Empire Maker/Florida Derby

[congaree1]

If i remember he crushed the Florida Derby, off a pair of 6\'s. Incredible he would be 25-1 on number power in this race.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

8 of the 11 horses entered in this race are Triple Crown Nominees. Of those 8, only 1 currently has enough Graded Earnings to make it into the Derby. That horse is Barbaro. Flashy Bull is close, but he needs a top three finish here for enhanced security.

Barbaro is the \"best\" horse at this point. (Although he hasn\'t run as fast as a couple, I believe he beats them all things being equal.) But things are not equal, Barbaro breaks from outside which is \"historically\" a difficult place to be on this new oval. Additionally, because he already has enough Graded Earnings, you have to wonder if they are gonna push him here. Maybe that\'s not a legitimate concern. Maybe because he is so lightly raced and the Derby is Next and 5 weeks out this is a \"GO\" effort. We\'ll see. I don\'t like this horse\'s road to Churchill Downs. He will have 3 starts, but this is apparently the last one before the Derby and one of his starts was January 1st on the lawn. He\'ll be favored today and to my eye he has a lot to overcome. We\'ll judge by this race.  

I believe Pletcher believes Sunriver is a top class horse. Its rare that horses come up to the ability of their stakes winning siblings but for some strange reason I believe Sunriver may have enough ability to earn some Black Type here. Cot Campbell is talking like Saint Augustus has a big chance. I don\'t buy it. Velasquez makes the mount change off a big win on Augustus. For my money Sunriver is the better of the two and T-Graph backs that up on numbers. Sunriver will probably be second choice, but to my eye he is a must include.

Which brings me to my key, but first the rundown.

Hesanoldsalt - Back to a track he has liked with blinkers on to keep him in the race earlier. I\'m expecting a much improved effort. Don\'t favor him to win at this point, but he could wake up and make the exotics. Its a question of do you want to spread that far with this one? I\'m not sure.

Flashy Bull - He\'ll top a lot of tickets. He\'s proven against some good horses and his trainer is very warm now. Clearly could win.

Saint Augustus - He beat Doc Cheney. He did beat Rehoboth. Any horse named \"Cheney\" can\'t be much. Rehoboth was still coming around when Saint beat him. This is not a bad horse. Just not gonna bet Pletcher 1-2

Sunriver - Obviously I like him

Rehobeth - Wish I knew what \"Rehoboth\" means. No Idea, but I like the horse he will be in my perfectas.

Sharp Humor - This horse is most definitely not Funny Cide. Not even close. That was a fine Swale Sprint win, back that if you wish.

High Blues - Low percentage trainer, been beaten by every horse in here and then some. You guessed it. He\'s my key.

Charming Image - He certainly likes the track. Big jump in the level of competiton.

Barbaro - The \"Just be Careful\" horse. I want my trainer to be brash and have confidence. This horse\'s trainer is a real life American Hero. None of this make believe Pat Tillman, Jessica Lynch, manufactured hero\'s for propaganda type of stuff. He\'s the real deal, but he\'s not been very courageous with this horse. Let\'s see if theres a reason for that.

Sam\'s Ace - Well he\'s your call.

[bobphilo]

Chuckles_the_Clown2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Barbaro - The \"Just be Careful\" horse. I want my
> trainer to be brash and have confidence. This
> horse\'s trainer is a real life American Hero. None
> of this make believe Pat Tillman, Jessica Lynch,
> manufactured hero\'s for propaganda type of stuff.
> He\'s the real deal, but he\'s not been very
> courageous with this horse. Let\'s see if theres a
> reason for that.

Chuckles, Excellent observation on Michael Matz. like all real hero\'s, he\'s only heroic when he has to be. I like the way he\'s handling this horse. He\'s getting the earnings, keeping him on the schedule that works for him and might even be ready for Epsom Derby if he doesn\'t take to the dirt.

Bob