rotw

[spa]

It looks like a classic....small field...big pay day!!!!!!!!!

[Florida Phil]

I do not see a big pay day with this race.  In fact, it is obvious Storm Surge looks like a bounce and I believe Kansas City Boy will be the favorite here, and clearly looks like the best horse in the race.  No big pay day no matter how you play behind, as Biloxi Palace looks solid on the ticket.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I\'m in line with Phil.

Essentially, you have three horses that look to make this race. And one that with Asmussen and Bailey you have to figure could move up large. However even then you have a weight spotting issue.

Of those that figure on figs, one just popped maiden on an off surface. This guy ran with Better than Bonds and beat a horse named Going Wild that doesn\'t look all that bad. That race was September. Can you hope to get maybe 7-2 in a six horse field and is that a good 7-2?

Biloxi stopped like he pulled a hammy last. I mean the brakes were squealing the tires smoking....he was fish tailin. Albarado jumps a Seattle Slew with that breeding? I missed the breeding at first but I\'m sure the people surrounding Robbie know. What you gonna take 5-2 maybe 3-1?  Are those good odds?

Storm Surge is pegged as sprinty and ouchy. I\'m having trouble really ascertaining the ouchy. He has run on front bandages for some time. I look at the couple month freshing after the very disappointing grade I Hopeful as a positive. He\'s better than he was when the Hopeful was run and I\'m not so sure the track condition agreed with him that day. The layoff doesn\'t look so long as to indicate a problem as evidenced by the handy win over Spanish Chestnut on B.C. day. I like the looks of that race.  Thereafter he ran after a pretty good horse in Greater Good. He bumped some, tried to go between and failed at two turns. It was a four point X. Now he comes back with a solid six marks under his belt. They say too solid and he is spotting all the weight. It may be a tough spot, but is it tougher than the spots the others are in? Thats an odds question.

I may have the odds wrong. I may not be weighing Asmussens horse the way the crowd is going to weigh him, but I can\'t see much of a reason to take a chance on this race. I like to see a horse that gives me the good feeling and I don\'t see him here. Actual Odds could change that.

CtC

[spa]

The bet 2/4/3/1....no favorite and no Bailey

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I\'ll give you this Spa. Even if you dont cash that bet, it will pay buku bucks when one like it comes in. Bold, but renumerative.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

well ya never know and its too early to say with certainty, but i don\'t think we saw any Derby horses in the Lecomte. This 2-1 popping maiden into stake race thing is somewhat ridiculous. I know it was a three, but it was a muddy track out in front maiden three. One thing I\'m fairly certain of but couldn\'t back at even money and giving weight is that Storm Surge does not want to go up inside of horses. He\'s much happier circling them and from that post he had his way.

On the other hand the San Rafael that was a value race and I think the paying horses have a future, at least for the time being.



Post Edited (01-15-05 18:32)