Donn Handicap

Solid Grade I for this time of year.

The key of course is how sharp Roses In May and Saint Liam return.

Normally, I don\'t like horses returning off a layoff of more than 60 days in a Grade I race. That\'s especially true early in the year. Both of these horses could have huge campaigns ahead of them. Typically, a trainer wouldn\'t want a horse like this peaking in February. :-)

However, they really are the only legit Grade I horses in the race. Plus there isn\'t much speed to press them and demand 100% fitness.  

Eddington and Pies Prospect are newly turned 4 year olds that showed some potential last year. Either could develop further this year. They both come off solid victories. If the top two are off their game a bit, either could sneak a Grade I on to their resumes.

Seek Gold has one good race, but has been out for awhile also. I consider him a notch below the second string. The best thing he has going for him is that he\'s trained by Zito and doesn\'t figure to win. :-)

Back to the stars....

I think Roses In May has run big races a little more consistently than St Liam (whose only really spectacular race came when he battled Ghostzapper so gamely). RIM\'s BC and Whitney were both terrific. His overall record is more impressive.

On the flip side SL has already run very well off a layoff against a top horse and has been almost as impressive since Dutrow took over.

It\'s a tough race to bet.

I can\'t see betting on either of the top two because they will both be very short odds and you don\'t know how much horse you are getting at this stage.  

Between Pies P and Eddington, (if you put a gun to my head), I might take Eddington at a big price (if you can get it) because he was clearly prepped for this. IMO his overall record looks as though he has more potential for improvment. He has been decent against the best all along.



Post Edited (02-04-05 16:50)

[Saddlecloth]

Just to note I guess hennig switched vets to Allday.  Has anyone else heard this?

[Michael D.]

tough call on odds, but maybe:

RIM: even
SL: 5-2
Eddi: 4-1 (lower if it confirmed that allday is the vet)
PP: would have been long odds, but you get the 1a and bailey, and therefore lower odds. if you like PP, but think SG is too slow, you can not bet the race, as you will not get the value on PP you deserve.

too tough for me, pass.

[TGJB]

Alan is putting the finishing touches on ROTW (Strub), but I just did the analysis for Gulfstream, and it is quite the card in terms of quality of young horses. There are some interesting betting races, although the question of testing and the surprising number of Pletcher horses coming back on long or short rest raise the variability level.

Interesting possible news about Allday, and I don\'t think SL will go off that long-- my guess would be close second choice, maybe 8/5. In fact, 5/2 would make me think he won\'t fire, with that crew.

[Michael D.]

TGJB,
i agree. in terms of quality and quantity, this one of the best cards of young three year olds i have ever seen. i hope to post on a few races tomorrow.

Interesting that Eddington opened up shorter than St Liam and is still relatively close in odds to him. I thought the odds on Eddington would be similar to the entry of Pies Prospect and Seek Gold.

Going to pass, but I am really surprised the entry is this much longer than Eddington.

If for some chance both the favorites are a little short - which is possible - either could win.



Post Edited (02-05-05 16:54)

Nothing special.  

Looks like Dutrow had St. Liam more wound up than RIM. He drew first blood, but I think bringing RIM back a little short is the better move if you are looking for an Eclipse award. There\'s a long season of Grade I races ahead and I don\'t think peaking on Feb 5 is such a good idea. :-)

[Michael D.]

i was going to take a shot on eddi, but 3-1 was just too low. the entry was 8-1 when they started loading, 5-1 (5.9-1 to be exact) when the gates opened. nice late chunk of money. saint liam is a freak. i guess you could have made a case for him at 8-5. i liked him better than RIM, but i couldn\'t bet him to win at that price.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

It was the battle of the Alldays and Eddington was far too low. That was silly. I passed.