The Big Three

[spa]

Start the process....1.Afleet Alex 2.Wilco 3.Consolidator  It\'s your move !!!!!!

[jimbo66]

Spa,

I think your big three are all out of the Super Spa.  

Can\'t bet AA off the big number/short rest, bad jockey, super fast workouts intentionally orchestrated by Ritchey.  Respect the horse\'s ability, but never thought he would excel at 1 1/4 and can\'t change my mind now, at what I think will be very underlaid odds.  I think 4-1 is the over/under on AA and he has a shot to go off favored.

Consolidator.  2 of his 3 races this year were awful.  I think it is a good rule with Derby preps to forgive one bad three year old race.  (see Thunder Gulch).  But when 2 of the 3 are lousy and the third one is against the lousy 3 year olds in California this year (on a greasy track), I have to let that horse beat me.  I also think Consolidator will be underlaid odds, based on connections.  Not short, but underlaind.  I put his real odds at 30-1 and would use him at those odds, but I think he goess off between 12 and 15 to 1.

Wilco is a little more interesting.  If goes off at 35-1 or higher, I can\'t blame anybody for using him.  Even in a 20 horse field, it will be difficult to duplicate the losuy ride he got from Dettori.

The \"real big three\" are:

Bellamy Road
Noble Causeway
High Fly.

Granted, I am not going out on the limb you are with your top three (except AA).  My longshots in the Tri/Super are Flower Alley, Andromeda\'s Hero and Coined Silver.