Yikes!

[richiebee]

Jimbo:

    Correct. I believe the strongest stance that JB and Julian had on Sunday morning was a vote against Vicarage in the Amsterdam. Julian went a step further,if you recall: One of his strongest plays on the day was Social Probation, a 24/1 Canadian bomb who almost got by Santana Strings at the wire. Could have been an uncomfortable trip home for the TG gang...?

    Julian\'s other strong play was Maria\'s Dance in Sunday\'s 8th, 19.5/1 for an ice cold Hennig/ Fragoso combo. MD finished 7th by about 5 lengths, with the following comment: \"raced close up inside, was steadied repeatedly along the inside, was shut off along the inside in the stretch and altered course\". Julian has a refreshing disdain for short priced runners.

    Don\'t understand the continued dialogue over the Louisiana Derby. Does it have to do with High Limit\'s regression? I was surprised to see him in the Nat Museum of Racing Stakes, tossed him immediately (as I have since the Bluegrass) and wondered why they don\'t cut him back to a one turn race, to try to start to rebuild his confidence. There are plenty of one turn stakes for 3YOs that Los  in the Fog won\'t be running in.

    Carolina BBQ is top notch, kind of reminded me when Boog Powell had one of his BBQ pits set up at Monmouth Park a few years ago

    Jimbo, meant to ask you, how did you feel when you saw that J. Jerkens rode Santos back on Reel Legend?

[jimbo66]

Richiebee,

I didn\'t realize you were at the seminar on Sunday.

I was absolutely shocked that Jerkens used Santos back.  I guess most of the world saw the ride he gave him last time, and over-reacted, making him 2-1.  With Santos from the outside, I had to toss him.  Unfortunately, I didn\'t come up with the winner.  

Jerry was saying that one of the NY trainers (I believe Hushion), commented that he felt that Jimmy Jerkens was the top trainer in NY right now.  I guess that could be so, because his horses usually run their races, but jeez, you would think if he was the BEST in NY, he would use Santos less.  I will take Chantal Sutherland over Santos, espeically on speed horses on the grass.  The Santos chokehold on horses is lethal.  He should consider a career in that ultimate fighting stuff, when his mounts start to dry up........

[STB]

Speaking of jockeys, did anybody else think Robbie Albarado put up an especially putrid effort on Silver Strings on Sunday? Or am I just trying to excuse bad handicapping?

I loved Silver Strings in there, and the Hennig horse as well. Praise Jesus I was too hungover to follow through on my intention to get up for the seminar on Sunday, if I heard the TG rep talking up the Hennig horse I may have taken even more of a beating on the race, and the beating (for my world) was pretty severe as it was.

Anyway, there was no speed in there, Albarado\'s got the rail on a horse who has run decent tactical speed, granted she was op a bit in her last two, but that\'s why I thought they ditched Jara for a \"big time\" rider. So they walk out of there in like 49, over a rock-hard turf, no less, and this guy has the horse way back there in seventh. Maybe he wouldn\'t have won anyway, but give the horse a chance. This guy seems to have signed some sort of non-agression pact with himself, he seems to have all kinds of trouble riding horses with tactical speed on the turf, either not using it, moving too early, whatever.

And, despite knowing this, like an idiot I bet the horse anyway.

To top it off the very next race I screw the pooch by keying the Dutrow horse over and under Santana Springs and the Nafzger piece in exactas, key Dutrow over them in triples, with a win bet on Nafzger, yet, somehow it never occurs to me to box the two of them in the exacta. The teller even tried to help by punching in two less dollars than I wanted on the SS/Nafzger horse over Dutrow, too; it was like the gods of racing were begging me to remember to spend the last four bucks boxing SS and the Nafzger horse. Unfortunately, the signal didn\'t get through, and I threw the extra four dollars on those two over Dutrow.

One last brief comment before I go crawl back under my rock ..my wife\'s home in the UK for two weeks, with the kids...she calls Monday morning, waking me out of a hungover sleep, and, after few minutes of pleasant conversation, the inevitable...

\"...so, how\'d you do at the track this weekend, dear?\"...

Richiebee,

\"Don\'t understand the continued dialogue over the Louisiana Derby. Does it have to do with High Limit\'s regression?\"

If I owned High Limit and wanted to continue running him against high quality horses, at this point, I would try sprinting him.

He was successful routing twice. However, both times he had easy leads in a slow pace (and that FG track was highly suspect). Every other time he has looked dreadful in the stretch regardless of the what the speed figure said. He may just be a 6F-8F horse that can run further when he gets it all his own way. I suggested that was a possibility before the LA Derby and considered it a risk that was being weighed properly. However, he got it all his own way on that  surface that day. So we didn\'t get to find anything out.

If he fails sprinting, then it will be obvious he\'s not moving forward and will need a drop in class.

[Michael D.]

STB,
Albarado\'s ROI is a paltry $1.28. In his last 152 Sar races, it\'s even lower ($0.94). He consistently runs wide (2.3 ave path), and when he does save ground, he often seems to find trouble. Albarado will win his share of races, as he continues to pick up decent mounts from Ky based trainers, but I don\'t think he offers much value at the windows. Most of the top jocks are out of town this w/e, might give Robby a chance to improve on his current 2 for 35 record.

[NoCarolinaTony]

M3,

Again I keep reading that you don\'t believe in the figure\'s,figuremaking,etc. I don\'t know who you are, but based on your post you must have worked for equibase or DRF in some fashion (i\'m excluding the competitors product for now). This whole business as far as I can tell is not an exact science (not due to a lack of trying on the part of the TG team). They have never said it was. I don\'t buy the product with the expectation of 100% perfection. We all know the DRF has mistakes, Equibase has mistakes, Beyer makes mistakes and so does RAG.

It is my position that it is the most accurate product on the market. Many times I\'vr gone back over the card with my sheets and only curse myself as to why I didn\'t see the pattern. The are not afraid to take a stand. They are willing to revisit races and figures unlike others in the business. The are ever willing to talk to you when you have a legit question or issue with the data.

So who the hell are you anyway? You not telling anyone of us something we all don\'t already know. The horses who ran in the LA Derby are not Grade I stock. It was a grade II race anyway of young 3 yo\'s with one lone speed. Who cares if none come back to win. The horse ran a 1 that day without any up front pressure. So fugeddabout it already, use the info to your advantage.Why not bring some real examples to support your position? What was wrong with 2004 seminar comment? It\'s worth noting to look at how the horses handled the heat? Did any of them wash out? It\'s happened in prior BC in Florida.  None of the East Coast horses that year(03) held up to the CA heat in but the Euro\'s did. You used the Euro\'s to support your case. How does any of that prove your point? Contructive criticism is good for the product,(i think) but what your doing just takes up space.

For what it\'s worth High Limit beat Sun King in the Blue Grass and Sun King came back to run a game race in the Haskell. Are you sure the FIGs don\'t fit?

And for every negative point you\'ve made so far I\'ve read hundreds of favorable posts to the contrary

Hiding behind you screen name and taking shots at the TG team make you a big man in your own mind. It\'s clear to me you\'ve got an axe to grind, so come clean with the rest of us!!

NC Tony