ROTW

[J-DUB]

Can\'t seem to get by the logical figure horses in this race. Liam and Commentator appear to have a distinct edge over the rest. Much faster when they run their best. I give the edge to Commentator with the break in weight but Liam will be tough to deny. Looks like a short price exacta box.

[Labeebmile]

I guess I\'m going to be the lone dissenter in just handing this race over to Saint Liam. I think this horse can ship just fine as evident by previous country hopping travels. His \"subpar\" performances can be explained as just reactions to huge efforts. The question is whether his last was a huge effort? I would argue that it wasn\'t huge, but it certainly was an effort and expect him to regress a point or two off of his last. That being said, given the weight concession and the fact that he\'ll more than likely lose ground on the far turn makes him VERY vulnerable at what\'s sure to be a short price. I agree with others that the keys to wagering on this race are Eurosilver and Wiggins. I especially like Wiggins for the points mentioned in previous posts, second time Romans, racing into shape, never reacted badly to top efforts and a 10 pound weight advantage (that Guidry seems to have made).

[ronwar]

I will take the 4-1 on the entry. Commentator may be this good.  At least I hope so. Eurosilver underneath.  I don\'t think SL puts up one of his BIG ones today and at the weights and distance.....

[marcus]

Nice call on the ROTW and a very bettable price as well at 3-1 ...

I just got back from Saratoga.

Two things stood out for me besides how much I love that place.

I was suprised that Commentator fired another huge shot. I thought that was no lock. I was also a little surprised that St Liam couldn\'t get to him on the turn. I sort of knew Commentator would have a clear early lead and that would help him if he was ready for another big one, but I thought a Grade 1 quality horse like St Liam (who stayed with Ghostzapper in a hell of a ding dong battle last year through a quick middle pace) would be able to put serious pressure on Commentator before the last 70 yards. He didn\'t/couldn\'t. Commentataor has some quality to him too. I don\'t like the winner at equal weights based on what a saw and I think 10F is still a question mark. I also think St Liam would have beaten him if there was someone else in there keeping Comm. honest on the lead (Roses in May?).

One of the reasons I didn\'t think Commentator was any lock to fire another big shot in the Whitney was/is my lack of admiration for his trainer who I think is often clueless about how good his horses are and how well they are doing at any give time. 30 seconds or so into the Noble Causway race my views were affirmed.