Value Plays

[albany]

The ability to finish the last 1/8 mile of a 1 1/8 mile Derby prep in under 13 seconds is a good indication of a horse\'s ability to get a classic distance. In this year\'s Derby there are two horses who have accomplished the under 13 standard who will be overlooked in the wagering. The horses are Flower Alley and A. Hero. They will be dismissed at long odds because they ran behind Afleet Alex who freaked when he ran a last 1/8 mile in 11 4/5 in the Ark. Derby. These two looked like dead pieces compared to the winner, but they both finished strongly. They are both stoutly bred for the distance and are trained by top conditioners. They will both be in the 30-1 range and either or both could fit underneath in a big number exotic.  If one or both of these finish underneath Afleet Alex, the redboarders will note that it was easy, just look at the Ark. Derby!

[Wrongly]

http://www.drf.com/newsletter/davidowitz042703.pdf

Maybe the last 8th in the Ark is inflated!

[albany]

Perhaps the last 1/8 of the Ark was \"inflated.\" Does anyone have an opinion on this point? If presented with solid evidence, I would be willing to step away from my earlier stated position. Until such time as contrary evidence is presented, however, I will be standing my ground.



Post Edited (04-22-05 20:12)

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Albany, if its downhill, its marginally downhill for a short piece of ground. Cherokee Whatever ran one good race there. Alex is a bit more horse than Cherokee was. Alex could win this Derby. Whatever you do if you discount him, don\'t do it on Davidowitz\'s blurb. It pertained to a Peace Rules article. Funny Cide won that Derby at 13-1. Where was Davidowitz then or Peace Rules for that matter?

Smarty won this race last year running down hill slower if my memory serves. You saw Afleet circle and explode. How much was downhill influenced?

CtC

[albany]

Chuckles, thanks for your input. What is your opinion on Flower Alley and A. Hero? I like the way they finish and I am particularly fond of their breeding. Flower Alley has the Hyperion/Teddy cross through the presence of Mr. Prospector, Danzig and Sadler\'s Wells. He also has Sadler\'s Wells and Vaguely Noble in tail-female. A. Hero also has the Hyperion/Teddy cross through his sire F. Peg (Mr. Prospector and Danzig) and has a strong distaff pedigree featuring Roberto and Arts and Letters. The breeding for both these horses screams for a classic distance.



Post Edited (04-22-05 21:15)

[spa]

Chuckles, The stretch at Oaklawn is not downhill!!!!I\'ve stood on it, run on it, walked it and played golf on it for almost 50 years. I think Alex even ran into a slight headwind. At your peril, sell Afleet Alex short.

[p3991r]

Albany...

There appears to be another value horse that fits your profile, and has already ran fast enough to win....Greeley\'s Galaxy

IMO his last race was as impressive as Afleet Alex, and he figures to be triple his price,,,the price and the extra weeks rest certainly offsets the bounce possibility....

FWIW, I have visually disliked what I\'ve seen out of Sun King in his last two,,,but just got the numbers from the Derby download and I LOVE his line....I hate the decision these types of horse force,,,my eyes say \"NO\",,,,but my brain says \"HOW COULD YOU NOT\"......