Causal Factors, David. Really.

[Mall]

It is unfortunate that some handicappers don\'t understand sample sizes & misuse or misread statistics, but these are certainly not arguments in favor of not providing any statistics, any more than relating what \"seemed\" to happen to a single individual when he was hanging out with his pals at Suf. Depending on the individual race, training & breeding info may or may not trump the nos., & may or may not cause one to make or not make a bet, but it\'s an important part of the picture whether figure purists believe it or not. At this point, are there still people who don\'t think that Baffert\'s & Lukas\' charges should be upgraded in TC events? And your last post acknowledges, appropriately, that one of the factors which should be considered in the 3d leg is the horses\' breeding. On Sat,TG users will have access to such info, including the best dam side breeding info available, while all you\'ll have is the names. Lastly & perhaps most importantly, TG users can look at the race summaries & have a reasonable idea how the nos. were earned. Using the Mass Cap as an example, the reason Macho was an on-top only key wasn\'t entirely because he had better nos., 3 of which were earned in races where he went wide & lost. Given his post position & the pace scenario, Macho figured to save more ground than usual, so his better nos. resulted in a trip to the winners\' circle. Tell me how you could possibly know that from the nos. alone, which is one of the reasons I made the switch 2 yrs. ago. A lot of Raggies don\'t seem to understand that the mutuel clerks pay those with tickets on the winning horse, not those with tickets on the horse which ran the best no.

[JRL]

Most Ragozin user do buy a racing form, from which most of this information can be determined.  I don\'t think that anyone will dispute that JB provides more and better data, separate from his numbers.  But I don\'t see why any of us would pay $25 or $30 for that info (which you can get much cheaper elsewhere).  We are paying for the numbers.  

Your example does not make a lot of sense.  First the Ragozin Sheets do tell you how wide a horse was in his prior races.  Second, knowing that Mach Uno was wide in earning his previous numbers has no bearing unless you were playing against him on the basis that he was going to run wide again.  The number is the number. If you want to do a trip analysis for a future race, then you may add a point or two to a horse that is always wide, and that you expect to be wide again.  However, in this case, you did not do that, thus looking at the numbers alone would have reached the same result.

[Michael D.]

Most of the training and breeding stats that are included in the TG sheets can not be found in the Racing Form. TG gives their figures for the dam of the runner (breaking them down into sprint/route and dirt/turf), as well as the numbers for the dam\'s other offspring. For example, you could have seen that Came Home\'s dam had produced mainly sprinters (even the AP Indy horse was a sprinter). Because Came Home was a Derby contender, everybody knew this info, but if he were a relatively unknown horse stretching out to a mile and a quarter, the info would have helped. TG gives trainer/jockey ROI stats that can be very helpful, stats which are not included in the Form. I could go on, but I suggest you take a look at the product, decide for yourself. As for the post on the other board today, I am sure it turned off a lot of Ragozin users. To drop to the level of questioning your competitors work ethic in order to get ahead in the figures game is a bit stupid.

[dpatent1]

Mall,

I don\'t disagree with anything there.  I always factor in ground likely saved, lost etc. in every race where I think that may be a factor.  That is not statistics, that is just basic handicapping.

It is also true that there are times that trainer and other angles make some sense to consider.  In my post on the other board I was not at all denigrating the inclusion of stats on TG\'s sheets.  I was referring to blind use of certain percentages that are usually the result of a small sample or just a bizarre coincidence.  Would you really downgrade a gelding in the Derby if his numbers and pattern made him figure?  Was Go For Gin a bad bet in the Derby because he had never won a stakes race?  That\'s the kind of stuff I\'m talking about.

[superfreakicus]

\"As for the post on the other board today, I am sure it turned off a lot of Ragozin users. \"


if you\'re really sure about this, then I would like to invite you to the belmont day handicapping contest.

[Anonymous User]

Mall, if you projected the pace scenario, Macho\'s ground saving trip with a wide trip by Include I have to tip my hat. I tried to factor the pace scenario and blew it. Griffinite had shown a ratable side at 9 marks and I projected an easier pace than what actually occurred. I knew he could scorch it if he wanted, but I really thought they\'d try and make a race out of it and I had numbers to back up that opinion. I remember cashing on a seven-furlong sprint once. I actually projected the splits and where each horse would be throughout the race. As the race unfolded it turned out EXACTLY how I had pictured it in my mind and my horse won for fun. I don\'t put that kind of pace effort in any longer. Perhaps I should. Include does have a tendency to take the circuitous route. But I still think that race was won by Macho when Bailey took back, made an early move and ran wide. Include\'s middle fraction (including ground loss) is gonna be fast. To me a minute and fifty seconds is a long time to find position with just 8 horses to concern yourself with, especially when you\'re the renowned traffic rider. People won\'t say it cause he's Jerry \"Dubai Classic\" Bailey, but he gets an F for that ride and gets set down for days too.

lol

Tabi

[Alydar in California]

Superfreakicus: If you are Dave from the Sheets board, how about blessing us with some of those charming \"no text\" messages?

[Michael D.]

   I am not sure if a business practice of questioning your competitors work ethic has anything to do with the handicapping challenge on Saturday, but I will be posting.
Good Luck Superman!!

[superfreakicus]

nt