A Correction

[richiebee]

In a previous post I stated that Gotham winner Like Now was not nominated for the Triple Crown series. Further review proves that LN is indeed eligible. I stand corrected.

[bellsbendboy]

Like Now will certainly not win a triple crown race and the Gotham win was a total freak. I read, where some on this forum were touting him because of some nice numbers, but lets be \'cappers for a moment. His only lure was his price!  He twice was tagged, against maidens, as a two year old for goodness sakes, and had never ventured further than six panels. His pedigree screams a mile and a sixteenth is this geldings limit.  I know your point is that he is nominated and do not mean to rant, but this homebred is fifty-fifty to ever win again. BBB

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

That trainer got a more lightly bred horse to come within a jump of winning the Kentucky Derby.

He was bearing out at the end, but I\'d be very careful ignoring that horse.

[shanahan]

Charismatic was running for a tag in February...from my read, LikeNow on the figs looked to have a chance going long with steady progression...then my thought was confirmed by Alan via his interview on Inside Racing...his price made me make a side bet to win to cover, but I think it\'s feasible for him to go on.

[richiebee]

BBB:
I will go a step further. I believe it is highly unlikely that LN RUNS in a Triple Crown race. Like Now is in very good form though and his trainer is going very well at present.

Agree with Mr. Clown that Professor Prado\'s lesson in rating might have cost Keyed Entry the race. Am beginning to like Keyed Entry because he has now run well on 3 different surfaces, the kind of versatility that is desirable in a 3Y0 that will be aked to ship around. I would like to see KE head down to Hot Springs to burst the bubble of this year\'s Holthus/ McGee Derby pretender. I read however that KE goes in the Wood with Bluegrass Cat, who is already a course/ distance SW at Aq

[NoCarolinaTony]

Richie,

Wasn\'t KE gaining on LN (Hd) at the wire? The Gotham was 8.5 G3 PREP (emphaisi on PREP) and the derby is 10F?

Maybe it was a good lesson for KE. If anyone thought they were gunning KE with Prado up you were crazy to think that. He was up for a reason. Leason Learned at our expense.

NC Tony

[bobphilo]

Richibee,

Prado rod KE perfectly. I\'ll give you the exact figures when I do the pace analysis which you can see at my group. Yes he could have put pressure on LN - at his own expense, like Rock Hard Ten and Eddigton stupidly did in the Smarty Jones Belmont where they in effect became rabbits for Birdstone. However, since KE wasn\'t entered as a rabbit, what good would it have done to wear out LN and himself in the process and set it up for anybody else with enough brains to rate if the battle if they had gone at it early? Check out the analysis and you\'ll see. He ran the best race he could pace-wise. The real reason he lost was that he went a path widder than the winner on both turns. That cost him 2 lengths which was more than the neck he lost by. The biggest loser was poor Sweetnorthernsaint who went 3 wide both turns and was 4 lengths better than the 3/4 length he lost by.
The race was not pace, it was trip - plus the injury to Achilles. Read the analysis and see.

Bob

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

>I would like to see KE
> head down to Hot Springs to burst the bubble of
> this year\'s Holthus/ McGee Derby pretender. I read
> however that KE goes in the Wood with Bluegrass
> Cat, who is already a course/ distance SW at Aq


Very Bold opinion there Mr. Richie. Very Bold Indeed.

Lawyer Ron is obviously going to stay at home to try and take the big purse in the Ark. There is some talk of Sweetnorthernsaint going to the Illinois Derby and that would be a big break for Keyed Entry. Key may be able to speed pop the Wood depending upon the field, but Lawyer Ron is way too much horse for him. Pletcher has his eggs in Bluegrass Cat and thats a shaky basket.

A hat rack is an inanimate object that is useful only as a place to place one\'s hat. It has no identity of its own. It acquires some identity depending upon whose hat rests there.

Maybe it wasn\'t all business between Ernie and the Rack. He did seem to vaciliate from disdain to shes great quickly. Thats the type of stuff of Romance.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

NoCarolinaTony Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Richie,
>
> Wasn\'t KE gaining on LN (Hd) at the wire? The
> Gotham was 8.5 G3 PREP (emphaisi on PREP) and the
> derby is 10F?
>
> Maybe it was a good lesson for KE. If anyone
> thought they were gunning KE with Prado up you
> were crazy to think that. He was up for a reason.
> Leason Learned at our expense.
>
> NC Tony

Prado was up because Velasquez opted for Tampa Bay with the Fast Cat. Prado also rated his horse out of the win. Most Likely, Prado will get to ride him in the Derby too. The difference being, he missed a chance to win in the Gotham.

[BitPlayer]

I notice that the DRF poll has Lawyer Ron as the most impressive winner this weekend, but a few things seem to point in a different direction:

McKee said LR didn\'t handle the dirt in his face well in the first turn, was tossing his head about, and didn\'t settle until McKee got him outside leaving the turn.

Either Holthus or McKee said the outer paths were favored at Oaklawn on Saturday.  (Any thoughts on that from someone who played the card?)

Beyer and Bris both have the Rebel as the slowest of the weekend preps.

[rando]

Iplayed Oaklawn and the best I could classify Oak. on Sat. is MEDIUM CLOSER tendancy. OUTSIDE OR INSIDE I DIDN\'T GET A STRONG OPINION.I do NOT give a bias very easilyas I base my major advantage on the ability to judge when a horse path ,speed,or closer give them or the numbers,fig a mis/statement..

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

BitPlayer Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I notice that the DRF poll has Lawyer Ron as the
> most impressive winner this weekend, but a few
> things seem to point in a different direction:
>
> McKee said LR didn\'t handle the dirt in his face
> well in the first turn, was tossing his head
> about, and didn\'t settle until McKee got him
> outside leaving the turn.
>
> Either Holthus or McKee said the outer paths were
> favored at Oaklawn on Saturday.  (Any thoughts on
> that from someone who played the card?)
>
> Beyer and Bris both have the Rebel as the slowest
> of the weekend preps.

I thought the key races for figuring the track were the 7th, 10th and 11th. Especially the 7th. Theres really no telling what Beyer and Bris are doing. There was a pretty good horse in that race named Private Vow. He may not have been ready to fire his better shot, but the race time was very good and Lawyer Ron did it easy.

Who does Ron have to beat First Samurai? Keyed Entry? Bluegrass Cat? Does anyone really think beating those three confer evidence of Derby ability?



Heres Smarty Jones Rebel Fractions from two years ago. Lawyer Ron may not be Smarty Jones, but not many are.

Smarty also caught a better strip.

23.45, 47.65, 1:12.10, 1:36.06, 1:42.07

I just don\'t understand people. Hold on, let me check the TSheets for the Gotham again in regard to why so many think there was a Coup of some sort...

Achilles was essentially a Zero Horse.

Keyed Entry was essentially a Zero Horse Adding the Weight.

Sweetnorthernsaint was essentially a Zero horse taking the weight off.

Achilles was essentially even with the other two and got in trouble. Whats all the fuss about?

You mean folks are able to discern how they were robbed by a horses connections stiffing a sure thing and yet can\'t discern how they\'ve been manipulated and had their country taken from them by their own government.

Bizarre

[big18741]

I have no clue about AOT\'s health during the week and the running of the Gotham.

The way they ran that race he can\'t be in the exacta and likely the tri even if he was at 100%.

Boat race.Single file -no change in order-crawling pace.If I bet on AOT I\'d be more pissed about the way the race unfolded.Dead meat after the 1/2-no way those horses come back to him where he\'s highweight and has to circle the field.

Holthus lives for Oaklawn-You think Lawyer Ron will have any gas left in his tank at Churchill?

Trying to find a horse that is improving-hasn\'t really peaked yet who I think can run a zero on Derby Day.

Its too early to have run sub zero IMO.Smarty Jones was an exception-a freak from day one and wasn\'t even doing it on Lasix and whatever else these guys are using.

Bro Derek/First Samurai/Keyed Entry/Lawyer Ron/Aot all fast horses,but looking elsewhere for my Derby horse.

[big18741]

That trainer is trying to nurse Flashy Bull to the Derby.Slow,but getting better.

Fla Derby run should be interesting.PLetcher needs earnings for Sun River so you know he\'s pedal to the metal.Romans trying to stretch out his sprinter.Barbaro also in.Looking for a decent finish for Flashy Bull-maybe improve a little from the FOY and then Mclaughlin has 5 weeks to pound on him and get him ready.