New Top to Win the Derby?

[NoCarolinaTony]

Michael D,

Im in Phoenix right now, but would like to discuss The Derby/Oaks with you off line if you got the time before Friday. I agree with your assessment someone is going to bounce of their effort. BR didn\'t beat anyone in his race, while Bandini beat a couple of good ones. If you were to grade the competion BR raced against a C+/B- feild while Bandini race against an A B+ feild. BR race was very impressive in terms of pure speed, but does competition excellerate his early speed and make him veneruable? Can he rate behind Spanish Rabbit? Tomorrow Post Position will be known.

Anyway, I\'ll email you.

NC Tony

[RICH]

I think the issue is that we have 4 horses with neg #\'s off big tops, in the same year. Those 4 are probably 65-75% to win the race. AA probably the best of those 4 to hang on, and GG at 20-1 or so a use at the price. Of course, the second tier horses HF,HL,NC probably make up 15-20%. There you go.

[DeathBredon]

I also got the feeling that the middle of the track was playing better on BG day than it had in the ealier days of the Keeneland meet.  Put all that together and I think throwing out Frankel from the exotics (even the win picture) would be a big mistake.