White Mercedes wins two... again! (yawn)

[Real Class]

classhandicapper wrote:

> HP and TGJB,
>
> For the record, I think HP did a great job on the race and I
> agree that you should be looking for improving horses etc...
>
> As everyone knows, I supplement the figures with subjective
> views on performace that sometimes cause me to come to
> different conclusions about where a horse has actually been and
> therefore where he is going next.

As everyone knows, you said you would leave this board. I am so sick of your ridiculous ravings without ever taking a solid position.

You\'re just like Bill Walton analyzing a basketball game. First of all he never shuts up for a mooment. Second of all he\'ll go on and on and on about how bad a particular player is doing during a game and how he\'s a weak spot to his team, but when that player does one good thing he\'ll chime in with \"That\'s how important so and so is to his team. I told you he\'s the key to their winning.\"

Go away CH! Go away! Take Bill Walton with you.

Real Class,

I\'ll leave if Jerry asks me or when I feel like it.

>As everyone knows, you said you would leave this board. I am so sick of your ridiculous ravings without ever taking a solid position.<

What position do you want?

I bet Texcess to win and boxed him in exactas with the winner and 3rd place horse. I said that earlier in the day. Prior to the race I said it was a \"must bet\" race because the 2 chalks were very weak.

[HP]

Class,

I re-read your original post.  It\'s interesting.  I didn\'t see the races so I\'ll have to trust your observations....but I will say that I think your observations are totally reflected on the horse\'s TG sheet.

The races that you describe sound like efforts.  On the sheet it looks like the horse had gotten to a certain point and consistently delivered the goods.  Four fives in a row for a 2-3yo is pretty impressive to me.  However, they look (based on your observations as well!) like EFFORTS, where the horse is running pretty hard.  

After four in a row I ask myself - will he get better today?  

Your position seems to be - he\'s demonstrated that he\'s better than these in his last few races.

My position is - he\'s run hard four straight (and you may be right that he\'s better than he looks! -- on his best day) so as a result of these efforts, TODAY he\'s more likely to poop out than move forward.

Running strong in those four straight is a NEGATIVE for me in the Lane\'s End (based on wear and tear on a young horse).  I agree with what you say about how good those races were -- but how do you factor in the wear and tear of Texcess running hard enough to demonstrate his pace superiority in those four straight races?  

HP

HP,

IMO the full value of the Delta race wasn\'t reflected in the TG speed figure (assuming you make pace figure adjustments).
If pacefigures was still available, I could show you that. That\'s the race that Closing Argument came out of to run a much improved figure. Tex\'s trip was even tougher there. It was a huge pace figure. In Beyer terms, I\'m sure pacefigures would have given Tex a performance figure of over 100.

TG captured the ground loss of the San Rafael on the first turn (not built into the Beyer), but IMO, when a horse is working hard wide on the first turn to stay with the early leaders in an honest/fast pace, it almost always takes more out of them than the just the ground loss.

I didn\'t see a pace figre for the BM race and it wasn\'t easy to estimate one, but visually it looked like he was used hard putting away the other dueler and held OK.

So I think he ran 3 races that were superior to what they looked based on rawer speed figures. I also liked the workout coming into the race.

I can\'t argue with you if you believe that running 3-4 tough races in a row is a negative. I didn\'t think it was as likely for Tex to move forward as some of the other more lightly raced horses, but I didn\'t see a debacle either.

Other than our personal views, I don\'t think the race proved a darn thing. He was so dreadful I don\'t think the race proved anything about my analysis of his prior performances. Perhaps we will learn more about his ability later on a fast track if he\'s not done.



Post Edited (03-29-05 09:41)

[jimbo66]

As long as we are asking people to \"go away\", how about we stop with the constant redboarding about White Mercedes.  CH picks horses and has opinions on the races, based on his theories.  His theories are different than many on this board and at times it appears inconsistent (but it is hard to debate via these types of threads and always be clear).

But this constant White Mercedes stuff is just crap.  A few weeks I CtC posts several comments before the LA Derby about his thoughts and NEVER says a word about Vicarage and is NEGATIVE about High Limit.  Then the race happens and afterwards he says the \"results were not unforeseeable and he cashed on the exacta but wasn\'t happy about it because of drugs\".  Chuckles, when others commented negatively about your claims in picking all those derby winners in the past 15 years, I believed you and took you at your word (not that it matters).  But after watching your Kerry like \"flip flop\" on this race, I can see why others doubt your claims on the Derby.

Then this week we get John T Chance posting AFTER the race, how easy the 10-1 shot was to have and the $591 double.  Bull$#@%.  Post before the race and then claim victory.  Redboard your claims afterwards is stupid and pointless.  Are you really worried that your opinion carries so much weight on this board that posting before the race will deflate the odds you will get?  

Talking about the drug problem is one thing, but these kinds of redboarding, tied to drug talk is just pointless.

[razzle]

John T Chance/DRex?

JTC wrote:
\"For weeks now, after the fact, I\'ve tried to contribute the idea that the big boys [backed by White Mercedes] win the big races. I apologise for trying to hammer that idea home weekend after weekend - as if I have a clue.\"

Just a note to say how much I\'ve enjoyed your posts about the now infamous White Mercedes over the past few months. I like the \"tongue-in-cheek\" humor you attach to it,too, and appreciated the story ctc added about the dark evening- maybe worth a reprint...?

No apology warranted here... Keep \'em comin\'!  raz

[JohnTChance]

Razzle: Thanks for the preceding post. You\'re on my good list... and that\'s a good list to be on.

Jimbo66: My opinion carries no weight. I suggest you ignore me and any knuckleheads you don\'t approve of. My initial post about White Mercedes was done in an innocent, playful way. Keeping score wasn\'t the point. It wasn\'t meant so much as a \"redboard,\" as it was a blind tout FOR FORTHCOMING RACES! The same [to quote jimbo66] \"Bull$#@%\" happens week after week! If you ignore them, or are too blind or stupid to see it, be prepared to cry like a child again when the point is made to your displeasure in the future.

JohnTChance

[beyerguy]

JohnT,

I think the point is, you don\'t need to know who the vet is to come up with these horses as a bettor.  I\'m mean, its not like Roses in May didn\'t have other merits, or either of this weeks other winners you mention for that matter.

Do they drug test in the desert?  I would think its tougher than here, but I could be wrong.