Question for JB and Read on Bellamy Road

jimbo,

I agree with you completely. I hope that doesn\'t scare you. :-)

CH

[NoCarolinaTony]

I forgot to Include Rocky in my theoretical example. He does have good early speed. My only point is that PP will matter for some horses in this race. And to make any decision now in my opinion would be premature until the PP draw is out. Right Now BR is the Best Fig Horse going in, a potential bounce candidate as will AA  and Bandini (a distant cousin by the way), off of there last one. BR beat second rate horses so I am not sure he was taxed for supreme effort and rather did it with natural ability. He looks to me to be best of the speed or best horse anyway.

My Point is that is you use Greater Good Ark Race as an example, and we have folks making excuses for his performance due to the fact he couldn\'t clear from PP10 and got used early to gain position and hung out --what happens in the derby with PP18-20 should AA or BR or RH or HF or HL get that fun post. Those collective horses have a got a 1 in 5 chance to get pp 20 and individually have a 15% chance to get 18-20.

I think the ground lost and early use of energy will be important in handicapping this particular race.

NC Tony

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

classhandicapper wrote:

> TGJB,
>
> Wth the older horses that\'s certainly the case.
>
> However, I think with guys like Frankel and Pletcher, when they
> are dealing with a lightly raced young horse, \"the probability\"
> that the horse will move forward is much higher than with
> anyone else

Well, lets see. Its all here. We don\'t have to speculate (The first number is 2YO top):

Pletcher:

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2005/derby_history/derby_charts/trainers/508.html

2004 Pollards Vision 4 / 7 - 2.1 - 2.1 -1.2 -17
2004 Limehouse 6 / 1 - 3 - 3 - 3

2002 Wild Horses 19 / 11 - 8 - 6 - 6 - 16

2001 Balto Star 16 / 11 - 11 - 3 - 0 - 0 - 16
2001 Invisible Ink 11 / 6 - 1 - 5 - 5 - 1

2000 Impeachment 7 / 11 - 13 - 13 - 7 - 6 - 5

2000 More Than Ready 4 / 3 - 6 - 3 - 6

2000 Graeme Hall Sheet missing from database

2000 Trippi 10 - 4 - 6 - 4 - 10

The only exceptions I can see to the Pletcher \"running hard by second race\" format is Balto Star and Maybe Impeachment. Impeachment retired with a maiden win and was probably running pre additives if I\'m not mistaken. Balto was one of Pletcher\'s better overall horses in my opinion but he developed quickly and bounced in the Derby. I\'m not sure he ever exceeded the Zeds.

And now Bandini who apparently moved forward large in this last race. Larger than any of his previous Derby entries as a matter of fact.

Frankel:

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2005/derby_history/derby_charts/trainers/218.html

2004 Master David 2 / 6 - 6 - 4 - 6

2003 Empire Maker 6 / 6 - 0 - 0 - 0

2003 Peace Rules -7 / 0 - 0 - 2

2002 Medaglia d\'Oro 9 / 7 - 2 - 2 - 2

2000 Aptitude -8 / 9 - 7 - 5 - 3

1990 Burnt Hills No Data Base

1990 Pendleton Ridge No Data Base

Some degree of skepticism is in order on Aptitude. At the time, Frankel was doing it the old fashioned way. Hes got a new approach now.

Well, for Frankel the running by the second race of the 3 yr old season is even more pronounced. TGJB obviously knows his figure database.

CH you\'re only defensible positions are that you were referring to Pletcher and Frankels Non Triple Crown horses or you were referring to a move up probability in the 1st or 2nd race of their 3YO season.

NC Tony.....GG had a legitimate excuse, hes a closer. If hes anywhere near the pace in the Derby hes a head case again. Your point is getting hung out and I understand it. 10 furlongs is long way under pressure unless your Seattle Slew.



Post Edited (04-20-05 18:50)

CTC,

>CH you\'re only defensible positions are that you were referring to Pletcher and Frankels Non Triple Crown horses or you were referring to a move up probability in the 1st or 2nd race of their 3YO season.<

I am referring to general patterns among lightly raced high quality horses that tend to develop over a season.

First off, I don\'t use figures alone to come to conclusions like this when it comes to evaluating horses. So I certainly wouldn\'t use just figures to evaluate trainers either. They are helpful. But by now you know I think there\'s a lot more to evaluating performance than just the figure.

The best trainer handicapper I know cuts out the PPs of all the horses that a trainer has in his barn. He studies them to look for patterns.

However he also makes subjective judgements related to trips, distance, pace etc... when making evaluations. He\'s also sharp enough to realize that trainers have seasons where weather and good/bad fortune can change the patterns on a temporary basis.

I don\'t go so far as to cut out all the PPs and keep them in folders. Nor am I as good at evaluating trainer patterns as he is. However, since I focus on stakes races I look closely at all the PPs of the best horses trained by the major trainers (enhanced with my subjective views about pace, bias, trip, distance etc..).

If Pletcher or Frankel has a lightly raced high quality horse with similar figures to another contender, all else being equal, I\'ll take their horse every day of every week and that includes Bandini and Flower Ally.



Post Edited (04-21-05 09:56)