Blue Grass

[colt]

I wish I could go into further details as to how I reached my decision on this race, but the weekend is here and it's time to bet and collect.  Having said that, Mr. Sword is the pick here - followed by High Limit, Consolidator, and Sun King.  High Limit is clearly the one to beat.  The other 3 are of no consequence.

TGAB,

If one wanted to try to estimate whether Fusaich Pagasus was going to sire early or late bloomers would it be better to look at his career, the career of his sire, very early results, other...

If I recall, FP did make slow and steady progress throughout in his limited career.

[TGAB]

We view early developers as horses that run fast early and don\'t develop much as they age. By much I mean a TGI improvement less than the 7 points the breed on average develops from 2 through 5 plus.

It\'s still too early to categorize Fusaichi Pegasus since his 2nd crop of 2yos are coming out this year. Obviously he\'s getting some very fast 2yos which would seem to indicate that he\'ll pass along traits similar to his sire Mr. Prospector who got early developing types in general.

Obviously the mares Fusaichi Pegasus mates with also play a role, and since a season with him costs $150K per pop, breeders\' will want a return pretty quick.

I suppose early results is the tentative answer I have to answer your question but ultimately, obviously, time will tell.



Post Edited (04-15-05 18:18)

[big18741]

Consolidator is fast,but not sprinter fast.He is clearly a horse that wants to get into a comfortable cruising gear.He needs two turns not 7f or less.

His fastest sprints are 6 and 6.5

His first time going long he jumped up to a 3.5

Three weeks later at Lone Star he raced with a quarter crack,was bumped at the start,bumped again in the stretch and still managed to run a 5.5 which wasn\'t bad considering.

San Felipe a 1.

His three fastest races were all at two turns.Throw out his sprints and his sheet looks a lot better.


As for the Bluegrass:

Mr Sword has a nice turn of foot,but he doesn\'t sustain it so Bailey will have to wait as long as possible before he moves on him.I\'m using him underneath HL and Consolidator in tris.

CA missed some time because of foot problems.Even though he won the Holy Bull-he got an easy trip and came home really slow.High Fly and KC boy were staggering at the end of that race.I don\'t think CA wants the distance,but he could get another easy trip sucking around on the rail and hang in for third.

Spanish Chestnut is a real dog,and if either Consolidator or HL is lapped onto him he\'ll check out of the race early.

Consolidator goes off 3rd or maybe 4th choice(I sense Bandini getting bet)-has won over the track,is working great,hasn\'t missed any time all spring,and is co fastest going two turns.I have him running another 1 or better.
Lukas won\'t back off him now that he\'s getting good.

Frankel doesn\'t prep horses in million dollar races,and he won\'t screw around with his running style.He\'s going right up to engage SC unless Consolidator beats him to the punch.My guess is HL is quicker out of the gate and Consolidator will sit a length or two behind and Bejarano will try to ease him in behind or outside HL.Shouldn\'t be a problem unless JR decides to put Bandini up 3 wide early.

Sun King might not have been tuned up for the TB Derby,but Prado was working him over pretty good in the stretch of that race to pull away from some real dogs.He\'s only had a couple of two turn races,and neither has been very impressive.In both he was inside horses on the rail and seemed to struggle in the stretch.Maybe he doesn\'t want distance or maybe he wants to be outside of horses,but
either way I\'m getting rid of him at a short price.

Bandini isn\'t as fast as the 4 and 5 and has a bad post.He needs to jump up and work out a trip.A lot to ask for.

I\'m with TGJB on this one.An HL/Consolidator exacta probably pays 20.00 The other way high 20\'s maybe 30.Get Bandini and Sun King off the board and tris with Mr Sword and Ca in 3rd might come back ok.