7th at Belmont + Question to JB

[jimbo66]

Looks to me like a really good TGraph play today in the 7th at Belmont, if the morning line comes close to holding up.  You have Levine\'s Clever Electrician returning off an 8 month layoff.  He ran a top of around 1.5 last year as a 5 year old.  He comes in with a 123 pound impost.

Legislature comes into the race off a three race pattern of 1.75, 18, 1.75 and carries 116 pounds, with the 18 coming at in a 1 1/4 mile race.  

Legislature is 7-2 on the morning line, with Clever Electician 7-5.  On Beyer figures, the last race for Legislature looks slow, with only an 83 beyer, but like I said, with a 1.75 Tgraph figure, the horse looks fast enough.

As a six year old, off an extended layoff, not sure that Clever Electrician can fire a new top, and even if he pairs his top, at the weights, he still could lose.  Makes him an underlay in my book.  Doubt I get 7-2 on Legislature in the short field, but even at 5-2 looks like a great bet to me.  For added confidence, Hushion is on fire at Belmont, going 12 for his last 35.

The question for JB is in assessing the pattern of Legislature.  The T-Graph pattern shows a pair-x-pair, which is correct.  The T-Graph pattern assesses the last three races, regardless of distance or surface.  In this case, the horse ran the lousy race at a distance of 1 1/4 miles.  Based on the big figures at short distances, it seems to me to be very plausible to ignore this race completely in assessing the horse\'s form.  The \"x\" was probably not due to his form cycle but due to the distance (IMO).  So, I am handicapping this race almost as if the horse is coming in off of paired 1.75, which would make him much more likely to either pair up or even run a new top.  

Just wondering if you (or other T-Graph players), make the same assumptions when you see a lousy race at either a new surface or distance, or is it going too far to consider the horse coming into this race as having paired up his 1.75\'s.

Jim

[HP]

Jim,

I would guess that the top effort 15 days ago (is 1.75 a lifetime top?) will put a dent in Legislature today.  Also, Legislature is a 6yo, and I don\'t see too many 6yos running new tops.

\"So, I am handicapping this race almost as if the horse is coming in off of paired 1.75, which would make him much more likely to either pair up or even run a new top.\"

This would probably be true if Legislature were a 3yo, but probably not true at 6.  

I\'m at a slight disadvantage without the sheet in front of me.

This is subjective, but \"5/2\" and \"great bet\" generally don\'t go in the same sentence for me...  I wouldn\'t take 5/2 on Legislature, I\'d pass and look for something better.

Good luck.

BTW, is Dutrow\'s sub\'s horse going to run in the 9th?  Any opinions?

HP
 

[jimbo66]

Good points HP.

Even though he is 6, he has only had 14 lifetime races.  Not sure if that would make him much more likely to run a new than a 6 year old with 30 races (I have no stats and no clue on that).

I also hear you on the 5-2/great bet.  I know a few smart gamblers (there is such a thing), that don\'t consider making substantial win bets unless the odds are 5-1 or higher.  

I guess for me, if I make the horse 50% to win the race, then 5-2 is a great bet (by my subjective definition).

You don\'t have the sheet in front of you, but West Virginia looks slow and an underlay, SHow Boot\'s top is a 4, which is not likely to win here, Karakorum Patriot is steady, but too slow.  To me it is 80% plus that either Legislature or Clever Electrician win the race and I make Legislature more likely at the weights.  Given the relative odds, I am going to take my chances.

The 1.75 is a pair up of the top.  (your question)

[TGJB]

Jimbo-- right off the bad one I would not have known what to do with it, but once he came back to run well around one turn I agree that it would be wrong to hold stopping at 1 1/4 against him. I would say that even if you disregard that race, you are looking at a pair with quite a bit of time in between, which he doesn\'t have this time. But I would still think he\'s around 50/50 to run his number, which means not much less than that to win.

[HP]

I would say I don\'t expect 6yos to run new tops (certain turf horses excepted, and even then, I don\'t EXPECT it, but it happens sometimes).  Fourteen starts means something is wrong.  I don\'t know if Legislature is going to win, but I would bet you almost anything that he will NOT run a new top.  I hate to say this without looking at the sheet, but going by your description I would probably be willing to bet he won\'t pair up either.  He\'ll probably run worse than he did last out (of course the Hushion angle is a loose end).  

The way I would look at it is, he\'s 50% to win the race (I accept your proposition and your analysis), and if he wins, I get 5/2.  If he loses I get nothing.  If this is the best proposition available I have to force myself to wait, since I\'m interested in horse racing to get odds that are SUBSTANTIALLY better than I get at blackjack (3/2).  

Hey take a swing!  It\'s only money.  I\'ve done worse.  All this logic gives me a headache sometimes.  

Good luck.

HP

[jimbo66]

You were probably right, it is doubtful that LEgislature ran a new top.  The other six year old, coming off the 8 month layoff, might have.  1:08.3 is pretty quick.  We\'ll see how the numbers come back.

Knew before the race that Legislature would finish 2nd.  Bet 9 races today, between Bel and Churchill, and came in 2nd place 7 times.  No winners.  Hard to do.  

Then I wonder why my blood pressure is up.  I told the doctor it wasn\'t the extra 40 pounds I am carrying............

[HP]

I saw the race.  Legislature went off 2/1.  I thought he ran really well, came again at the end to get second...  

I caught the 8th exacta at Churchill -- Casuarina hung on for second at 26-1 (was almost identical to the winner figure wise -- lightly raced 4yo was a half to two stakes winners).  The favorite looked like it could go either way...

Check out the 9th at MTH in the redboard room tmw.  The winner was an 0-for-18 maiden, but second fastest going in and 25-1 (!).  The favorite was Orseno\'s horse, second out at 4/5, looked like it could go either way.  One of the first timers filled out the exacta ($500!).  

HP