High Limit

[JAKE]

Before this years derby, there was another string about a big disparity over both TG and Rags #\'s on High Limit\'s 2yo numbers.

The SHEETS has his two wins as a 2yo at 10+ and 10 while TG (I believe) had them 1 and 2.

Looking at High Limit\'s overall line now, which set of numbers are more accurate?

[Millennium3]

Two things about your post:

1) Thank\'s to you for bringing this up. Months ago I posted here about the bogus figures of High Limit, only to be heckled and ridiculed for claiming TG screwed up his figures beyond belief.

2) There\'s no point asking about this, because all Brown will say is that his figures for High Limit, especially the LA Derby, are \"in line with the rest of the day\", and therefore, \"right\" (as if a whole day\'s assessment can never be screwed up either).

Given how High Limit hasn\'t won any kind of a race in 7 months now, it\'s further evidence that traditional barometers of evaluating a racehorse\'s ability, like results on the track, are essentially irrelevant to TG (so unable was High Limit to win on the dirt that Frankel did what all trainers before him do when they face that dilemma: throw them on the grass & see if they can win on that surface).

All that matters to TG are their figures they arbitrarily assign (which is crazily exemplified in their BG sheets archive where a horse that ran 10th in the Sprint got a better figure than many of those that crushed him on the track). One thing I learned is that TG rarely ever thinks it\'s figures are wrong or mistaken. In fact, Jerry Brown routinely claims how \"right\" his figures are and how \"wrong\" others (Ragozin, Beyer, etc.) are.

Here\'s a challenge to Thorograph for 2006. If Thorograph figures are so \"right\" and \"accurate\", test them publicly. Every week TG gives the \"Race of the Week\" sheets away for free. Let TG start with a mythical bankroll of whatever amount and make ONE SINGLE WIN BET ONLY on the Race of the Week (after all, if they\'re so \"right\" and \"accurate\" as opposed to others, there should be no need to hedge, right?). Since the information for their \"Race of the Week\" is given away for free anyway, it\'s an ideal vehicle for them to test the quality of their figures in relation to TG\'s usefulness to paying customers. Let\'s see where stands that mythical bankroll come January 2007.



 





 

[davidrex]

     Brown is comparable to a defense attorney...you want the most aggressive lawyer to represent you.Jerry isn\'t right all the time ...he just thinks he is.Got to love his spit and vinegar..so he\'s wrong sometimes yada yada yada.He still has the higher slugging average.

     Please note I am only talking about his #\'s, not the summnation(yeah I had the nose bob winner) Highest#...never went back...1st route improvement..jock rode a much improved race..all the others fit like a glove.

     Wonder how Len had that race.

p.s. doubt if I would have included #6 had I not read summary.

PARTYpokerON!

[NoCarolinaTony]

M3

Just asking some questions.

1) Could it be that due to the fact that High Limit ran so fast so early that he was ruined for the rest of the year?

2) What has Sun King done after the the Blue Grass (ie another questionable race as I recall you had it)?

3) Are the numbers and patterns to be used as absolutes or are they to be used to seek out patterns and or projections for future performance?

I\'m hear to learn.

NC Tony

[Michael D.]

I like HL\'s first two TG #\'s. He was a great bet off TG in his first 1M race as a three year old. He ran well in the Blue Grass, even though he collapsed at the end (make that race 1m, and it\'s extremely fast). I hate to make a series of excuses, but: the Derby was too far, not enough rest into the Preakness, a bad trip in a minor stake, and two turf races (a surface he is not suited for). I\'m not sure if the guy is still running, but if Frankel brings him back at 7f or 1M, I\'m willing to bet good money that he runs fast.
.............

as for TG\'s handicapping of this horse, well, not as good (stupid smiley face inserted).