is do they even send Blue Grass Cat and First Samurai?
Wait til Jerry makes a number on that race.

[miff]

Derby candidates,First Samurai, Bluegrass Cat, Strong Contender, RIP!!!

[Silver Charm]

Agreed.

It will be the Baffert show in three weeks.

And deservedly so.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

miff Wrote:
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> Derby candidates,First Samurai, Bluegrass Cat,
> Strong Contender, RIP!!!

Those were three vastly overrated favorites. 8-5, 2-1 and 5-2 and had not demonstrated Derby affinity.

To my eye that was the first race of the day where a horse \"freaked\". I liked Sinister, but obviously never foresaw that. The issue being \"what does that say of the figure\"? Its obviously fast. Maybe freaky fast. But it is the only 2-turn race on the card. AGAIN

If this race is commentary upon the race favorites, its potentially commentary upon a couple of other highly regarded horses.

Beer time

...Well, we still have the Lexington and Derby Trial to go. Throw in the Actual Entries, Post Positions and Pace Analysis and we\'ve got ourselves a Derby to win.