Computer generated odds line for Belmont

[derby1592]

The following odds line was generated by a computer model using TG figs as the primary input.

The computer model gives War Emblem about a 25 percent chance to stamp his name in the history books. Given that his odds are likely to be 4/5 or less, that probably makes this race playable unless you would prefer to pass on the race and just cheer on the potential TC winner. The obvious value \"key horse\" is Perfect Drift (the model projects him as the most likely spoiler of War Emblem's TC bid with \"break even\" odds of 3.7 to 1) and the long shot value play looks to be Wiseman's Ferry (the model projects him as the fifth most likely winner at \"break even\" odds of 9.1 to 1). Proud Citizen (5.3 to 1), Sunday Break (8.9 to 1) and Medaglia d'Oro (12.1 to 1) are the only other contenders with much of a shot according to the model although based on the morning line they are unlikely to offer a lot of value.

Below is the complete odds line in post-position order.

Good luck to all.

Chris

P.S. I like Essence of Dubai more than the model does. The model says he is too slow and that there are too many faster horses in the race for him to have much of a chance. The model is probably right...

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Artax Too, >100/1
Like A Hero, 51.5
Wiseman\'s Ferry, 9.1
Essence of Dubai, 26.4
Sunday Break, 8.9
Perfect Drift, 3.7
Medaglia d\'Oro, 12.1
Proud Citizen, 5.3
War Emblem, 3.1
Magic Weisner, 25.5
Sarava, >100/1