The Wise Guy's Horse

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

You can\'t be tuning in to the various Thoroughbred news sources without getting the distinct impression that A.P.Warrior is highly regarded for the Derby and that he will be high enough odds to be the proverbial \"Wise Guy\'s Horse\".  

Handicappers here have called him. Steve Haskin is high on him. Theres others as well who slip my mind. Why is that? What has this horse really done to get so many otherwise rational minds going gaga over him?

Does it have something to do with the fact that his new trainer is last years Derby winning conditioner? That must be part of it.

Well he is by A.p. Indy out of a Quiet American mare. Thats pretty impressive, but how many A.p. Indy colts have won a Derby or a Triple Crown race for that matter? Granting his 3YO fillies have faired a little better.

The fact is the A.p. Indy colts have done better at 4 or 5 than 3. They also tend to want to run close to the pace, which isnt ideal for a maturing horse.

Apparently, there are those that are having Silver Charm Sugar Plum visions in their heads off the Santa Anita Derby. They say that Brother Derek had it all his own way and that some horse had to press him and that horse by default became A.P.Warrior. They say that A.P.Warrior gamely closed to a length and then hung and will be that much better for the effort next time in a manner similar to Silver Charms Santa Anita Derby. Is anyone else highly skeptical about that?

If my memory serves, Silver Charm went after a filly named Sharp Cat carving out blazing fractions. He caught her and he put that loose on the lead filly away. Thereafter he battled very gamely when a fresh and off the pace Free House came to him in the stretch. That was a gut check effort and Silver Charm did not disgrace himself in the grit he demonstrated in a close defeat.

Does anyone really think that A.P. Warrior demonstrated any of that grit in the Santa Anita Derby by spitting the bit after 6 poles? What about in consideration of the pace he hung upon late?

I\'ll tell you what I think. I think Point Determined was gonna grind him down in the 8.5 San Felipe with a little more ground and I think Point Determined ground him down in the Santa Anita Derby at 9 panels and unless you believe that Shireffs has the impeccable timing to get a career top out of A.P. Warrior on Derby Day I think Point Determined is going to mow him down at 10 poles.

It wasn\'t Shireffs timing that got Giacomo up last year and where in A.P.Warriors past performances does anyone see him dominating at 8.5 marks or looking like he wants more?

[NoCarolinaTony]

Ctc,

I have to admit this post makes a lot of sense. WHat I would do if I were you, would be to let hover thinks AP is the next Silver Charm think that. You\'ll get better value elsewhere that way. I think the Derby winner is running this weekend.

NC Tony

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

NoCarolinaTony Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Ctc,
>
> I have to admit this post makes a lot of sense.
> WHat I would do if I were you, would be to let
> hover thinks AP is the next Silver Charm think
> that. You\'ll get better value elsewhere that way.
> I think the Derby winner is running this weekend.
>
> NC Tony

You are probably right. Though not sure about the Derby winner coming from the Saturday preps. There are two horses from those preps that could win the Derby and they both are running in the same race. One is a favorite and the other a dark horse.

[NoCarolinaTony]

I\'ll be \"live\" at Keeneland this weekend, but I think the 13 horse Arkansas Derby is the race that will give you the best indication for the Derby.

Strong Contender is a mystery Horse but a lot of \"Wise Guys\" I know are touting this horse.  For sure this Race has got to be his Derby in order to get into the \"Derby\".

NC Tony

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Yes, agree from a betting perspective.

Strong needs it.

First Samurai and Bluegrass are both in. Tend to think Samurai is a little better than Bluegrass here factoring pace and bias, but a fair track and  distance affinity could shake that up.

They think highly of Stong, but he hasn\'t faced anything. They will probably be the 3 favorites and run to it.

[tmon]

I watched the race on tv. It looked like the jockey asked A.P. Warrior 3 times. The first time after the start to be near the pace. The second time was on the backstrech when Point Determined moved up next to him. That\'s when he was sent up next to Brother Derek. So after that it isn\'t surprising that he didn\'t have a lot left in the stretch. Now whether that makes him a bet in the Kentucky Derby is another thing.

[RICH]

I doubt he\'s this years wise guy horse. He shows a very solid 2 yr old pattern, and lets say he hit the 1 in the san felipe. On memory here, I think there is about 4-5 pts of development here between 2 and 3yrs old, there is more room a 1-2 pt top puts him there. He ran much a very different race in the SA derby than prior, he had several in front of him and made that nice move as opposed to that race in the derby where he had to chase a lone on the lead BD, that race was no indication of the race he will run on derby day where he will sit 6th or 7th,  still think he has a chance to hit board at 20-1