GALLOPING GROCER & AQU on SAT.

jbelfior · March 21, 2005, 04:41:36 AM

Anyone have any comments on the outside paths at Aqueduct on Saturday??

I only saw 3 races there including the 2 stakes and it appeared that the outside paths were much better than the inside going one turn. (perhaps this moved up PAVO or perhaps Ms. Pedersen is up to her old tricks again).

I\'m thinking that if this is the case, GG ran a terrific race and could be a strong play in the Wood.

Good Luck,
Joe B.

richiebee · March 21, 2005, 05:18:43 AM

Joe B:

I absolutely agree about the inside paths. I am not a GG or Dom Schettino fan, and think GG has nothing left in the tank after 2 gut wrenching races.

But PLEASE PLEASE go back and watch the race Byanosejoe ran. He was stuck on the rail until the top of the stretch, finally got off the rail, only to have to alter course and drop back to the rail for the last 1/8 mile. This is not an animal I bet, but just happened to notice was running like mad at the end. (I bet Naughty New Yorker, and got the kind of ride from Samyn that Mary Jo Kopechne got at Chappaquidick). I make Byanose the winner of the Withers or the Derby Trial if he goes in either race(detention barn or no detention barn).

jbelfior · March 21, 2005, 06:49:14 AM

richiebee---

I will go back and watch, however I do recall the trouble the 4 horse got into. Let\'s hope they keep him going 1 turn.

Samyn needs to retire. He butchered NNY ( i needed him for the exacta)and then compounded his ineptness by claiming foul on the wrong horse.

I think TGJB may be onto something when he suggests NNY may end up being the next EVENING ATTIRE. Perhaps he ends up being your 2006 Jockey Club Gold Cup winner.

Good Luck,
Joe B.

ninefingers · March 21, 2005, 06:54:50 AM

Good insight . . . but . . . being that the horse has lost at 1-2 and 6/5 against the same horses . . . being conditioned by a 1 for 45 trainer . . . being that Sort it Out ran up the track in last . . . being that the Wood Memorial will probably have few horses shipping in that can run . . . maybe finding another horse on the card that bucked the possible bias?

jbelfior · March 21, 2005, 07:19:11 AM

ninefingers--

good point. I may be making too many excuses for GG. First was off the layoff and pace was too hot...second was after a foot problem where some training was missed and he was the survivor of a hot pace on the inside which may not have been the best place to be.

Perhaps more comfortable pace scenario over the track and distance where he ran his best # may make him a value play.

But I agree with the negatives you bring up...trainer, 2 losses to the same group with others lurking and shipping in...not to mention Luzzi on top and the fact that he probaly has not improved over his Remsen # as a 3yo although I do not know TGJB\'s # for him in the Gotham ( I\'m assuming it was not a paired or new top).

Good Luck,
joe B.

twoshoes · March 21, 2005, 07:29:52 AM

Joe B -

I agree with you that the inside was indeed deeper at Aqueduct on Saturday. I initially put it at about a 2 on a scale of 3 with 3 being Death Valley, moderately biased. Of course I won\'t be able to determine how accurate that is until soem of these horses start running back but I\'ll give any that spent any significant time down on the rail the benefit of the doubt in their next start. Byanosejoe was definitely up against it most of the trip. Galloping Grocer, however, I caught 4332 with benefit of the head on, only nearing the inside in the last 1/8 mile and even then Joe was inide him.

Good luck,

Mark

March 21, 2005, 07:30:17 AM

I think deep closers like NNY tend to disappoint on a regular basis. Even if their figures put them right in the thick of it, they generally underperform relative to those figures and their odds. They tend to find a way to get into the thick of it at the end without actually winning.

I rarely play a deep closer unless I am almost certain the pace will be hot enough to allow them to only have to pick up dead horses through the stretch. (which is rare).

I just play other contenders and if one of those deep closers happens to get a good trip and beat me, so be it. Most of the time I have the best of it.

NoCarolinaTony · March 21, 2005, 07:39:35 AM

I think Jean Luc Samyn should retire. His best days are behind him.

miff · March 21, 2005, 07:53:45 AM

RE Aqueduct Bias 3/19

Several horses raced along the inside and ran very well.

WAMP
CAT DANCER
WING MAN(inside out move)
FORTUNATE STORM
OUR SUMMER STORM

I\'m a bias obsever too and will also have to see these horses run back before I can get a strong handle on the surface for 3/19.

Re GG. I saw him stalk off a 67-1 and an 80-1 shot dueling( on a somewhat GLIB surface) and get run over in a 26.1 last quarter.I thought he stunk the joint up.That\'s what makes this game great, differing opinions with no one an absolute authority.

richiebee · March 21, 2005, 08:03:30 AM

Class:
Point well taken, but NNY and the winner were on even terms at the 1/4 pole. Mig found a way to win, and Samyn looked like the Titanic looking for an iceberg.

twoshoes · March 21, 2005, 08:14:54 AM

Miff -

Agree with your assessment of GG and the horses you mentioned that ran well inside. I thought some of them ran very well indeed under the circumstances. Or, I may be putting too much emphasis on how deep things were down there. We\'ll see when they come back.

TGJB · March 21, 2005, 09:14:26 AM

Miff-- just want to say that that is my kind of post. You did your homework, have a working hypothesis, and will check against future results.

By the way guys, I boxed 3 in the race, and the Dutrow horse was one. It did NOT look to me like he was doing much running the last eighth, especially considering how slow they were going-- the rail could have been a factor (haven\'t done the day yet), maybe he didn\'t want to go through the hole (looked pretty wide on the head-on), but I didn\'t see what you guys saw.