DUE DILIGENCE

[davidrex]

     It was only a $1 ticket...another signer..oh well...I\'d like to thank my mentor{len friedman}....my guru{jerry brown}...and my shrink for putting me on medication{steve allday}

     PARTYpokerON!

[sekrah]

Congratulations Davidrex..

Good call with Closing Argument.. Can\'t hit all the longshots..

Just gotta find one you really like and play em with the field.


Good Score.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Davidrex, i didnt see you make the precise call. But you did say CA under 12 nags. Thats a nice one...lol

you may be the only one on this board

I can\'t get the chart from Equibase...wahts goin on



Post Edited (05-07-05 19:35)

[TGJB]

David-- very nice, can\'t say I had anything to do with it.

I ended up making some money on the day, not a lot, veering wildly between lucky (put up on the $25 horse, won a photo for the filly-grass exacta), and unlucky (when Madscape Escapade started backing up I thought I might make the biggest score of my life-- I ended up getting 1 to 2 on the race. Ouch). I singled Perfect Drift, but did make a small win bet on the Howard horse as a saver.

[hossgnat]

The only thing I did right was predicting that the race would fall apart, and not buying into Bellamymania.  The horses I chose to pick up the pieces ran in a line, but they finished 13-15-14, ouch.

My buddy in SoCal bet Giacomo across the board.  Here\'s what he sent me last night, I shrugged it off, but in hindsight he makes some insightful points.  Good for him, he scored big time.  

On to the Preakness for the rest of us...

>   1. Giacomo (10)
>
>   Nearly everyone agrees that the SoCal prep scene was weak in \'05.  But with a quick, dismissive pass, no one ever asks why.  With a record 36\" of rain this winter, horses and trainers alike dodged raindrops daily and missed a good share of training.  I now believe many of these horses came up short and were about a month behind the eastern horses during prep season.
>
>   There is no better example of this than Giacomo, a horse I backed in the mysterious, and potentially criminal SA Derby.   That race, run in 47.1 and 1:11.1 was slower than $20K filly claimers and seemed to focus more on what Sweet Catomine was doing than winning the race.  Smith did not ask much in the stretch and still held his own.  Giacomo had plenty of Graded Stakes money to get into the Derby, even before the debacle in SA, and since everybody expected the fastest filly in the world to run away and hide, I now belive that this was a million dollar workout.
>
>   Fast forward a few weeks and the typically conservative Shirreffs has suddenly stepped on the gas pedal.  The bullet on 4/25 at 7f is faster than the winning times in 7 of the 12 7f races found in all of the contenters\' past performance lines and 4 full seconds faster than his work for the San Felipe.  The 6f bullet on 5/1 is the fastest at 6f of any Derby workout, 3 full seconds faster than his SA Derby work and is one click faster than he ran the first 6f in the actual SA Derby.  Take your pick, the horse has trained his way into the missing knock-out punch or Sherriffs has simply lost it.
>
>   An improving horse, a trainer who has held the his best back in exchange for one very long stretch run, a hall-of-famer up and quite possibly the biggest line-up of front-runners in Derby history to run at leaves only one thing lacking.  You just gotta believe.  It\'s hard at 50-1 morning line, but I\'d bet this horse at 15-1.
>
>   A big move on the turn and a \"where did that come from?\" stretch drive puts this horse on my wall, in a very nice frame, forever.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

hoss,

you\'re buddy is quite impressive.

lets see how Giacomo scores out and fairs in the coming races.

but that guy is a careful thinker.

[Uncle Buck]

Your friend scored a giant hit and he should be congratulated. I read Hovdey\'s story on Moss and Sherrifs in Friday\'s DRF and it got me to looking further. Then early Friday morning I saw Mike Smith on Barf at Churchill on the \'Deuce and he was giving Quint Kessnick a video walkthough of the SA Derby. Smith said it right then...\"He took a while to get going and he was moving well at the end of the race. Then came the gallop out. He really galloped out strongly and I am really looking forward to a longer race with a long stretch,\"

It was then that I tabbed him for 2nd and 3rd potential and when it came time to place my advance bets last night at Baze Meadows, I wussed out and played him only in 3rd.

I still can\'t get over the race. I wasn;t really close so it doesn\'t hurt nearly as bad as being photo\'d out of thousands, perhaps millions!

The Super Pool was 8 mill so at least 4 people hit it. I bet one was Richard Branson. He and Moss are tight and Branson was rooting for Giacomo. He\'s a billionaire too so a super wheel is affordable to a guy like that.

After looking back at my bets, I had $100 across on AA so I got back gas money on the 4.60 show dough

[Mall]

Congrats to your friend & David. Pretty much the same points your friend makes were made by Paul Daley in an article in the Lowell Sun. I\'m as big a fan as anyone of big picture, out of the box thinking, but the logic escapes me. To state the obvious, just because one thing follows another doesn\'t mean that it caused it to happen. What he\'s saying only seems to make sense if the Calif horses as a whole were better before the rains came, & if this was something that only started to happen this yr. Remember Southern Image? Two yrs or so ago he shipped into CD from Calif for a big race which was the rotw(the Clark?) & appeared completely overmatched on nos, only to trounce the supposedly faster horses. The same thing had happened so many times before Southern Image\'s race that some of us were already subtracting 2-3 pts from the nos of the Calif shippers. The Baffert comment about how Calif shippers had been doing across the country was also long before the rains came. Not sure why this would be the case, but it has been happened enough times over a long enough period to convince some of us that it is the case, which why we used Wilko in the last leg of the pick4.