Penn Derby Odds

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

1. Sun King            5-2
2. Quadrant            8-1
3. United              24-1
4. Anthony J           5-1
5. Smokescreen         15-1
7. Tani Maru           25-1
8. Southern Africa     7-1
9. Golden Rainbow      7-1
11.Real Dandy          7-1
12.Its Time to Smile   47-1

Interesting odds

The two that make the most sense all things considered appear Quadrant and Smokescreen.

They both look to be fast enough already, stand to improve and will work a trip (pace and wide) and that appears to be  important in this race.

I also like Golden Rainbow despite the bounce threat.

Southern Africa is too much horse to leave out at those odds.

Quadrant on top for the exotics. Token with Smokescreen.
Gonna have Its Time to Smile in third.

[beyerguy]

I said this before the race, so I have no problem saying it now.  I just don\'t see any reason to have bet against Sun King.  This horse was the ultimate legit favorite in my opinion.  Now, whether to bet him at 7-5 is a personal preference for the bettor to decide, but no way I was going against him in this spot.

[HP]

Reasons to bet against Sun King:

Sun King 122 - assume he runs his race (another zero).  Other horses in the race were capable of running in the 1-2 range and carried 114 (about two points).  So Sun King wasn\'t really faster than the others.  Plus he had the 14 post.  I would say he wasn\'t a screaming \"bet against\", but at 7/5 I would take the same swing again.  

HP

I thought Sun King was clearly the best horse. However, I also thought he had two relatively easy trips in his last 2 races. There certainly had to be \"some\" probability that he would get a very difficult trip from the 14 post given his style. What that probability was I don\'t know, but I\'ve seen many horses like this (especially when they are slightly suspect in the stamina department) wind up up the track. I also didn\'t like the horses coming out of the West Virgina Derby because I thought that race had a contentious pace where all the front runners collapsed and made the closers look better than they were or Quadrant who I thought may have been helped a bit by a speed favoring surface. IMO, there were also a couple of horses in the race that looked set to improve. I boxed the 2nd and 3rd place finishers in there.  Sun King won so easily, maybe I underestimated him, but I think he may have actually improved. He also wound up getting a decent trip sitting off that pace without losing too much ground. Who knows?  I ripped up my tickets, but I don\'t feel too badly about that bet given that I was a tough trip or a subbar perforamnce away from a monster ticket.

[jbelfior]

CH--


I really liked SMOKESCREEN. I don\'t mind layoff horse if they are off the pace types since they don\'t do much running early. And his pattern indicated a healthy horse who, with slight improvement,could really make an impact in here. At 18-1, what a value play.

SUN KING was a logical use just on \"class.\" Field was pretty weak and filled with GR 3 animals. All this knowledge and information and sheet patern reads and pace projections got me nothing but aggravation as Luzzi, who cowers when he gets bumped around, just missed second to the most overrated 3yo around (Southern Africa).

The photo cost me in the neighborhood of $5500...but hey, it\'s only money.



Good Luck,
Joe B.  

Joe,

I\'m really sorry you didn\'t hit that ticket because the photo for 2nd was meaningless to me. I liked Southern Africa and Smokescreen yesterday. I hated SA in the Belmont because I thought he was too cheap and wouldn\'t want 12F. I also threw out his turf race. However, I thought once you got past Sun King he fit very well and had a few very difficult trips in those 3rd string stakes earlier in the year when he was doing well (I saw all of them) He was also working better coming into yesterday\'s race than he was working back then. So I thought there was a very good chance for a new top.  Between us we should have hit the exacta and triple. Instead we both tore up tickets.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

beyerguy Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I said this before the race, so I have no problem
> saying it now.  I just don\'t see any reason to
> have bet against Sun King.  This horse was the
> ultimate legit favorite in my opinion.  Now,
> whether to bet him at 7-5 is a personal preference
> for the bettor to decide, but no way I was going
> against him in this spot.

What can we say? You were right. This game is about beating favorites and/or horses that tie up big money. Thats where you have to take aim.

I\'ve taken that swing before. I\'m gonna take it again. Tossed Sun King from all paying spots. Unfortunately, when you bet you sometimes err. The only reason not to take the shot is if you think the horse lays over the field. I do think that was probably Sun King\'s best race and maybe hes better than I thought, but that was a tough field to make superiority judgements upon, his competition didn\'t fire. All the +2 horses were compromised.

I\'m less disappointed in Sun King overcoming than Quadrant not showing more because the lion\'s share of my bets involved him.  Still, if Sun King bounced, which was a possibility, the perfecta would have been juicy.

Hindsight is always golden. I\'d definitely bet the Sun King/Southern Africa/Smokescreen/Network knowing what I know today. I\'d even bet Sun King to win at, what was he 8-5?

[beyerguy]

Like I said, I didn\'t think this one was vulnerable, so I didn\'t play.  I don\'t bet favorites if I think they are clearly best, I pass or look to use in exotics.  The rest of the field looked like a crapshoot, so I sat it out.  They run a few hundred races every day

I understand the thinking. Personally, I don\'t have a problem with crapshoots. If the horses are really that close in probability of winning, then all the ones going off at much longer odds are good value even if I can\'t seperate them. In this case I thought I had a pretty good guage on the ability of the horses below Sun King based on back trips, WO\'s and other things. I guess the key was what probability to assign to Sun King from the 14 post in this field because he looked clearly best if he fired his best race and got a good trip. Obviously since I didn\'t use him I assigned a probability of a very tough trip or a sub par performance at greater than his odds suggested. Maybe I was wrong about that because I believe he ran a new peak. That\'s something I considered a very low probability event because he got pretty easy trips in both of his comeback races.