Insights regarding past Belmont sheets

[derby1592]

First of all, I want to thank TGJB for posting the sheets for the top 3 finishers in recent Belmonts. I always find this historical look back at past TC and BC winners interesting and enlightening.

I have seen similar information on past Derby horses but this was the first time I have seen any past Belmont sheets. Immediately a huge difference jumped right off the pages and really got me interested in handicapping this year\'s Belmont:

In the recent past, horses fast enough to have a chance to win going into the Derby have rarely made a big jump up in the Derby itself. Typically, about the best the primary Derby contenders did was pair-up. There were exceptions (Proud Citizen, Victory Gallop and Silver Charm) but big jumps were pretty unusual. However, In the Belmont, big jumps appear to be much more common. Even better, the big jumps come off fairly obvious strong/explosive patterns. 4 of the past 6 Belmont winners have jumped up in the Belmont (3 of those 4 by three points or more) and 7 of the last 18 top-3-finishers did the same. All of those jump-up winners (except Point Given) also went off at high odds.

Here are the 4 recent winners that jumped 1.5 points or more: Point Given (3 pt jump), Commendable (4.5 pts), Lemon Drop Kid (1.5 pts), and Editors Note (3 pts).

Here are the other 3 recent top-3-finishers that jumped: AP Valentine (2 pts), Vision and Verse (3.5 pts) and Free House (1.5 pts).

I looked for some trends among those that jumped up and there were a few but the only real constant was a \"classic\" strong pattern (i.e., pair-ups and/or small forward moves in recent races). The one possible exception might be Commendable but you could even argue his pattern was very strong if you excused his poor Derby effort, which came on short rest. Despite what Beyer or Crist might say, the Belmont looks like a sheet players dream (with the possible exception of the year of the \"Swale and Pine Circle exacta\" :-)

Here is a quick look at some other factors. I will let you draw your own conclusions:

Trainers: 3 of the 7 jumpers were trained by either Baffert or Lukas. Not surprising.

Running Style: Only a few of the jumpers were closers and at least 3 of the 7 could be considered pressers or front-runners.

Breeding: Looking at the TGIs, we see that only 3 of the 7 jumpers had true \"distance breeding.\"
 
2yo form: 6 of the 7 jumpers were relatively fast as 2yos (11 or faster). Only one (Vision and Verse) was slow and that was with only one start as a 2yo.

Top going into Belmont: 6 of the 7 jumpers were not exceptionally fast heading into the Belmont (4 or worse top). Only Point Given jumped from a top of better than 4.

3yo development: 5 of 7 jumpers had developed 4 pts or less compared to their 2yo top but, as I mentioned before, one of those (Vision and Verse) had only one start as a 2yo.

Path to the Belmont: 4 of the 7 had run in all 3 TC races, one went the Derby/Peter Pan route, one went straight to the Belmont from the Derby and one did not run in any prior TC race.

The bottom line: Obviously, this is not a lot of past data to base any strong conclusions on but, unlike the Derby, if you can find the \"ideal developing sheet horse\" - a horse at a price with a strong pattern that could win the race with a 2 or 3 pt forward move, then you just might have a good key for the Belmont. Consistent with other standard sheet-reading principles, if the horse has yet to develop much as a 3yo, then he may be an even stronger play.

I have not seen all the sheets/figures for the Belmont entrants but, of those that I have seen so far, Essence of Dubai is clearly the horse with the prototypical sheet and looks like a possible key. I look forward to seeing all the Belmont contenders sheets very soon. It looks like this could be a very playable race.

Good luck to all.

\"All truths are easy to understand once they are discovered; the point is to discover them.\" Galileo

Chris

[Phil Mandl]

Good read on the previous 5 years of TG data for Belmont top 3 finishers and here\'s some more truths.  Godolphin horses are running poorly so far this year in this country. They have one odds-on maiden winner, Dubai Tiger, out of 6 runners so far.  None of the other 5 have even finished in the money! Including odds on Infinite Spirit. Don\'t worry though Ibn will go next in a maiden race and possibly get their 2nd win at odds-on.  
I don\'t know exactly whats going on but I personally expected better performances from all of the other Godolphin runners including Essence.  E Dubai was originally pointing to the Met mile and wasen\'t ready, Don\'t know whats taking Express Tour so long to come to hand this year. Imperial Gesture was going to run in the Acorn and now isn\'t.  Don\'t believe Eoin Harty has had a starter yet this year, and I can go on with more examples. Lots of high priced and well bred homebreds not running to their potential...yet.

Until I see signs of life from some Godolphin runners I\'m steering clear, at underlay odds just like I would with any cold barn.

As for Essence of Dubai specifically. He\'s one of my Godolphin 7 stars horses and I\'d love to rack up another 50 points with a win in the Belmont, but I just don\'t believe its gonna happen.  Despite his TG pattern possibly (and I\'m not convinced this is the case)fitting the profile of a Belmont winner or contender. One profile that does not fit is the layoff.  With the exception of 2000 all/most of the top 3 finishers in recent years had a race after the first week in May. I still remember how Conquistador Cielo came up to and won the Belmont.
My opinion is he\'s (EOD) just too slow for this group, mainly based on his TG numbers.  He\'s gonna have to move forward significantly to be competitive. I don\'t like any of the horses in this years Belmont not having run recently, which includes EOD and Perfect Drift. Plus his running style is another concern I have. What happened to the pace speed he demonstrated last year?  He\'s also very high strung and with a horse like this you always have to consider that he could leave his best race back in the Paddock or during the Post Parade-too bad he\'s so well bred cause gelding is what this guy needs to improve. Pre-race inspection is a required part of deciding what to do with this horse in each race he runs.  Want more...He\'s been working slow-with his last work the slowest of 17. And to top it off he will be overbet.  At 20-1 I\'m kinda interested, anything less and I\'ll look elsewhere.  For what its worth I\'ve become a little interested in MD despite Frankel runners typically not improving after the first 2 or 3 races of a campaign.

[Michael D.]

Essence of Dubai looks a lot like Editors Note from the breeding standpoint. Decent Prospector distance breeding on top (decent, not great), and Belmont Stakes winning blood on the dam side. I think you could make a strong case for this horse at 15 or 20-1. I just can not overlook his performances when facing good competition though (losses by 10, 20, and 13 lengths). Reluctant toss out for me.

[nunzio]

Michael,

I absolutely don\'t like this horse one bit.
How can you take him over any of the top three horses in the Preakness?  Look at his
race in the juvenile, he was 30-1
and ran for a 1/2 mile. Even if
he is 50-1 I don\'t like him.

On a different note, Wisemans Ferry
is going to make sure War Emblem earns
his triple cown, if he gets it.  I can\'t
see the pace of this race being what it was when Commendable won, it could be 12 & change which will make for an interesting stretch run.

Nunzio