Holy Bull

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Ok, Beyer

I stand corrected. Not sure what you have there but they do indicate a hotter pace effort last than I was aware of. DeD is not a track I watch closely.

Congrats.

If I had your insight, I think I\'d have taken the whole race down.

Can you say what you have there?

[Michael D.]

beyer,
congrats if you had CA, but HF ran faster than the CA race before, ran about two lengths faster than CA on saturday, and will run faster than CA the next time they run. the trip from post eight was a killer for HF over that oval; they didn\'t have the jock they needed to overcome that handicap.

[beyerguy]

Sure I can say, I create an overall race rating based on the horse\'s pace and speed figure, his position at the first call in relation to the size of the field, weight carried and a maturity adjustment (that is, in May, those figures will be bigger than they are now.)  I don\'t account for wide trips, which is why I like to use T-Graph numbers as well.

[beyerguy]

Michael,

No doubt I think HF ran the better race on Saturday, but from a betting standpoint, I also  suspected he would lose a lot of ground and had no edge in the figures, so why bet 3-5?  If they race again from similar posts at similar prices, I\'d bet CA again.

When you say a horse ran faster, I guess it depends what numbers you are looking at, but in any case, they were close enough that 3-5 was a horrible underlay.

[Michael D.]

beyer,
i\'m not talking about trip handicapping here. congrats to anyone who had CA at 4-1 against a faster horse based on the post and jocks. i did not have that, and i think anybody who cashed on the race should be congratulated for fine handicapping. HF simply ran the 9f faster though, and if they exchange post draws next time, CA will be very hard pressed to beat HF.

[Michael D.]

but beyer, i enjoy pace handicapping discussions. i believe pace plays an important role in this game. in fact, the reason why i did not try to beat HF was because i gave the race a 3.0 pace rating going in (out of 10.0). if i were correct, there would have been less speed up front, HF would have gotten a much better trip, and he would have won. i misjudged the pace and did not cash (didn\'t bet it).

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

michael he was 8-1 and the trip High Fly got wasn\'t unforeseeable. Its gonna be interesting. Head to Heads for the FOY?

[Michael D.]

don\'t know where i got 4-1. i passed, wasn\'t even paying attention until they loaded. i hope they pass on the FOY. HF seems like the type of horse that runs too fast for his own good. rest him up, please!!