ROTW

[davidrex]

   
     Alphabet Kisses has a pattern going that for the last 10 years is the most powerful in racing.

     A horse coming off a dirt sprint w/blinkers,then routing on the grass w/blinkers off wins 28% of time.(over 200 samplings)

     In the last 6 months,said horse has won 25%,with an ROI of +3.84(6for25)

     j/t is a big +...blinks off 20%...has good early lick...2nd /lay is trainers worst fig by far...possesses(is that really a word?) top # within a pattern of #\'s that can win this race.

     Odds are lower than i would like,but isn;t that always the case!

     More on this breaking story later.

[SoCalMan2]

No offense, but I think Alphabet Kisses looks terrible.  Aside from how the Thoro-Pattern looks, this mare\'s routes are always worse than her sprints and her turf outings are worse than her dirt outings. She has always moved backward going to routes and her turf numbers are always worse than her surrounding figures.  While I think you can throw out the last race, she still would be moving backward off a 5 which is what would be needed here.  I very much like the ROTW analysis.  In addition to the nod to Memorette and Thrilling Victory, I think Queenmab\'sdaughter is very interesting (as hinted to in the ROTW).  

I am not sure how that generic blinkers stat can apply to individual horses.  I acknowledge that you can see on some horses that blinkers off has a huge impact (Volponi instantly comes to mind -- especially on Rags (but you need the PPs to get the right blinker info because they had it wrong on the sheet)), but this mare just went off at 7-5 with blinkers off and lost by 8 lengths in a race that is her bread and butter.

The only thing she has going for her is that I am throwing her out!

[davidrex]

     Just been corrected on the HOT angle ...its\' blinkers on after a dirt sprint and going 2 turns today...oh well!

     T.G. figure-base shows p. val pairing or topping out at 86%.Only small sampling but these two click at 33% winners when coupled.Jock stays w/horse even after being eased ...good sign.
     10/1 or close to it and i\'m in to win.Memorette trainer comes in 2nd or third 50% and this horse is right in line w/connections enthusiasm.
     Kisses at >6/1../ Memorette /ALL.  Kisses/all/Memorette
     

[flushedstraight]

Memorette is scratched...

TG, I hope you use this format again. I for one prefer it but beggars can\'t be choosers.

[davidrex]

     Its\' races like this that don\'t win you any new customers.but at 3/5 ,the only play was to either beat the odds-on or pass.
     He wins easy ,but all he beat was an animal who can\'t get a mile even w/P. Val in the reins.
     Next time!

[msola1]

Jerry,

In the analysis you say about Overnightsensation,

\"Let's say she has 30% chance of running her figure and that gives her a 30% chance of winning, it is the second fastest figure that works out to 11-1 odds.\"

How do you arrive at the 30% chance of winning?

[TGJB]

Alan wrote ROTW this week, he\'s off today and tomorrow. My guess is that he was just giving a rough estimate, by way of example.

But in general, that\'s a good way to figure out what price you should accept-- estimate the horse\'s chance of running his number, and the percentage chance of winning if he does. If you multiply them, you get a rough estimate of the overall chance of the horse winning.

I wrote a column discussing this in the DRF before the Belmont one year, saying Silver Charm was about 50% to run another good one, and 50% to win if he did, meaning that he was only 25% to win the race. For whatever reason it got Baffert really pissed off, and he called me all kinds of names in a column in the NY Post. Took about a year before we got past it.

[Silver Charm]

>Took about a year before we got past it.

For him or you or both.

Maybe that was just his way of saying, BUTT OUT!!

[muskratthecat]

MEMORETTE, scratched yesterday from the ROTW, shows up for the 6th at S.A. today.

[msola1]

Jerry,

If ALan is available, I\'d still like an answer to my question. Establishing a horse\'s percentage chance of winning with a particular number has been a thorny problem for me. I\'d appreciate some insight.

Mike

[TGAB]

JB was right. It was a rough estimate. Toss the first three efforts, two on dirt, and first on turf. You then have four grass races to deal with. Now forgiving the layoff effort, you have three to look at and Overnightsensation ran a 5 in one of those three.

I said 30% primarily because she did run that competitive figure once and as I\'ve said in the past the most likely indication that a horse will run a competitive figure is the fact that it\'s done it before. So she gets credit for that effort. But as I said in the Rotw her overall pattern was suspect. But she was lightly raced. So I dampened the prospect slightly to 30%. It\'s easy to say now that that was a rose-glassed projection, but it was an estimate.

A 5 from the 2-hole getting weight had to give her some shot. Moscow Burning had the only close turf figures in the recent past and was a deserving favorite as I stated. But with conditions, I thought she was vulnerable. Others were either slower, or were dirt horses with some back turf figures, making the reads more dubious. So I came up with again a 3 in 10 chance that the 5 would be good.

Multiply the chances of running the figure, .3, by its winning chances, .3, and you come up with .09, which converts to about 11-1--1/.09.

These were rough estimates borne by experience. It\'s a useful exercise to get a sense what\'s fair value and, hence, underlays and overlays. It\'s a step in generating your own odds line. But frankly, it takes some experience, to make  accurate lines.