Brother Derek

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Looks like the consensus here is that Stevie Wonder Boy takes a rematch with Brother Derek. That rematch is scheduled to be at 8.5 furlongs in the Santa Catalina.

I\'m much less confident SWB is gonna turn the tables there. Brother Derek now owns 3 two turn wins and clearly he wasnt as close to SWB in the Breeders Cup Juvenile as he is now. Was it pace that impacted the B.C. Juvenile loss? Maybe that was part of it. Derek\'s BC Juvenile certainly was better than it appears though. Henny Hughes ran a nice race that day too.

Brother Derek has some extremely sneaky breeding. The family prong that looks weakest is the most interesting to me.  Can he go 9 furlongs? On his Past Performances hard to see why he wont. SWB failed to run Derek down at two turns Saturday. A little more pace and a little more fitness will get Stevie up going two turns for sure right? Did anyone calculate their respective closing fractions? If they came home slow where was Stevie?



CtC

[Silver Charm]

Bother Derek is this years Masterful Advocate.........

Write it down.......

[bobphilo]

Appearances can be deceiving. Lots of horses can seem to be running easily while setting a pretty good pace. While it's true that in the average race the 3rd quarter fraction tends to slow down, a good horse can run a good first half and still throw in a fast 3rd quarter and not pay the price until the final eight (which is what we saw in the San Rafael). I think using the fractions of other route races that day is not a particularly good way to determine track speed because it introduces the confounding variable of how much the horses are being rated in those races.
I find the best way to determine whether a pace was fast, slow or medium for a given race is to compare the time for the first half with the second half. If there's a big difference, the pace was hot and the front-runner probably cooked himself. The other extreme is when there is no difference or the last half is actually faster than the first (rarely seen), which gives the front-runner a big advantage. The best way of doing this is to compare how much faster than even pace the fractions for the half and 3 quarters are, given the final time. In the San Rafael Brother Derek's half and 3 quarter splits were 1.26 and 1.68 seconds respectively faster than even (or ideal) pace for a frontrunner. My research has shown that anything under a second difference is slow and greatly helps the front-runner. Anything much over 2 seconds (haven't worked out the exact number yet) and we have a hot pace with the advantage going to the closer (especially the plodders). Brother Derek's splits were well within the medium range.
To say the San Rafael pace was slow is to do a disservice to both horses. It implies that DB can only win by stealing the race with a slow pace and that SW is a plodder that is doomed by a slow pace. Neither is true since the pace was realistic and the race was decided by ability and trips.

Bob

[bobphilo]

Chuckles,

Here\'s the final eight splits for both Stevie Wonderboy And Brother Derek.
On the theory that what a horse does to get to the final eigth is just as important as how fast he runs it, I\'m including the fractional breakdowns for the whole race.

BD - 23.48(23.48) - 46.80(23.32) - 1:10.40(23.60) - 1:36.11(25.71)
Final eight - 13.00

SW - 23.88(23.88) - 47.44(23.56) - 1:10.88(23.44) - 1:36.35(25.47)
Final eight - 13.00

Bob

[NoCarolinaTony]

Bob....Your talking Pace here.

NC Tony

[bobphilo]

Guilty as charged. I talked sbout that 4-letter word. Break out the rack. LOL
Actually I was arguing against the assertation that the alleged \"slow\" pace was a factor in the race. You never know, however, you may someday hear me arguing that pace was a factor in a race.

Bob

[NoCarolinaTony]

Bob,

Im sitting here in Singapore, sweating from the swealtering heat and dieing to come back home. Here on business killing time before trip to Taiwan on Sunday that takes me out of ation through the end of next week. At least we have the internet.

Sorry I took the shot at that 4 letter word.

NC Tony

[xichibanx]

Sheez SC, I was going to call him this year\'s Personal Hope but you out did me...again.

[bobphilo]

No prob, Tony. I got the joke.

Since your in Singapore, did you hear about the jockey who got suspended for a whole year there for what essentially seems to be not riding to instructions and losing with a heavy favorite. They don\'t mention any suspected skullduggery. Wow. they sure are strict there.

http://www.sahorseracing.com/columnist.asp?col=6

Bob

[Silver Charm]

Where the Hell have you been?

Staring at the Walls of the New and \"Improved\" Gulfstream.

OK maybe he sticks around longer than both you and I think. This years Harlans Holiday.

[JohnTChance]

Tony,

I\'ve heard it\'s best to abstain from using any four letter words in Singapore because it\'s pretty strict over there. Throw all your gum wrappers in the proper waste paper baskets. And no air-balls... aim well... or you\'ll have to catch the Midnight Express to get back to the U.S.

JChance

[xichibanx]

SC,

Just haven\'t been posting much, to be honest.  I also took a little bit of time off.  No Gulfstream for me, I\'m a weekend regular in the Calder Turf Club.

xichibanx

[what about bob]

 I can\'t believe everyone is so down on Bo Derek.  Even though she may not be able to throw a 10 anymore, she\'s still hot for her age.

[NoCarolinaTony]

John-Bob,

What\'e even stranger is that when you go through security they confisgate all of your personal DVD\'s commercial or otherwise due to the fact that pornography is completely illegal, BUT...in every good hotel there are 4-6 professional women at every bar, without issue, so go figure. anywy I did find the Turf club and its is very upscale and lit brilliantly. We could learn a thing or two.

The Gents are very right about it being a tough place....Two weeks ago they \"Hung\"..yes Hung... a young Australian Man for smuggling in less than 20 grams of Marijuana. Now that\'s tough. But as a consequence, you do have no crime, and  you have clean streets with such tough law enforcement.

Hmmm....do you thnk the NTRA...nah

NC Tony