Finally the Chart

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I\'m pretty sure wide was the place to be. Very much like Bluegrass day.

HP,

I wasn\'t clear. This is the way I see it.

Beyer gave the race a 100 (that\'s what I heard at least). That sounds about right to me based on the results (give a couple of points).

Closing Argument\'s race is a LOT better than a 99. Exactly how much better I can\'t say, but definitely better because he was reasonably close to that pace even though he wasn\'t on top of it. He was probably close enough to take a little starch out of him. Plus he lost plenty of ground. However, a 100/99 itself is a pretty bad figure for the Derby. So whatever extra you want to assign to him for being wide and being close to the heated pace, it converts into a very good race but not super. If the race itself was pretty fast and he overcame that tough trip, I\'d say he ran super.

I\'m not really sure how much the pace actually factored in even though I\'m sure it did factor in.

Horses like Going Wild and Spanish Chestnut figured to collapse under any circumstances. High Fly/Flower Ally were a little suspect at 10F. FA wasn\'t all that good to begin with. So how much was pace and how much was distance?

BR had a similar trip to to CA (maybe a little tougher because he was closer). However, I really wasn\'t all that sure he was going to run another great race to begin with given that he had never beaten anyone or ever faced any pressure in his life.  

I know this is probably not a satisfactory answer (maybe even annoying :-), but unfortunately I think it\'s very difficult to measure this stuff. I do the best I can to be approximately right instead of exactly wrong. :-)



Post Edited (05-09-05 11:43)

[big18741]

Closing Argument ran these splits:

22.70  23.80  23.93  25.51  26.91  

His first 6f\'s was very solid and he was always within 2 lengths of Bellamy Road who completely fell apart.High Fly is a miler at best.Afleet Alex needs soft fractions in a two turn race to have any punch.He didn\'t get them and won\'t in Baltimore.Honestly,the winner didn\'t run any different from the way he\'s been running in Cal.Slow and steady.Closing Argument ran a really nice MILE -after that it was a case of the field being wretched.What a bunch of pigs.

The Preakness is begging for a new shooter.

Giacomos splits:

24.78  23.44  24.33  24.55  25.65  steady grinder.



Post Edited (05-09-05 10:49)

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

big18741 wrote:

> Closing Argument ran these splits:
>
> 22.70  23.80  23.93  25.51  26.91  
>
> His first 6f\'s was very solid and he was always within 2
> lengths of Bellamy Road who completely fell apart.

Bellamania may not have completely fallen apart. He chased hot fractions on the best part of the track and having expended more energy than he had to in his previous two \"no mas, no mas\" fights, he foreseeably tired. Still not a bad effort.

High Fly is a
> miler at best.

High Fly was a little close to hot fractions, but he\'s already proven to be a good 9 mark horse.

Afleet Alex needs soft fractions in a two turn
> race to have any punch.

Afleet was on a part of the track that was not ideal and he assuredly moved backwards some. Still he almost won continuing to run on a slower part while his two main rivals ran the stretch on a far better part.

He didn\'t get them and won\'t in
> Baltimore.

The Baltimore race has to be a concern because Afleet Alex ran hardest of the bouncers on a deeper part of the track. But, hes far better than the two that beat him and probably better than the marvelous Bellamania.

Honestly,the winner didn\'t run any different from the
> way he\'s been running in Cal.Slow and steady.Closing Argument
> ran a really nice MILE -after that it was a case of the field
> being wretched.

What a bunch of pigs.

Obviously you are deep into fractions. Beyer is a smart guy, but hes so wholly into his numbers he can\'t see the big picture. He zigs when he should zag. Bellamani had to be feared on how fast everyone said he was, but conditions were stacked way against him.

>
> The Preakness is begging for a new shooter.

What will happen is horses that did not fire or were disadvantaged in the Derby will rebound in the Preakness. Scrappy is a good horse, but hes got his hands full with the quality he\'s about to see.

>
> Giacomos splits:
>
> 24.78  23.44  24.33  24.55  25.65  steady grinder.
>
>

[big18741]

Chuck

The only horses that didn\'t fire that might be going on to Baltimore are:

Noble Causeway-I think he has some potential,but in his 3 two turn races at GP he came home really crawling.He could be good down the road.

Sun King-He has one good race on his page-a one turn mile.

Bellamy Road-His Wood was superb-his Derby wasn\'t.His Breeders Futurity was a bad looking race also.A few I\'ve talked to look for the Point Given bounce back in Baltimore.I think he could be more along the lines of a Midway Road type.The one incredible race mixed in with a bunch of common races.I can\'t get carried away with his one turner at Gp.I\'m not seeing George holding up a trophy next weekend.


I think High Fly ran his race.Same race that he ran in the Fla Derby-fast early slow late despite winning that one.He wore down BB Best and held of a slow closing NC.Scrappy T spanked BB in the Withers.I think High Fly is phony at any distance past a mile.The first 3 were swimming in the stretch of the FLA Derby.

Alex ran his race-he needs a vacation now before they wreck him.

Wilko another excuse-always the heel now a bleeder.Where is his good race ever?

The 1-2 horses from the Derby ran their races which won\'t come back anything special.

I question Scrappy at the distance,but he\'s fresh and improving.If Alex or Bellamy throw good ones he\'s in trouble.Nothing else in that field is much.He\'ll be a fat price.Giacomo was 50-1 now he\'ll be single digits.CA was 71-1 he might be 12-1.Do you want either of them at those prices?

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

big18741 wrote:

> Chuck
>
> The only horses that didn\'t fire that might be going on to
> Baltimore are:
>
> Noble Causeway-I think he has some potential,but in his 3 two
> turn races at GP he came home really crawling.He could be good
> down the road.

Thought NC was in trouble with High Fly in Fla. Derby and left him out, but for 4th. He collided with High Limit early and was down inside. The inside on that track was not a good place.
 
>
> Sun King-He has one good race on his page-a one turn mile.

I agree wholeheartedly with the one good race insight. I\'ve bet against him twice now and hes been no worry. Caveat, he was down inside, but still believe Zito has misidentified his \"Captain\".
>
> Bellamy Road-His Wood was superb-his Derby wasn\'t.His Breeders
> Futurity was a bad looking race also.A few I\'ve talked to look
> for the Point Given bounce back in Baltimore.I think he could
> be more along the lines of a Midway Road type.The one
> incredible race mixed in with a bunch of common races.I can\'t
> get carried away with his one turner at Gp.I\'m not seeing
> George holding up a trophy next weekend.

Really appreciated that 2001 race analogy an your view the Wood was a one time freak pop. Personally, I think he can be very good, IF he has it his own way. Theres a lot like that, Spend a Buck included. Though Bellamani aint near that quick.
 
 
> I think High Fly ran his race.Same race that he ran in the Fla
> Derby-fast early slow late despite winning that one.He wore
> down BB Best and held of a slow closing NC.

agreed


Scrappy T spanked BB
> in the Withers.I think High Fly is phony at any distance past a
> mile.The first 3 were swimming in the stretch of the FLA Derby.

Not sure BB was at his best Withers Day. Quite sure of it actually, he departed from his pace niche. Tend to agree High Fly doesnt want Classic distance unless he can get a favorably slow early part in the race.

>
> Alex ran his race-he needs a vacation now before they wreck
> him.

don\'t know what to make of Alex for the preakness yet. Beyer says he ran a 98 I suppose. He ran straight as a string down the stretch, but his stride wasn\'t near as powerful as Ark day. The bounce and track were factors.

> Wilko another excuse-always the heel now a bleeder.Where is his
> good race ever?

Wilko may not want classic distance. His big race was 8.5 marks and he still hasn\'t bettered it.

 
> The 1-2 horses from the Derby ran their races which won\'t come
> back anything special.

Tend to agree, little less certain with CA. Assuming he ran on the best part of the track he overcame a hot pace. He was bearing out noticibly at the end. Out into the Swain path.

 
> I question Scrappy at the distance,but he\'s fresh and
> improving.If Alex or Bellamy throw good ones he\'s in
> trouble.Nothing else in that field is much.

Tend to agree but for CA, not a bad horse.

He\'ll be a fat
> price.Giacomo was 50-1 now he\'ll be single digits.CA was 71-1
> he might be 12-1.Do you want either of them at those prices?

CA is gonna be less than 12-1. hes gonna be 6/8-1