Handicapping the Undercard

[jimbo66]

Let\'s take a shot at the card.  Spent most of last night torn between handicapping the Belmont card and getting sick watching the Pistons and my 5-2 series bet get off to bad start.

I think I am \"cycling\" to a winning day.  Maybe this Saturday...

1st Race - Can\'t make a win bet this race.  Can\'t find a reason to bet against Contrast. May use her in doubles and will consider exactas over Aces Capella and Factual Contender, as those two look more likely to finish 2nd than the shorter odds horses.  

2nd Race - Tough race.  Lots of horses running in the same range. The favorites aren\'t any faster than some of the longer priced horses.  Gonna use Positively Wild, She\'s Sterling and Deflation in the doubles, with Contrast.  Probably take a shot at a win bet on either She\'s Sterling or Deflation at square odds.  Both are fast enough and get good jockey changes.

3rd Race - Hoping Ice Wynd and fire goes off the favorite.  Inclined to forgive the last race for Yankee Mon, as it was at 1 1/8.  Might get back to her good one the race before.  Respect Dwango also, off of two figures that could win this, but don\'t like the slight regression last time.  

4th Race - Storm Minstrel and Strategy are both \"bet againsts\".  Neither is faster than several others and they figure 1st and 2nd favorites.  Judy Soda\'s last was real fast, she could bounce 3 points and still win.  At 5-1 ML, worth play.  Also a little interested in Game Card.  Two back, ran a \"4\", which is better than anybody else in this race, except Judy Soda.  Regressed a little last time, but if Judy bounces badly, this one has a shot at square odds.

5th Race - Another favorite to bet against.  Night Chapter and his paired \"4\"s just make him a moderate contender.  No value as the favorite.  Willing to take a shot with No Parole here.  Will be 12-1 or so, and has three races last year, on the turf, all at Belmont, right in a row, that make him very tough here.  His first race this year was a little slow, but the \"buried 5\" is not terrible and there is reason to believe we could see his typical \"Belmont\" race here.  Will use with Not Phone and Provincetown.

6th Race - I like Key Deputy here, especially at the weights.  His last puts him maybe 1 point off the fastest in here, but with the weight he gets, that makes him co-fastest.  That last race at Churchill was a \"key race\" for those that believe in that theory.  5 of the 7 have come back to run, with all five finishing 1st or 2nd.  Post 12 is tough, but the colt has natural speed and should be able to get a spot without losing much ground.  Will use in exactas with Smokeume, With Distinction, and longshot Aggadan.  Would normally like Smokeume in this spot on top, but can\'t bet chantal Sutherland against the top jockeys in a big field.  Have to let her beat me.

7th Race - Intercontinental will be a tough favorite here.  Willing to take a shot with Sand Spring though.  Got back to a \"3\" in her last, just off her previous top of \"2\".  Gets a six pound pull in the weights from Intercontinental, which makes her as fast, on her best.  This horse MUST break well though.  Needs to be on the lead, nursed along by Johnny V., saving ground.  Another slow break and I wasted money.

8th Race - Two horse race.  Egghead vs Lost in the Fog.  Egghead comes in two points faster on T-Graph.  He gets 4 pounds, gets a positive jockey switch and positive trainer change.  5-2 on Egghead versus 1-2 on Lost in the Fog.  Easy decision on who to bet.  The concern is that Lost in the Fog figures loose on the lead in here and will control the fractions.  Also have to worry about bouncing from Egghead.  His last two are amazing but his others are much slower.  All of Lost in the Fog\'s races are fast.  Side note.  I have heard Lost in the Fog is 1 to 2 points faster than Egghead on Rags, so an interesting contrast in figures.  I would be curious as to how comfortable jerry is with the Delaware and PHilly park races of egghead.

9th Race - Will probably take a shot with Gygistar.  Comes in off three straight races in the negative 1 range.  Yes, the 1 1/8 distance is a question mark, but the current form of the horse, positive pattern and affinity for Belmont are not.

10th Race - Good race.  May be willing to take a shot here with Saint Stephen.  Comes in off of paired \"2\'s\" and gets an 8 pound pull in the weights from Artie Schiller.  That makes SS faster than the favorite.  Meteor Storm\'s last was real good, but have to figure the horse loses ground from post 11.  Willing to use Mustanfar as well, as this distance is better for him and he had lots of trouble in his last.  Contends on his best.  

11th Race - Kind of sold on Southern Africa after reading the ROTW.  Don\'t like Giacomo at all, although the paired \"0\'s\" look good.  Surprised at the figure for Reverberate in the Peter Pan, thought he ran faster than that.  Will be spread out in the pick 4 here, using Southern Africa, Reverberate, Chekhov and Pinpoint.  

Probably be leaving after the Belmont, so didn\'t handicap the last two.

Good luck.

 

[TGJB]

Jimbo-- the Del and Pha figures are solid, and it\'s worth noting that we had AA and High Limit much faster off their Del figures than anyone else did when they came into Sar and FG . The big question is HOW horses earned their figures-- don\'t have any opinion on Egg Head, but the Mid-Atlantic is the move-up capitol of the world.

[jimbo66]

Thanks Jerry.

And yes, you referred to the \"move up\" angle for this race yesterday, but I didn\'t get it.

I don\'t follow the Mid-Atlantic or Northern California circuits too much, but I know a few people who do.

Lynda Knee (previous trainer of Egghead) doesn\'t seem to be a name that would be on a lot of people\'s \"move up\" trainer list.

And Greg Gilchrist (trainer of Lost in the Fog) apparently would show up on some people\'s lists of \"move up\" trainers.

So, to me, that would make the negative 3\'s for Egghead more legit and Lost in the Fog more susceptible to the \'detention barns\' at Belmont and their impact on the race.  

Of course it gets more complicated now that Egghead goes to McLaughlin, as he has been known to move them up........

[TGJB]

Here\'s my thinking on a situation like this-- I don\'t believe that if a horse was getting something a trainer would go out of his way to ship 3,000 miles to run without it. It\'s not always the trainer\'s choice, but they can usually find a way to get out of it (by total coincidence, Da Hoss got a high white blood cell count a couple of times when I wanted to run in a stake that Dickenson didn\'t. That stopped after farm manager Rich Decker asked to see the vet report).

McGaughlin hasn\'t been doing so well recently, for whatever reason. See last 90 days.

It will be really great when we don\'t have to guess what we don\'t know.

[Caradoc]

Jerry, I see what you mean if you look at the runs-based stats for McLaughlin, but I would have thought you would have focused on his figure-based stats.  If so, they look pretty good (19% new tops, 32% pairs), and are comparable to his overall figure-based stats (16% new tops, 34% pairs).  Isn\'t this a case where the runs-based stats are misleading?

[TGJB]

Caradoc-- could be. We\'re putting together some figure based before and after studies on NYRA trainers for one of the few outfits serious about stopping the nonsense, we\'ll post them next week when done (George?).

Jimbo,

\"concern is that Lost in the Fog figures loose on the lead in here and will control the fractions\"

I\'m not 100% convinced that Lost in the Fog gets the lead here, let alone loose. I know the fractions of his last look very fast, but they weren\'t. His prior race was definitey slow paced and he rated in the race before that.

I think Going Wild is cranked for this and will try for the lead. (look at the 4F works coming in)

I actually think Prado would be smart to let him have it if he wants it and move outside to a stalking position. That shouldn\'t be too difficult because they might clear the rest of the horses. If he guns to stay inside and keep the lead, I don\'t think that would be very smart unless Going Wild is just slow early. Going Wild was a bad joke during the Triple Crown, but he was simply overmatched, running too far, and chasing Bellamy Road, Spanish Chestnut, High LImit, and other sprint quality speed in the Lexington. That may have been the worst set of races for any horse in the history of the Universe.  I\'m not saying he can win here (though I think he can run well if there\'s no duel), but I think he\'s actually a pretty good horse and can take some starch out of a horse like Lost in the Fog if they duel.

As to the two favorites, I think I prefer Lost in the Fog by just a hair because he\'s been at that high level for a longer period of time and beat some good horses in the Swale fairly easily. I think the trainer change for Egg Head is more of a plus than a negative.  

Personally, I think the race will be unbettable. They won\'t be too far apart in price and they aren\'t too far apart on recent form.

How about this?

Egghead doesn\'t duplicate his best form.
Lost in the Fog duels with Going Wild.

Survivalist/Proud Accolade exacta.

Now that would be funny!

 


 

[jimbo66]

Class,

I don\'t think you are right about the pace Class.  Going Wild, coming out of route races where he couldn\'t make the lead, will make the lead sprinting.

I would like to think you are right here, but I doubt it.  Plus, you are starting to give \"pace handicappers\" a bad name after your Preakness pace analysis.  I am still waiting for your mea culpa about the pace of the Preakness.  Not slow  

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Like that analysis Class and agree with you that Going Wild has been compromised by his outside holes in the Classic races. Toss the wet track Lexington and something was amiss in the Wood. He\'s quick, better than folks think. Hes\' working well and the inside is golden. Bailey up, hes gonna make Foggy work. Eggman is honest, those are not bogus figures. He didn\'t bounce on 2 weeks, so its hard to say he\'ll bounce on a month. Biggest concern (other than foggy) is the track. Caught it slop first time, but man was he coming.

classhandicapper Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Jimbo,
>
> \"concern is that Lost in the Fog figures loose on
> the lead in here and will control the fractions\"
>
> I\'m not 100% convinced that Lost in the Fog gets
> the lead here, let alone loose. I know the
> fractions of his last look very fast, but they
> weren\'t. His prior race was definitey slow paced
> and he rated in the race before that.
>
> I think Going Wild is cranked for this and will
> try for the lead. (look at the 4F works coming in)
>
>
> I actually think Prado would be smart to let him
> have it if he wants it and move outside to a
> stalking position. That shouldn\'t be too difficult
> because they might clear the rest of the horses.
> If he guns to stay inside and keep the lead, I
> don\'t think that would be very smart unless Going
> Wild is just slow early. Going Wild was a bad joke
> during the Triple Crown, but he was simply
> overmatched, running too far, and chasing Bellamy
> Road, Spanish Chestnut, High LImit, and other
> sprint quality speed in the Lexington. That may
> have been the worst set of races for any horse in
> the history of the Universe.   I\'m not saying he
> can win here (though I think he can run well if
> there\'s no duel), but I think he\'s actually a
> pretty good horse and can take some starch out of
> a horse like Lost in the Fog if they duel.
>
> As to the two favorites, I think I prefer Lost in
> the Fog by just a hair because he\'s been at that
> high level for a longer period of time and beat
> some good horses in the Swale fairly easily. I
> think the trainer change for Egg Head is more of a
> plus than a negative.  
>
> Personally, I think the race will be unbettable.
> They won\'t be too far apart in price and they
> aren\'t too far apart on recent form.
>
> How about this?
>
> Egghead doesn\'t duplicate his best form.
> Lost in the Fog duels with Going Wild.
>
> Survivalist/Proud Accolade exacta.
>
> Now that would be funny!
>
>  
>
>
>  
>
>
>
> Edited 1 times. Last edit at 06/10/05 05:13PM by
> classhandicapper.