Speed In the Derby

[albany]

When was the last time a pressed front runner won the Derby? War Emblem was free running on the lead; Go for Gin had it his own way when Holy Bull broke poorly; Spend A Buck was unpressed when Eternal Prince didn\'t break and Winning Colors won when Forty Niner rated. Will Bellamy Road be alone on the lead?



Post Edited (04-20-05 20:42)

[Ron G.]

Where does it say the Bellamy Road has to be on the lead in the Derby to win?

[albany]

Are you suggesting that he must change his established running style to win? Maybe he can, but I don\'t like taking short odds on a horse who hasn\'t proven such versatility.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

At this stage of the Game you dance with what brung ya. If Bellamy isn\'t on the lead its not gonna be because he doesnt want it. Nicky has Closers and Stalkers, he\'s not gonna mess with the chemistry and try a High Limit experiment with Bellamy now. I\'ll be surprised if Nicky doesn\'t put the Blinkers on and blow him out in .58 three days before the race.

Bellamy has a nice turn of foot, but hes not super fast. Its gonna be interesting when hes running hard and not in the lead Derby Day. This ain\'t Kansas anymore Dorothy and those aren\'t helpless Indian squaws and children down there in that coulee.

More Evidence?:

Lethargic work concerns McGaughey

Trainer Shug McGaughey remained on the fence regarding the Derby prospects of Survivalist after the Gotham winner and distant runner-up in the Wood Memorial worked a lethargic half-mile in 51.61 seconds Wednesday morning over Belmont Park\'s main track.

\"I wasn\'t looking for a whole lot, but that wasn\'t close to what I was looking for,\'\' McGaughey said.

http://www.drf.com/news/article/64294.html



Post Edited (04-20-05 21:18)

[albany]

Good post, Mr. Chuckles. The slow work is further evidence of Survivalist\'s current condition. He ran a 1:50 3/5 mile and a furlong on an ungodly fast track. He ran, I believe, a 1:35 3/5 mile in the Gotham on a decidedly slower track. He couldn\'t have been right if it took him 15 seconds on a faster track to do an additional 1/8. That\'s slow for a trotting horse. It also speaks volumes  about the horses behind him.

B. Disraeli, who has not to my knowledge contributed to this site, advised that \"(t)here are lies, there are damn lies and there are statistics.\" Simply stated, numbers, which are often used to imply scientific objectivity, can be deceiving. I would humbly suggest that we put our faith in figs when that faith does no injury to logic.

[jimbo66]

Yeah,

Zito is going to make an equipment change on a horse that has won his two starts by 32 lengths this year.  

Brilliant.

[jbelfior]

The jock did not like his chances BEFORE the Wood due to his poor pull-up after the Gotham. Says he was exhausted 2 steps past the wire.

Makes you wonder about the nags that ran behind SURVIVALIST, let alone BELLAMY ROAD.


Good Luck,
Joe B.