The Big Cap

[bdhsheets@hotmail.com]

With the defection of Mizzen Mast with a quarter crack, everyone and his uncle is shooting for the $600k winners prize.

Frankel in a GI always has to be respected. His entry of Euchre (116) and Milwaukee Brew (113) 7/2 is very beatable. 6yo Euchre has a string of five straight 2.0\'s yawn! MB has a 1/2 pt top in his last to a 2.3 three weeks rest. His closing style from the 12 hole will cause huge ground loss at least on last turn that will negate his 5# edge in weight. Huge underlay

Cagney: 8-1 ()115) running 4\'s and 5\'s on the grass distance shouldn\'t be a problem. Still an underlay at 8-1

Fancy As: 6-1 (114) 4yo Canadian runner has paired up 2.3\'s for Baffy, gets blinks. 4.2 pts better than in Canuk land.

Sky Jack: 5-1 the (116) 0.3 (4.1 top) he ran 12/00 hurt, leading to a 15 month vacation, returns with a 1.2 and will be gunning with several others for the lead, not at 10F. underlay

Giant Gentleman: 5-1 (114) returned to his top of 1.2 in his last, ran 2nd twice to Mizzen Mast, looking for a forward move. Will likely fall in behind Sky Jack. Solid.

Seinne: 30-1 (112) has top of 4.0 in US debut, 6.2 in last two. Passola

Kudos: 15-1 (115) Hmmmmmm his two off the board dirt finishes were 2yo sprints (won by Swept Overboard and Malabar Gold) after which he took a year off and started his turf career. His last was a 2.1 top on the dirt to a 2.0 in a race taken off the sod. While sire Kris S is thought of as a grass sire, his off spring run 1.1 faster on the dirt (not in T-Quick info) two weeks rest may not be enuff, but at the right price.

Freedom Crest: (116) 15-1 ugly BC race, but horse runs well fresh getting 2.0\'s after 153 and 70 days rest. No reason to think pattern won\'t repeat. ? about 10F

Futural: (118) 9/2 dreaded triple neg. #\'s lead to Pac Classic clunker at *8/5. His return 3 weeks ago 2.1. Trainer C. Dollase is 28% 2nd off the layoff. The ? is, did the 5+ months off help negate the affect of 3 negative numbers, maybe yes........

Irisheyesareflying: (116) 15-1`has gone into the infamous good number bad number pattern with a clunker due after equalling his top of 2.0 in his last. Starting from the 12 hole with speed inside him won\'t help.

Western Pride: 15-1 (116) fastest horse in the race with a neg. 1.1 at Crc 10/20; ran a second neg -0.2 1/12 at SA which led to the Strub Stks disaster 8.2. He\'s the speed of the speed and might clear getting the ground saving trip. I\'m not a fan of horses running big X\'s, trying a longer new distance with a suspect pedigree.

Field entry: 30-1

Last Parade (113) 6yo is too slow.

Dig For It (113) 7yo is THIRD FASTEST in the race with a couple of 0.3\'s including last years Pac Classic. Trainer Headley must have ingested significant amounts of mind altering drugs sending Dig For It to Japan, but he\'s winning at a 25% clip the last 90 days. DFI\'s last 3.2 is okay, he gets in light. The 0.3\'s have been rather random, but the last came after a 21 day layoff as today. At the odds will use him \"lightly in the exotics\" ;-)~ LOL

The play:

Giant Gentleman and Futural on top in tris with Fancy As, Frankel entry, Freedom Crest, Kudos and Dig For It

Exacta box GG, Futural and Freedom Crest

Good Luck to all!

bdhsheets

[Mall]

I don\'t think anyone can fault your dope, though some might conclude that this race is so wide open that it\'s unplayable. If you\'re right, you should be in for, and certainly deserve a big payday.

[mkram]

Freedom Crest sure has a nice OX pattern.  The BC debacle seems worst due to the lack of BUTE.  Still a tough call; would probably need a small forward move.  Gets a cold Nakatani (is he due?) but still a big game jock.

What to do...what to do?  Missed the 39-1 score; hate to miss another.  Probably a decision at the end.

Euchre is strong but would have like a move off the 2 by now.  Cagney needs 3-4 pt move; not today on dirt. Fancy As big move to those 2.2 paired tops spaced apart by 21 days will \"probably\" hurt. Sky Jack looks to react to the 1.2 secondary top off huge layoff.  Giant Genteleman - tough call; will play to bounce of top; been running steadily since August.  Seinne has not been able to get back to dirt top.  Kudos 2 on short rest must hurt.  Last Parade too slow.  Futural got hurt by those successive string of negs; came back to 2.1 secondary top after a long layoff; alot of respect for Dollase but playing that it will hurt.  Dig For it has isolated 0\'s but tough to like random pattern from post 11. Irish Eyes is interesting; pair the 2? somewhat steady pattern, has not been overraced lately; post 12 hurts.  Brew finally broke through 3 YO top by 1/2 pt.  Frankel/Desourmax combo is solid.  Did the 2.3 hurt?  Must save with the entry.  Western Pride has the numbers, but the tops are getting worst (go figure, 1 neg worst than another neg) and the bounces appear to be getting worst; post 14 w/ longshot special Valenzuela; still tough to like.

So, I guess I am playing Freedom Crest w/ the entry as a saver.  I love this game!

[Mall]

Perhaps there is something to the idea that 1/2 or more of the game is being disciplined & patient enough to pick your spots very carefully based on records which demonstrate that one has an edge in particular situations. If both of you have such records & they demonstrate that races like today\'s Big Cap fit the bill, then please disregard my earlier post & this message.

[mkram]

You are absolutely right; it is all about patience and discipline based on emperical evidence that leads to positive ROI.  It\'s more than 1/2 the game.  I  must say that my discipline and patience is tested often, especially when I go 4-6 weeks without a play.  And keeping those damn emotions out of it is a constant struggle.  I play based on often-repeatable patterns that work for me.

The OX pattern, a pattern of public knowledge, is not as strong a pattern compared to the other 5-7 that show me better results.  In terms of Freedom Crest, I fortunately did not play because the 9-1 was not enough value for a hard-reading OX line; obviously the 39-1 score in the Goodwin was a better play that my discipline based on my experience told me to pass.

The odds made the Big Cap unplayable for me.  Discipline and patience based on emperical evidence (and using T-Graph in my case) is the way to go.