First Samurai and FOY

[bobphilo]

I keep hearing comments about how the FOY exposed First Sam\'s distance limitations. One of the few patterns that I truly believe in that has been tested over time is the bounce off a hard race off a layoff. FS was fried by chasing one of the few horses faster than him (Keyed Entry) and set a life-time top off the lay-off in his last race. If that\'s not a set-up tp bounce, I don\'t know what is?
The fact that FS was able to come on again while being fouled twice in the stretch indicates it wasn\'t a distance problem. Of course, he may not be a stayer after all, but the FOY was hardly the definitive test of that.

Bob

[Silver Charm]

Why would an owner want to go thru all of the criticism. Because he has a horse who doesn\'t look like he wants a mile and a quarter.

The stuff has already started. \"He lost going two turns\". \"He\'s just a sprinter\". \"The DQ win was cheap\".  

Retire the horse now. Let all the naysayers say, \"I told ya so\". To wake up everyday and hear your horse get trashed. I mean who needs it.

Take your money and move on.

[miff]

silver said:

\"Why would an owner want to go thru all of the criticism. Because he has a horse who doesn\'t look like he wants a mile and a quarter.

The stuff has already started. \"He lost going two turns\". \"He\'s just a sprinter\". \"The DQ win was cheap\".

Retire the horse now. Let all the naysayers say, \"I told ya so\". To wake up everyday and hear your horse get trashed. I mean who needs it.

Take your money and move on\"End quote

Silver,

----or let him keep going and disprove the naysayers.You must admit that was not a performance that inspires confidence. Loose on the lead, slow pace(for the day) outquicked on the turn by Corinthian and chased all the way to the wire by Flashy Bull.

Regarding him bouncing, that previous negative effort, on a blazing fast wet track, should be looked out only if he shows up on a wet surface, imo. he has earned his two best figs(Beyers) and TG? on wet fast surfaces.

[Silver Charm]

Miff,

I just returned from watching Tiger win at Doral. Missed a couple putts there, had a nice lead and was life and death to hold on, still doesn\'t know where his driver is going half the time. See where I am going with this.

The last three eighths yesterday went in 37. The opening half was 48 and the three quarters was 1:12. This after the Hutchinson where the half was 43 and three quarters was 1:07. Next thing you will be hearing is he\'s a one-paced rat.

About twenty years ago a nice horse got re-put up in the Fla Derby in a controversial finish.

A few years later another nice horse was beaten in the Hutchinson, won the FOY by a nose and got run down late in the Fla Derby.

Neither one of those horses got a Mile and a Quarter on the first Saturday in May.

Those horses names were Chiefs Crown and Forty Niner. Racing would be lucky to have another one as good as those two.

Maybe the Stud Barn gets this one First.

[marcus]

Your take on FS is estute in my estimation - long term pattern implications of all those real fast 2 yo numbers ( and the spacing of those race\'s as well ) are big questions for the horse and is likely the best argument for early retierment and not the distance issue . If FS did in fact bounce last time , it probably bode\'s well for his chances of making it out of his 3 yo year in one piece  .  If it were my call , I\'d lay him off after the Derby ( unless he wins it ) untill the BC and w/ no preps , in an attempt to keep the prospect of breeding one day a viable one .
FS pattern might be showing early signs of deterioration even before he\'s out of his 2 yo campaign by virtue of not moving forward or backward off those big efforts .

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

bobphilo Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I keep hearing comments about how the FOY exposed
> First Sam\'s distance limitations. One of the few
> patterns that I truly believe in that has been
> tested over time is the bounce off a hard race off
> a layoff. FS was fried by chasing one of the few
> horses faster than him (Keyed Entry) and set a
> life-time top off the lay-off in his last race. If
> that\'s not a set-up tp bounce, I don\'t know what
> is?
> The fact that FS was able to come on again while
> being fouled twice in the stretch indicates it
> wasn\'t a distance problem. Of course, he may not
> be a stayer after all, but the FOY was hardly the
> definitive test of that.
>
> Bob

No, the FOY was not definitive test. Just additional evidence. Maybe he\'ll win the Florida Derby.

[NoCarolinaTony]

CtC,

FS is headed for the Bluegrass Stakes at Kee.

FYI

NC Tony

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

thx, wasn\'t aware of that.

Though if I owned that horse I\'d also do all I could to get him loose on the lead at Keeneland.

NoCarolinaTony Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> CtC,
>
> FS is headed for the Bluegrass Stakes at Kee.
>
> FYI
>
> NC Tony