FG: Feb 12

[Michael D.]

i was going to handicap all of the stks races, but i took a quick look and i don\'t think i can beat the favorites.

R7: summerly looks like the real deal. asmussen usually has them cranked for these early preps. enduring can improve a lot here, but the odds won\'t be generous, and the 122 lbs won\'t help.

R8: four or five of these could win this. if the 2 scratches to run in the other stks, wanderin boy might get the perfect trip and be tough at 113 lbs. pollard\'s vision might be ready to go off the layoff, tough to leave him out.

R9: harlington is a huge horse, looks like unbridled to me. not sure if he will like the tight turns, and post 10 hurts, but leave him out? i can\'t, like the barn and jock too much. have to just watch it. i have bet iced out in his last two (close second both times at 10-1). i guess he could come running late again. rush bay looks like a nice horse to me. i bet him last out, and he ran a decent second at 5-1. post 11 is a killer.

i got the #\'s for R6 just to see what parker run looks like. he looks a bit slow, but i might take a shot anyway at ml of 10-1. first time out he ran a very nice \"7\" going 5 1/2 on turf, then they stretched him out for his next five races. cut back to 5 1/2 on dec 7 and matched his first out #, and improved last while getting caught behind the bunch on the turn. rider switch to JR, nice inside post, and 114 lbs... needs to jump another few points, but as a lightly raced four year old, i guess he could. key at decent odds.



Post Edited (02-12-05 09:46)

[Michael D.]

no money betting there, but summerly will run 26 miles. just look at her pedigree. look at the time of the race also - four lengths faster than the boys, and only three lengths slower than the handicap horses (and meche was +4 lbs).

harlington is too big for that track. he probably won\'t take the turns at CD either. i will bet him if he runs in the Fla Derby though. scipion ran well to pick up the pieces, and stevens helped. not sure about him though.

wanderin boy - loose on the lead at 113 lbs; the others had no chance. nice exacta.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Yeah, I\'m kicking myself on Wandering Boy. Mental error. He was the bet and I went the wrong way, looking to beat Pollard. I misjudged 3 pace scenarios today and that did me in. Didn\'t put enough time into the races.

Harlington had too much to do. Outside like that this early in his career was a very tough road. Front that post he\'d of been much better off going 10 marks today. He hadn\'t demonstrated a real turn of foot or the ability to relax, slide in and unleash a run. I think he ran very credibly....and I think he was beaten only 3 lengths.

[Michael D.]

ctc,
the race collapsed. harlington looked like he was closing well, but he wasn\'t. he had a very rough time of it around the second turn. he bumped hard with the dying mullin\'s speedball, and it was over. he doesn\'t have a quick turn of foot, and he will pay for that each time he doesn\'t get his trip. i hope they point towards the GP and Bel races. i think he will excel at those tracks..... one of the other serena\'s song horses exploded at SA, paid $18!! i lost interest though when i saw the conditions out there.

[Michael D.]

i wonder what summerly will go off at in the futures betting? i read somewhere that they picked her out of the sale based on some scientific breathing analysis. too bad you couldn\'t get her locked in before that race.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I guess you mean an Oaks Future?

She looked good. I keyed her, I just got chalky greedy. I had the 15-1, but in third....lol The dang one threw a fit at the gate and I never like that.

I had a big number on Harlington, I just didn\'t see him able to return to it in the conditions. I like him now. I saw some heart and/or ability. He didn\'t overcome it to win, but from there it was a tough row to hoe. I\'m eager to see what TGraph scored him comin into the race. Especially, how they scored Scipion, who I really thought would be uncompetitive without a major move forward.

Remember Funny Cides Holy Bull?...He broke from outside at 8.5 marks at the old Hallandale and got strung and got beat. Beat to a point where he got discounted. That race looked very much like this Risen Star to me. I think Funny had the Sleepy Hollow under his belt though. Harlington gets points on that race in my book.



Post Edited (02-12-05 19:56)

[Michael D.]

to me, he gets a pass. i don\'t like him negotiating tight turns in a twenty horse field however.

[Michael D.]

by pass, i mean ignore the race, not throw out



Post Edited (02-12-05 20:27)

[Campbreeze]

\"harlington is too big for that track.\"

Risen Star was a big, long-striding horse, and he did not have trouble winning races at the Fairgrounds.  What he didn\'t try to do, however, was go 4-wide around the turns and still win, which is where I think I recall seeing Harlington.  I\'m not sure, however, as I was trying to keep Storm Surge in front to cash the Pick 4 (Rush Bay being nowhere in sight, my other play).

Regards, Paul

[Kasept]

What\'s interesting about what happened Sat. is that Harlington became the third hopeful in two weeks to have identical wide trips that immediately brought the naysayers out in droves..

Harlington.. High Fly.. Giacomo..

All three had little chance in their respective outings without being at peak form and hard-used. And what trainer that\'s pointing for the first Sat. in May is going to want to run a \"Second of June\" race in February? FG is a quirky joint to visit. It was Harlington\'s third career start, first ship. I\'m not bothered by the outcome as I\'m sure Pletcher isn\'t. It looked like a good learning experience and he never stopped trying.

As to the discussion of Funny Cide above, he encountered a variety of problems in that Holy Bull. It was his first ship; first route; first graded stake; first race v. open company; first off a layoff... He was in the 13 hole and smacked the gate coming out, rushed up to track the leaders while wide all the way, AND STILL FINISHED FIFTH!

On top of everything else, Smullen and Barclay discovered after the race that he STILL was suffering from the pesky lung infection that had been plaguing him for months. And they had yet to discover his need for a kinder bit.. They gave him a second layoff leading up to the LA Derby, but he was working up a storm at deep Palm Meadows in the meantime.

(See my Derby Trail piece, \"A Derby Contender on the Cide,\" tabbing him as a Classic contender from two years ago: http://sports.groups.yahoo.com/group/DerbyTrail/message/15)

And if we\'re talking about failures in Jan-Feb preps, recall that War Emblem was a disinterested 6th in the Risen Star in \'02; Charismatic a 5th of 5 in the Santa Catalina in \'99 and Real Quiet a dead last 8th in the GG Derby as the even money favorite...

[fasteddie]

I\'m still high on Harlington, but he has a lot to prove; DRF reports High Fly is now in Zito\'s barn....very interesting!

My Derby and Oaks plays were Bandini, Harlington, High Fly, Sun King, and Pussycat Doll.

[Michael D.]

paul,
when harlington started to make his move on the turn, he bumped hard with mullin\'s horse, and lost momentum. i thought he might have trouble with the turns, and he did. i just think he will improve a lot when he runs next at GP (if he does). risen star was a brilliant race horse, he would have beaten most of the three year olds over any track that year.

kasept,
where are the naysayers? the only thing i hear are wise guys telling me how they still like high fly and harlington (i still like them both too). closing argument, the horse that beat high fly by two lengths last out, is 50-1 is the futures pool, high fly is 25-1! harlington is 19-1, making him one of the top four or five choices. i\'m not sure if i read your post correctly, but i think you have it backwards..... as for giacomo, the odds of him running a strong 10f in may are nil.



Post Edited (02-14-05 10:16)

If Harlington was trained by just about anyone other than Pletcher, I\'d be thrilled to bet against him for the rest of the year. Pletcher is great at developing young lightly raced horses. So he will probably continue to improve.

Other than that, Harlington\'s claim to fame is 2 wins on muddy tracks against nothing. One wasn\'t fast and IMO the other was highly suspect.  

This is the not the profile of a horse I would want at a short price.