Hals Hope Autopsy

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I won\'t call it a post mortem because no money died on the affair.

We\'ll have to see what number TGraph assigns. When I say \"we\'ll have to see\" that probably means you guys will have to see, My plan is to purchase individual 3 yr old races. I tend to think the race was a little better than I originally thought. I\'ll defer to Tgraph, especially since i don\'t know this track yet, but the fractions looked legitimate and I thought more of the race after I analyzed the third place horse. I\'m embarrassed to say I overlooked the third place horse. I don\'t do it often, but I glanced at his p.p.s and i skipped over him. He\'d come off the turf for his last three in Argentina and won them all. One at 10 marks in 2 minutes flat. He\'d taken a jog in his first u.s. effort but finished well. I missed the surface switch and I missed that the races were at the Hipodromo. That wasn\'t indicated on the figures i have. I respect that surface there. Its Argentinas NYRA track. Anyway, you have to listen to the little bird of doubt that sings in your ear sometimes and I was fortunate I didnt\' bet the race for a number of reasons. Confusion, Dislike of Frankel and Omission.

CtC



Post Edited (01-09-05 09:32)

[jimbo66]

CtC,

Without calculating any figures, this race would seem to HAVE to grade out high.  It was a 100k Grade 3 race and Badge of Silver and Dynever are Grade 1 type animals.  Commentator and Purge are probably Grade 2 type animals.  We don\'t know yet about the 3rd place finisher, but he along with a couple others like ADded Edge and Wake at Noon are legitimate Grade 3 horses.  

Tough tough race for a Grade 3 Stakes in January.  

Not a great handicapping day on this board yesterday for any of us.  I was way off with both Purge and Excessive Pleasure.  Chuckles, whether you bet or not, you were wrong about this race and Allan was way off on the ROTW.  

Oh well, next weekend........

Jim

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Sure I was off, I didn\'t bet...lol

All I was correct about was a suspicion that if headed Commentator could fold. I\'ve seen it many times before. My problem was, I expected him to be favored and it was worth the risk he was the second coming to bet he was not. With Badge favored and Purge low the whole thing fell apart.

I was not displeased with my handicapping other than I omitted Contante. That was egregious. I would have put Purge and Dynever First, same second with Badge and the Indy and those same in third and all I mentioned in fourth. The problem was the low odds didn\'t justify the number of combinations and I wasn\'t gonna have Contante. That was the big error.

The Frankel Jockey bettors got that one.  (If they had Contante and I bet they didn\'t)
We\'ll see who comes out on top next time.

I just reviewed Alan\'s ROTW, I don\'t think he was that far off. When you saw Indy at 7-5 that had to give you second thoughts about backing him. The winner was the best figure horse and now he\'s proven at a mile. The third place horse had decent odds. Obviously the place horse made the race. \"Atticus\"...where do i remember that name?

CtC



Post Edited (01-09-05 11:22)

[jimbo66]

Chuckles,

I needed more college professors like you, the way you give out grades.

YOu posted about 10 messges on the Hal\'s Hope and in none of them did you mention backing Badge of Silver.  

Allen was off, so were you.  And so was I.  But that\'s racing.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

lol,

I give the girls better grades.

You\'re absolutely correct. I never mentioned Badge to win and never even remotely considered him atop my major exotic plays. I don\'t take Frankel and Bailey in those positions. I lose some, but the wins make up for it.

Personally, I thought the race was unplayable at those prices.

I think BOS was probably the most likely winner going in (check my quote in another thread \"if you put a gun to my head\"). His Cigar was an excellent performance. He was best that day in a very tough field. I couldn\'t see playing him at yesterday\'s price because he was somewhat suspect at 9F (I still think he\'s better at 1M or 1 1/16) in a race that he might get used early and not rate as kindly as he did yesterday.

After further review I think Purge ran at a level that approximates his Cigar. I thought his Cigar was better than it looked because he was used hard chasing BOS and Pico, but obviously he was short of his best form that day (I thought because of the layoff). He rated yesterday.  I\'d bet the speed figure will come back better for this performance, but he is still not at the top of his game. There must be something wrong besides just conditioning.

Dynever is Dynever. He usually comes from way out of it and those types of horses either lose a ton of ground, find themselves out of position to win, or hang late. They are good to bet against as a general rule. I gave him a decent shot yesterday because of the pace possibilities and distance question marks of others, but he still couldn\'t get up.

Commentator ran so poorly I think that probably wasn\'t his best stuff. It was the first time he\'s run against another quality speed horse that could hook him and force him to use whatever reserves he has, but he quit so badly I\'d give him another chance later in the year to prove he\'s not that bad.  

I agree with whoever said this was no Grade 3 race!  It was easily a solid Grade II race.



Post Edited (01-09-05 16:21)

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I thought you were closest to it CH. you did say gun to your head BOS and a nagging suspicion Purge might not be right. I was prepared to give him a pass on the NYRA mile, but I think he\'s obviously off form right now. Commentator chucked it right about at 7 marks. He came home in 26 flat in his CD one turn effort. It was a very interesting race even if value didn\'t raise its head. It doesn\'t always. I wouldn\'t take the top two against much in the Grade I\'s though. But Frankel might have more medicine in the bottle, who knows.

[richiebee]

I would not take much from BOS\'s victory.
He had target pace to chew off, which he
likes. He held off Dynever, who is very
camera shy. He had Bailey, who is still
one of the two or three top jocks in this
sort of race.

What will be interesting to see is
how long Bobby Frankel can keep this
talented yet obviously fragile beast
together. If this was a Juddmonte
property, he would already be retired.
I\'m sure Ramsey wants to race this
horse, who he has been very patient
with. If Frankel is able to keep BOS
going, he deserves credit from some
of his detractors. Most of the
\"moving up\" that you guys are so
suspicious of can only be accomplished
with an animal who is relatively sound.

I was tortured by three women this
weekend: my wife (the law allows this)and
the tag team of trainer Leah Gyarmatti
(a graduate of the H. Allen Jerkens
Jockey School)and Diane Nelson, who
came from out of the clouds to beat me out of a $400+ Daily Double
on the inner tube on Friday afternoon.
And thats why we love this game.

IMO, we did not see a serious spring
3yo stakes horse in the Aventura. High
Fly may be this years Second of June.



Post Edited (01-09-05 22:47)