"Free"dom of Speech

[Silver Charm]

Agree with Brad Free\'s observations on High Limit in the Big Cap. Frankels consistent concerns over his ability to get the distance should be cause for pause. However if High Limit is as sharp as he was in the Strub he will be right in the mix of a race that figures to have a ton a pace. And a handful of riders playing chicken with each other on who is going to try and make a run for it first.

Drum Major may also be another play. I bet Drum Major last out, troubled trip would be an understatement, in another big field it wouldn\'t be unreasonable to assume he would have another one. The outside post doesn\'t help, others are faster, but if you can get 10-1 or more then take a little.

At the Track the First Amendment means put your money where your mouth is. I will be more than happy to do so if I just get Bob Barker and Nikki Zeiring to do the Post Parade display for me.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Thought the Big Cap was a layover. Need to check the TFigs and will shortly, but Lava Man was the fastest horse on my past performances.

High Limit had a difficult task. Two theories mitigated against him. The first was the legitmacy of the Strub figure. Some were very adamant that figure was a full 3 points + slower than assigned. Assuming it was accurate the chance for bounce off career top with increased distance was manifest. The probability of him winning that race regardless was small. It was a very nice trifecta.

My personal belief is that High Limit never came close to a Negative 1.5 in the Strub and that Bob and John is a pretty good 3YO. Its also my belief that Santa Anita was NOT slowing down on Strub day, regardless of what the track super may think. In fact, it was most likely speeding up.

Bob and John\'s race next.

First Samurai is clearly overrated.

CtC

Silver Charm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Agree with Brad Free\'s observations on High Limit
> in the Big Cap. Frankels consistent concerns over
> his ability to get the distance should be cause
> for pause. However if High Limit is as sharp as he
> was in the Strub he will be right in the mix of a
> race that figures to have a ton a pace. And a
> handful of riders playing chicken with each other
> on who is going to try and make a run for it
> first.
>
> Drum Major may also be another play. I bet Drum
> Major last out, troubled trip would be an
> understatement, in another big field it wouldn\'t
> be unreasonable to assume he would have another
> one. The outside post doesn\'t help, others are
> faster, but if you can get 10-1 or more then take
> a little.
>
> At the Track the First Amendment means put your
> money where your mouth is. I will be more than
> happy to do so if I just get Bob Barker and Nikki
> Zeiring to do the Post Parade display for me.
>
>

[miff]

CTC,

While I agree that Big Cap day figs are subject to debate, I feel that High Limits performance yesterday has little to do with confirming or debunking(sp) the TG fig HL ran on Big Cap day.I stongly felt, going in, that HL was distance challanged and obviously regressed.To me, this does not mean that he did not run the negative figure awarded by TG on Big Cap day.

On the other hand, a very serious question is the fig assigned to Bob and John on Big Cap Day especially when looking at the TG figs awarded to the 3yr olds  in the FOY yesterday. Several of them had equal or better TG Figs than Bob and John\'s 5 TG fig, however it is noteworthy that Beyer, Rags and two other fig makers had Bob and John faster than all of these 3yr olds except for First S.

Of course all of the TG figs were earned at different tracks under different circumstances so only time will tell.

[miff]

Jerry,

Seems that Beyer has revisited Bob and Johns performance on 2/4 in the Sham at SA.The old Beyer of 96 is now 102. I discussed with you that the 5 you awarded Bob and John was a bit high. Have you revisited that day (2/4) yet?. Quite a few horses have run back from that day and I heard thats why Beyer changed.

Mike

[TGAB]

JB is out of the office for the weekend. So he may not respond until he gets back to the office.  

[Silver Charm]

Alan in JB\'s absence you will probably very busy.

If you need me to do the Race-of-the-Week, I\'m available.

[TGJB]

Miff-- the only question about that day is the Bob and John race (whether the track started getting slower one race earlier than I had it). It was a short field of lightly raced horses with healthy patterns, and it may be hard to tell even after they have run a couple more times what is right-- they figure to run new tops soon regardless. If the 3 that paired up(by memory), or even 2 of them, all go forward about the SAME amount the next time, that would be pretty strong evidence that the figure should be better (meaning, they were just pairing the figure the next time).

I did see that one horse went forward. But I have to say I\'m pretty surprised if Beyer really changed the figures for a whole race based on the performance of one horse coming back.

[miff]

Jerry,

I saw the original Beyer of 96 and the revised 102 in print.I really do not know the exact details of why the change was made but I know that several runners on that card have run back.I assume that after evaluating the subsequent performances of runners on that 2/4 card, it made more sense to Beyer to raise the figure to 102.I\'m trying to get an explanation from Andy or Mark Hopkins.If I do,I\'ll post it.

I\'m interested to know, after more horses run back, if you still \"like\' your 5 for Bob and John on Big Cap Day.Thanks.


Mike

[TGJB]

Miff-- don\'t know what Beyer did with any races other than those 2 stakes, but as i said, there is only one race in question, so whatever happens with horses out of other races has no effect. If I change the race I\'ll post it, but it will take quite a bit of evidence-- for the reasons I said before. It will be hard to tell either way, for at least a couple of races for each horse.