Stop Kidding Yourself

[NoCarolinaTony]

Richiebee,

Yes I am or was educated by the Jesuits up off of Fordham Road in the Bronx.

Second, how did you compile your data? ( i am not questioning it\'s accuracy but rather would like to gain access) Do you have it downloaded or did you do it manually? Could you also share the avg P3/P4 Exacta and Super payouts for same time frame for those tracks? NYRA has big P6 pools while Kee has huge Super pools due to the $0.10 super with lots of speculative money. I am playing in those pools.

Yes I do believe that \"chaos\" or short meets like Colonial or Kee and even SAR due tend to present more betting or value opportunities than due longer meets such as Monmouth for example. I tend to have a higher affinity for Stakes races and Turf racing. This year NYRA has had it fair share of very short feilds in stakes races with a fairly high percentage of winning favorites in those races. Value is in the eye of the bettor. Everyone has their own strenghts and weaknesses.


I grew up in NY and cut my teeth at NYRA and NJ tracks. Monmouth while I love the place, has truly become a non play for me. I don\'t get to play everyday but follow it nightly. TIVO all NYRA races and KEE Races. I go to SAR every year and have a great time win or lose. So I don\'t want this to come off dissing the NYRA sceene, it\'s just that it no longer is what it used to be. Since I\'ve moved away I have broadened my persective. NYRA still is the best quality circuit April through November.

All I am trying to do is to point out there are wagering alternatives for those who might be looking for something different and don\'t want to be caught in the same rut. I think it\'s good for your betting skills to do so, especially come Breeders Cup.

NC Tony

NCT,

\"And yes the turf couse played horribly opening weekend as my conversation with the jockeys alluded to last week. And yes they do seem to have a speed bias on the main track. \"

I don\'t play many races outside the NYRA tracks other than stakes, but I love the idea of having biases complicating the PPs and the betting. It gives me a piece of information to work with that\'s not fully reflected on the board. Even when people are looking for things like these, it is a skill onto itself to recognize when there\'s really a bias and when what appears to be a bias is just a series of random events.

Even though Keenland is not a track I know much about, I am compiling a list of every horse that raced on the inside on that turf course since the track opened (no easy task working with charts and the head on shot quality on my computer).  I\'ll be at Belmont sometime this week looking at videos of Keenland for hours.

I can\'t see how there aren\'t going to be some great values coming out of this period.

 

[NoCarolinaTony]

CH

Now thats a very good way to approach this. Take a Negative and perhaps turn it into a positive.

NC Tony

[richiebee]

NCT:

   The win mutuel information came from what Jethro Bodine used to call \"ciphering\". I used a calculator and the results from DRF. I think it is obvious that P3/P4/Super payoffs will be directly related to field size, and that is an area where NYRA usually will not stack up well against other circuits.

   It is interesting to me that the 10 cent super came to be after Crist wrote an article extolling the virtue of the bet in DRF. OK, Steve, how about now making a big push for $1 Pick Sixes? I won\'t hold my breath.

   I worked on the backstretch at Monmouth for 3 years, 84 - 86. During those 3 years I can honestly say I probably didn\'t miss a day of racing.

   My favorite track will be opening four days after the BC... if NYRA has any money left.

[Mall]

You are right to a certain extent,no doubt, but I never miss & rarely have much bad to say about Sar, & this yr was the 1st one in 3 or 4 that I ended up on the plus side at the end. Imo, the gambling at CD is usually even better than it is this fall at Kee because of all the overflow claiming races. If you get that kind of race right, & there are usually many different approaches, you get paid off. The flip side, of course, is that the chance of pitching a shutout, which I did for the best card of the meet Fri, is much greater. I\'ve seen & appreciated more than my fair share of the great ones over the yrs, but playing this game the way I think it should be played, & the only way I\'m interested in playing it in any event, requires big, competitive fields. That is what I think Kee has been offering this fall, along with what I also think, notwithstanding Mr Chance\'s opinion to the contrary, is as close to drug free racing as there has been anywhere in quite some time. In addition to the way Lori Wydick is riding,the real stories this meet so far have been how the horses of some of the suspected drug trainers can\'t seem to finish the way their horses usually do, & how poorly many of the \"expert\" handicappers are doing, now that recognizing a supertrainer\'s name in the program is no longer enough. Sort of reminds me of what happened to a lot of stock market \"experts\" at the end of a the last bull market.            

[Silver Charm]

Well put Mall and continued good luck there. The uneven racing surfaces have me pulling back and channeling my resources elsewhere.

Mall hope things are working out well for you and yours in the Bluegrass. If anyone has never been to Keeneland they should go it is a beautiful place. The area is full of good people. Speaking of which say hello to the group. This Board has never been the same since some of them moved on.