PA Derby ROTW

[big18741]

Nice writeup and a terrific betting race.

Sun King is the best horse,but this is a bad scene for him.I have to bet the race with him running no better than third,and hopefully off the board.That post is a killer,and he won\'t ever see the lead which he seems to want since being blinkered.The beauty of it is he\'s part of a Zito entry which will make him even shorter priced.

Phila Park usually has a scraped speed biased surface on Pa Derby Day,but they just resurfaced the main track.The horsemen are raving about its fairness and cushion.Have to see how the track is playing over the next couple of days,and on Monday early in the card.

If speed is holding United can get involved.Weaver has gone blinkers on and turf to dirt both times he ran this horse at Phila Park and each time resulted in big new tops.Both of those were in 7f Pa bred stake sprints which he wired.Tony Black on and he will get the lead against this field.The distance is a question,but his price should be fat.

I like Quadrant a little bit-he can just clunk up on the rail and get a piece,but I really like Golden Rainbow.The post isn\'t great,but the price should be,and Rose usually figures out a way to save some ground,at least on the first turn.Perfect running style for this race if the track isn\'t a cement highway.

I don\'t like Smokescreen-he\'s a bit of a hanger from what I\'ve seen ,and I don\'t think the extra 1/16th does him any good -plus Luzzi\'s a real anchor.Have to let him beat me.

Great betting race.

[spa]

The tip is United\'s middle move. I see this race as a coup. If we can keep Real Dandy and Sun King out, it could be a big payout......  

[beyerguy]

I don\'t really see Sun King having any real problems establishing good early position against this group.  Who do you think makes the lead?  He won\'t be worth a bet, but I\'m not lining up to bet against him either.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

big18741 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Nice writeup and a terrific betting race.

Ant, I respect your opinion. I think you\'re the guy that was very high on Scrappy T. This is an interesting ROTW.

Sun King has reverted to his juvenile form with the blinkers. Zito tried to make him a Classic distance horse and then deftly changed tactics again. The problem here is that other than United there are no committed front end horses. Barring a bobble on the break, theres little reason why Sun King can\'t be urged up to the front. In that event, worst case scenario is about three wide. Though bounce/regress may be more of a factor with a push to clear.

United appears to have a subtlely progressive pattern to me. (The improvement is hidden in Turf starts skewing the graph.) That last dirt sprint was his best dirt effort yet and he\'s been a better turf horse since then, leading me to believe he will be a better dirt horse. This horse appears situated near the angle I discussed the other day. Additionally, its hard to deny hes coming off the Turf running. The caveat is, each time he\'s met better horses he\'s been soundly handled, but his pattern was more erratic back then and he wasn\'t meeting them at Philadelphia.  He\'s only 10% to top on Thoroquick, but Weaver has employed White Mercedes in the past and though a mortal elsewhere he has small sample supertrainer status at the meet. I\'d demand 11-1 on the thoroquick admonition, but I think he\'ll be that and 750K pots bring out the man. Projecting, this horse could very easily run a 3 on the pattern. With ground and weight savings 2\'s might not catch him. Unlike some in this race, this horse does have some seasoning, but assuming you are on to a pattern, the main concern has to be. \"Does this horse really want 9 marks with some tougher horses around? I\'m certainly not sure.

Agreed Quadrant is live. He\'s been running against elders and that horse that beat him last is no slouch.

Regarding Smokescreen, he was right there with three in a blanket finish 6 lengths behind Park Avenue Ball. Sun King beat Park Avenue by 2 in the next heat. Granting Smokey wasn\'t ever gonna get to Park Avenue, it looks like he may have gotten surprised in his blinkers. They are off. He\'s been a troubled horse and looks dead game to me. I like him.

Assume Sun King loses two lengths on wide, which may or may not happen. He\'s also got a length to give back on weight off the Haskell and is sitting on two big efforts. He\'ll have to go forward to ensure a win. Will he?


 
>
> Sun King is the best horse,but this is a bad scene
> for him.I have to bet the race with him running no
> better than third,and hopefully off the board.That
> post is a killer,and he won\'t ever see the lead
> which he seems to want since being blinkered.The
> beauty of it is he\'s part of a Zito entry which
> will make him even shorter priced.
>
> Phila Park usually has a scraped speed biased
> surface on Pa Derby Day,but they just resurfaced
> the main track.The horsemen are raving about its
> fairness and cushion.Have to see how the track is
> playing over the next couple of days,and on Monday
> early in the card.
>
> If speed is holding United can get involved.Weaver
> has gone blinkers on and turf to dirt both times
> he ran this horse at Phila Park and each time
> resulted in big new tops.Both of those were in 7f
> Pa bred stake sprints which he wired.Tony Black on
> and he will get the lead against this field.The
> distance is a question,but his price should be
> fat.
>
> I like Quadrant a little bit-he can just clunk up
> on the rail and get a piece,but I really like
> Golden Rainbow.The post isn\'t great,but the price
> should be,and Rose usually figures out a way to
> save some ground,at least on the first
> turn.Perfect running style for this race if the
> track isn\'t a cement highway.
>
> I don\'t like Smokescreen-he\'s a bit of a hanger
> from what I\'ve seen ,and I don\'t think the extra
> 1/16th does him any good -plus Luzzi\'s a real
> anchor.Have to let him beat me.
>
> Great betting race.
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Edited 1 times. Last edit at 09/03/05 08:17AM by
> big18741.

[kev]

Yes SUN KING will have some kind of early lick, but I think what someone was saying is that he looks to go wide into the first turn. You have QUADRANT--UNITED--TANI MARU with some early foot and they all might be lined up going into the turn making SK go wide.

[beyerguy]

I understand what he was saying, but 9f at Pha gives a pretty decent run into the first turn.  Of course the 10 isn\'t ideal, but without a lot of speed in the race, he should be OK.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I think the hole is the 14. Sun King is a decent horse that has caught a generally lesser bunch here. Those that are legitimate threats upon speed are very green on seasoning. I missed the Haskell, so I have to go by the charts, but I don\'t think Sun King did more than ease to the front, save all the ground and try to slow it down, which is not a bad winning formula. The clunk ups never got in position to clunk up.

Personally, my view is that the quest for greatness for Sun King is long over and that the blinkers went on in order to try and acquire Grade I black type. At least in the Haskell that failed. Now, its a money proposition, but you have to ask yourself, \"Was the Penn. Derby the target?\"

Considering Pennsylvania was probably an afterthought and that the post is not ideal and that Sun King is not the cream of the bunch, hes certainly worth a little stab at what Even Money/8-5? Caveat on Thoroquick Zito looks more likely poised to top or pair.

[kev]

You say he should be ok...meaning a ground save run into the first turn or 2w, I\'ll say 3W atless.

[davidrex]

     Look at Smokescreens\" trainer profile and tg fig for blinkers off.
     Lets ussume its equibase,and it usually is...but why employ such data for this product?
     Please someone explain (not ponificate) how such a disparity could exsist.

PARTYpokerON!

[big18741]

Chuckle

You might have me confused with Big Ant,but I am the guy who was real high on Scrappy T.

BTW-Scrappy T is fully recovered from the Preakness smashup and is preparing for the Super Derby on Oct 1.He had a couple of works at Saratoga and is doing fine.Seems he never healed until he was worked on at the Spa by deep tissue massage specialist-Steve Allday.I never knew Bailes went that way,but when you get your hands on an animal with this kind of potential for the first time in your career-you do what you have to.

As for Sun King-two nice efforts in a row after being blinkered off the bench,but I think he goes back into the toilet like he did last spring.He\'s just a one paced horse with no move.He won\'t get the lead off of United and Tani MAru,and then he\'s going to have to pass them at least 3 wide while giving weight,and hold off what\'s coming from behind him.I think he\'s in trouble here.If he beats me-no sweat.Gotta take a stand here.I\'d bet against him from any post position-Phila Park is a weird track-some horses won\'t pick their feet up-and Zito other than a handful of races,has been in the toilet all spring and summer.Short priced toss out.If I have the winner and Sun King runs second-I\'ll have the exacta a couple of times,but only because I made an exacta wheel.I think he\'s an awful bet here,and will never see the lead at any point in the race.

[TGJB]

David-- I\'ll have Alan take a look at this when he gets back from Saratoga.