Training up to the Belmont

[derby1592]

Several people have mentioned concerns about horses training straight up to the Belmont after running in the Derby so I decided to try and dig up some facts and data to see how such horses have performed in the past. Most of this data comes from our \"resident racing historian\" known as \"PP\" on this board. You can thank her for this interesting information.

In the last 30 years or so, a total of 22 horses have entered the Belmont by training up to the race after running in the Derby. Those 22 horses have a combined Belmont record of 1 win, 4 seconds, and 2 thirds - nothing special but also not that bad either. Certainly, a lot better record than horses with similar layoffs going into the Derby.

The obvious question is how many of these horses actually had any chance of winning the race since, if many of these entrants had no shot of winning, it could skew the results. Unfortunately, I don\'t have a direct, objective way to determine this but I can compare how the horses did in the Belmont to how they did in the Derby. This might give a sense of what to expect from the two horses (Perfect Drift and Essence of Dubai) that are training up to the Belmont this year.

Based on order of finish, of those 22, 10 performed better in the Belmont than in the Derby, 10 performed worse, and 2 performed the same. Thus, it appears that such horses are equally likely to do better or worse in the Belmont than in the Derby.

Eleven of the 22 had finished in the top 5 in the Derby and among them they had a combined Belmont record of 0 wins, 2 seconds and 2 thirds. Again, not that good but not that bad either.

Six of the 22 had finished 6th through 10th in the Derby and among them they had a surprisingly respectable Belmont record of 0 wins, 2 seconds, 0 thirds, and 2 fourths. In fact, all but one of the six improved on its Derby finish in the Belmont.

Five of the 22 had finished 11th or worse in the Derby and all of those finished poorly in the Belmont with the lone exception of Commendable who was actually the only winner that ever trained straight up to the Belmont after running in the Derby (at least in the last 30 years).

So what does all this mean? I am not sure other than I would probably not downgrade either Perfect Drift or Essence of Dubai in the Belmont because of the layoff and there appears to be a good chance that EOD could improve over his Derby form.

For those interested, I have listed the raw data below. Note how few Derby winners go on to win the Belmont. Only Thunder Gulch and Swale have turned the trick since Affirmed won the Triple Crown and they both ran \"sub par\" races in the Preakness prior to winning the Belmont. At the risk of stating the obvious, War Emblem has his work cut out for him on Saturday. If he does win after having run 4 straight fast races leading up to the Belmont, the horse definitely deserves some respect.

Good luck to all.

Chris

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Here is the raw data.

Year  Derby Winner/Belmont Winner
Followed by: Name of horse(s) that trained up to Belmont / Derby fin / Belmont fin

2001 Monarchos / Point Given
   Invisible Ink/2nd/5th
   Balto Star/14th/8th
   Thunder Blitz/4th/6th

2000 Fusaichi Pegasus / Commendable
   Commendable 17th/1st
   Aptitude 2nd/2nd

1999 Charismatic / Lemon Drop Kid
   None

1998 Real Quiet / Victory Gallop
   None

1997 Silver Charm / Touch Gold
    Crypto Star/5th/4th

1996 Grindstone / Editor's Note
    None

1995 Thunder Gulch / Thunder Gulch
    Knockadoon/7th/4th
    Wild Syn/19th(last)/11th(last)

1994 Go for Gin / Tabasco Cat
    Strodes Creek/2nd/3rd

1993 Sea Hero / Colonial Affair
   Kissin Kris/7th/2nd
   Silver of Silver/8th/4th

1992 Lil E. Tee / A.P. Indy
    Al Sabin/6th/10th (last of finishers)

1991 Strike the Gold / Hansel
    Another Review/13th/Eased
    Green Alligator/4th/10th (last of finishers)

1990 Unbridled / Go and Go
    Thirty Six Red/9th/2nd

1989 Sunday Silence / Easy Goer
   None

1988 Winning Colors / Risen Star
    Granacus/11th/5th

1987 Alysheba / Bet Twice
   None

1986 Ferdinand / Danzig Connection
   Rampage/4th/7th

1985 Spend a Buck / Creme Fraiche
   None

1984 Swale / Swale
   Coax Me Chad/2nd/5th
   Silent King/9th/7th

1983 Sunny's Halo / Caveat
   None

1982 Gato del Sol / Conquistador Cielo
   Gato del Sol/1st/2nd

1981 Pleasant Colony / Summing
   None

1980 Genuine Risk / Temperence Hill
   Rockhill Native/5th/3rd
   Super Moment/4th/6th

In the 70\'s no horses (zip) trained up to the Belmont after running in the Derby and I would guess that few (if any) did so prior to 1970.