GHOSTZAPPER's FIGS

[jbelfior]

TGJB---


Congratulations on being quoted in the \"Thoroughbred Times\" (June 11 issue, page 6).

Four speed figure services are mentioned with reagrds to GZ\'s figures starting with his race in the Vosburgh as a 3yo.

Still not sure how the Rags came up with their Met Mile figure ( -1 1/4) which looks like the only one out of whack when compared to the others (Thoro, Beyer, Brisnet).



Good Luck,
Joe B.

There was a mild rain before the Met. They also rolled the track.  IMO, that race \"HAD\" to be broken out from the rest of day. That could account for any variations in the figures for the Met.

I\'m still waiting for horses like Silver Wagon, Pomeroy, and Sir Shackleton to come back to see if they verify the exceptionally high figure given to Ghostzapper that day by almost everyone.

I made the middle part of that race very fast, but those 3 raced far enough off it to not be impacted as much as Forest Danger and Love of Money.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Silver Wagon prolly came close to equalling his career top of Neg 1.3, he was beaten six lengths, but ran a bit more wide I believe. (lost the chart) The track was quick by that time. Who knows negative 4, negative 6, it doesnt really matter. He was a very good one turn horse, however unsound. He failed to establish a great horse two turn record. He did win the B.C. Classic but the strip was very biased and the field collapsed. He needed to prove it in other 10 mark races against healthy fields and just wasn\'t up to it. Thankfully its over.

St. Liam is a good horse. So is Roses in May and he beat them both, but weighing it all on the huge negative speed figures is probably an error. Theres been other Negative 5 horses and the question is are extremely fast \"comparison\" figures reliable?

[TGJB]

Nobody in the Met got a new top from us, the only horse that even ran his previous top was GZ. The only question with that race was whether to give them 3/4 point better, which would have paired the second horse to his top, and given the others figures that were slightly less bad. We heard your theories about pace affecting the figures, drop it.

TGJB,

What\'s the problem with discussing the figure?

I thought you would appreciate the fact that I was pointing out that there was track change prior to the Met and that could account for the figure the Rags supposedly gave him. (I haven\'t seen their full sheet for him - just responding to the first post in the thread)

I think everyone on earth except me and beyerguy gave Ghostzapper a very big speed figure for that race and we are only a tad slower than everyone else.

I am not particularly interested in the pace aspect of the figure because Ghostzapper is gone and it\'s pretty obvious that Love of Money and Forest Danger didn\'t run back to their typical figures. People can decide for themselves what portion of that was related to the pace, the distance, and/or going off form for each horse.

I am more interested in the fact that it rained prior to the race and the track was rolled making it more difficult to make a figure. I\'d like to get a good line on the rest of that field. I consider it significant that a race either was or should have been broken out because of things like that. I put less weight on questionable figures until I see some evidence of their validity.

I am considering betting against Silver Wagon in his next start. It wouldn\'t hurt if I got a chance to see Pomeroy and Sir Shackleton run first so I am more confident of what actually happened in that race.  

[TGJB]

CH-- read what I wrote again.

TGJB,

If I understand your point correctly, I know that the figures fit together nicely and there were no new tops on your figures.

I hope you understand my point too - which is that it rained and the track was rolled so I am always less confident in the figures when they are based on only one race - even when they look pretty. That goes double under certain other conditions.  

[TGJB]

CH-- what the hell\'s the matter with you?

1-- They sealed and reopened the track during the card. Under no circumstances would I have tied the races together, as I have made clear countless times here, including recently about Belmont Day.

2-- My admonition to you was specific, and about not posting AGAIN about pace affecting the figures some horses ran. It was NOT about cutting the race loose.

3-- Are you really so self-absorbed and disassociated from reality that you think people here care whether you have confidence in the figures, and want to read several repetitive posts from you on the subject? This is what I meant about posts really being about one\'s self. IT\'S A THORO-GRAPH SITE.

4-- As I have said several times recently, now that the TC is behind us and I have more time, I am going to police this board, and keep nonsense off it. The only reason I did NOT take down those posts was because of the comments about track work and cutting the race loose-- if you had gone down the pace path more than once I would have deleted your comments.

TGJB,

>1-- They sealed and reopened the track during the card. Under no circumstances would I have tied the races together, as I have made clear countless times here, including recently about Belmont Day. <

I know. For the life of me I can\'t understand why you automatically assume the worst from me. It\'s at the point where you can\'t even understand when I\'m complimenting the fact that you would know to do so and your major competitor might not.  

>2-- My admonition to you was specific, and about not posting AGAIN about pace affecting the figures some horses ran. It was NOT about cutting the race loose. <

Fine. I understand that you like to avoid my dicussions of that subject.

>3-- Are you really so self-absorbed and disassociated from reality that you think people here care whether you have confidence in the figures, and want to read several repetitive posts from you on the subject? This is what I meant about posts really being about one\'s self. IT\'S A THORO-GRAPH SITE. <

It had nothing to do with confidence in TG figures. It had to do with the value oriented handicapping insight that some figures (no matter who the figure maker is) are of higher quality than others because of changes in track speed or other complicating factors. I\'d bet a few of your customers don\'t have much experience with the figure making process and others may not know the specifics of the race in question. If the idea is to keep them ignorant so they never question any figure no matter what the circumstances, I think you are underrating the  majority of your customers and may be doing a few experienced ones a disservice.

>4-- As I have said several times recently, now that the TC is behind us and I have more time, I am going to police this board, and keep nonsense off it. The only reason I did NOT take down those posts was because of the comments about track work and cutting the race loose-- if you had gone down the pace path more than once I would have deleted your comments.<

I understand.

Believe me, 90% of your problem with me is in your own head. You can\'t even tell when I\'m trying to help you because you always assume the worst. The pace reference was there to say that IMO it wasn\'t a complicating factor for the horses in question.

[Millennium3]

Class:

Since you don\'t listen to Jerry when he tells you to shut up about your pace figures and your \"analysis\" agreeing with your, well, analysis, then let me second Jerry\'s request:

Shut the hell up about your pace figure nonsense. Nobody cares about it, and no one wants to read about your musings about them. We\'re tired of your:

1) Endless pontifications
2) Incessant drivel about how YOU think Jerry\'s figure making process should take into account your worthless pace figure nonsense.
3) Constant Craving for attention, characterized by your shockingly consistent self absorption.

If you have something to offer besiides your opinions, OK. But I repeat: NOBODY here wants to hear you bloviate endlessly about the inner ramblings of that cavernous space between your ears. Get a life.

[richiebee]

TGJB:

   I\'ve never met you, but by your own admission on your own board 1) you have roaches in your apartment and 2) your golf game is in the toilet (mine also). The last thing you should be concerned about is the voice of a lone stranger.

   I have learned something from almost everyone who posts seriously on this board. When I see that He Who Must Repeat Himself has authored a post, I basically turn the page. I\'m sure my name affixed to a post has a similar effect on others.

   Is this the man who, after cashing a bet on a Pletcher animal, gushed that he wanted to have the trainer\'s baby? That was both an indecent proposal and an unnatural suggestion. And to disclose on this board that he was a shareholder in the organization headed by the Oracle of Omaha, just downright elitist and uncalled for.

   Ignore the man, JB. Keep your head down, swing easy, and keep presenting a great product
 

\"Is this the man who, after cashing a bet on a Pletcher animal, gushed that he wanted to have the trainer\'s baby? That was both an indecent proposal and an unnatural suggestion.\"

You should get some help with that sense of humor of yours.


\"And to disclose on this board that he was a shareholder in the organization headed by the Oracle of Omaha, just downright elitist and uncalled for.\"

Only after being insulted for the (lost count) time. This time after making a very basic comment about insurance - it was suggested that I don\'t know anything about the subject either even though I\'ve been involved with it for almost 20 years via my investments and learned everything I do know about it from someone worth listening to. It may have been uncalled for, but so are insults and I responded.

I get the message about pace guys.

The thread owner would rather not discuss the issue in terms that that open up everyone\'s speed figures for certain races to greater scrutiny and some of the minions prefer not to think about the subject at all. IMO, that makes it almost impossible to discuss numerical handicapping at the level that is required to gain a worthwhile edge in a era when everyone has high quality speed figures.

So good luck not discussing it and not thinking about it.






   

[HP]

Thanks and good luck to you too.  HP