WHY?

[congaree1]

Why didn\'t pampered Princess Bounce. I\'m a big believer in reading the odds board and she was 7-2 on the morning line. At know time during the betting was she getting any action. Over lays are great and at know time did i think she would be 8.5-1. The guessing continues.

CON

[TGJB]

Cong-- if you haven\'t used them yet, start taking a look at the Thoro-Pattern studies that can be found on each sheet. An explanation can be found in the \"Introduction\" section-- it\'s a little complicated, so make sure you understand it.

This game in the end comes down to percentages-- the good handicappers are not trying to pick the winner, they are trying to find horses whose chances of running well are better than their odds would indicate. I didn\'t have a strong opinion ON anyone, so I played the Spinster as a bet-against (against the Pletcher favorite), making a 4 horse tri and super box. Used the first two, not the next two.

Again, you chose one hell of a track to start learning at. A lot of standard sheet handicapping goes out the window at that place-- some horses like the track, some hate it (they are weaving all over the place in the stretch), as reflected in the winning margins being much bigger than average.

[kev]

See I thought she was good to go and run the -1.2 again, I bet the race before it came up and only added her in my ex.\'s. Love to see the number she got. I\'m thinking another -1.2

[kev]

For dirt races only: P= Pair, 0= off, T= top, X= Bad bad race
for horses coming off tops. For this time of the year Sep-Nov.
            %top   %pair   %off   %X
5yr  0-0-T  17     24       28    30
3yr  P-P-T  26     27       26    22
3yr  X-P-T  18     24       29    29
3yr  0-0-T  20     22       33    26
4yr  P-X-T  16     21       27    35
4yr  X-X-T  16     20       26    39
3yr  X-0-T  21     24       24    31
3yr  T-T-T  21     29       24    27
4yr  0-P-T  23     23       26    28
3yr  0-P-T  23     25       27    24
3yr  X-X-T  16     26       20    38
5yr  P-P-T  17     29       31    23

For some of the best top%

3yr  P-P-P  29    36        22    13
3yr  P-0-P  25    37        23    16
3yr  T-P-P  23    35        24    18

The worst % for horses X\'ing after a top is a X-X-T for all ages....a P-X-T is bad also. Has anyone else been looking at the Thoro-pattern\'s ??

[kev]

Horses coming into the BC with back to back neg. number\'s ( New Tops--Pair ups ) and running within 2 month\'s of the BC race, from the last number.Dirt only.

GHOSTZAPPER: Had the two -6.2 ended up running a -4.2 and still won.

APPTITUDE: Two -2.0 coming in and bounced to a 1.3 running 8th at odds of 2-1.

DELAWARE TOWNSHIP: Two -2.1 coming in BC race, ran a 0.3 running 6th odds 10-1.

CALLER ONE: First neg. was -1.3 next was a -1.2 ran a 3.0 in the BC running 4th odds 4-1.

SIGHTSEEK: Two -3.0 coming in and ran a 3.3 running 4th odds 3-5.

These are some pattern\'s I like for horses to bounce off of. Seems like not many can run that 3rd big effort. Now KELA last year was coming in with back2back -3.3, but hadn\'t race in about 10 weeks and he tripled up those -3.3, that\'s damn good.

[kev]

Someone ask the other day about pattern\'s......This is all BC horses for the past 6 years. Some might say, yes it\'s easy now to say this after the fact, but it\'s basic sheet reading 101 for most of these. Their the fav\'s in all BC races. Let me start with the horses that looked to run off their tops and basic sheet 101 reading. Some might say different, please let\'s here what you guys/gals thought on these. You all can check these out on this web site in the BC races. Reason why I\'m doing this is to get ready for this year BC.

RIBOLETTA 3-5......Two races back she ran a -3.2 a monster race for a female and back then for even a male horse, she then ran a -2.2....that was her 10th race of the year and looked to be tailing off. She ran 7th in the BC running a 2.2.
SILVERBULLETDAY 7-5....Three races back she came back to the 0 she ran early in the year, most horses would pair up or come right back to that...but she ran a 1.1 and then a 3.1 coming into the BC race......sign of a horse going bad?? She ran a 9.0 on BC day and ran 6th.
HAWKSLEY HILL 7-2.....This one was easy to see, just like the guy says for TG on TV....\"He bounces off every good race, and he just ran the best race of his life.\" Maybe it wasn\'t HH life time best but it was his top and he had bounced off the 1.2 four times that he had ran it. Coming into the BC he just ran the 1.2 once again and he ran a 5.0 on BC day running 5th.
FLUTE....6-5 ( guessing on the odds it says 1.2 ) I threw her in for two reason she wasn\'t that fast vs. some of the others and she had just ran that 4 for the 4th time.....she should have been moving off that number by now. She ran a 9.0 and ran 7th.
STORMING HOME 2-1........This is a pattern I like to play against.....SH ran a 0  0  1 and then right before the BC ran a 0.2......I love when horses do this run about 1/2pt up to 2pts off their tops and then back up off that. SH ran a 3.2 and ran 7th.
PEACE RULES 3-1...........Just because his grass number\'s were so bad and he took alot of money that day.......Ran a 12.1 and ran 13th.


Jerry/Alan and the rest...any bad fav\'s you guys can recall not betting or throwing out on BC day. Thanks.

[P-Dub]

I remember Officer was a terrible bet as a 2yo. Tempera also paid nice that day, You was the favorite.

[richiebee]

Kev:

   I appreciate your efforts to understand and utilize the Thoro Patterns, and have scrutinized them over the months, much as you have, looking for the connection between a strong looking pattern and a high win percentage. And by a winning effort, I mean a first place finish, not a new top.

   Unfortunately, as TGAB pointed out to me in his post of 6/8/05, there are 24,576 possible patterns. I do not have the resources (money/hardware/software/ time) to follow the success rates of all of these patterns.

   One pattern I follow with interest is the Pair/Pair/Pair pattern irregardless/ regardless of age or time of year (this is not a pattern I think you would expect to see frequently with older horses).

   If you do a search and go back to my post of 6/9/05, you will see my discussion of the strengths of the Pair/ Pair/Pair pattern. Without being able to research it scientifically, I found that P/P/P usually produces a 20+% chance of a new top, and less than a 40% chance (combined) of an \"off\" or the dreaded \"X\". Of course, speaking generally, the P/P/P pattern usually is very predictive of the animal producing ... what a surprise... another pair.

   At one point or another, TG should be able to identify certain patterns which are strongly predictive of victory. I do not know if it will become part of the TG product (think run based and fig based trainer stats). The conspiracy theorist within me believes that the tie between certain patterns and winning efforts has been developed, but will probably not be disseminated to occasional TG users such as myself.