San Pascual Handicap

[jimbo66]

Anybody look at the San Pascual Handicap at Santa Anita tomorrow?  I have only seen the DRF data, no T-Graph numbers yet, but the race looks interesting and offers some value, I think.

Total Impact figures to be one of the ones that will be bet.  But it looks to me like he wants more distance than 1 1/16.  At 1 1/8 or 1 1/4, he would be more formidable, but at 1 1/16, I will try to beat him.

I don\'t like Lundy\'s Liability.  The race he won, he got a soft lead on a speed favoring track.  He won\'t get the lead in here and he has to show me he can rate and win.


Congrats could/should race better in here than his last race, but with the outside post and the speed inside him, I don\'t expect a good trip.  In the money finish seems his best chance.

Excessive Pleasure looks live to me.  In his last race he was obviously hindered by the pace battle up front, as they went 44 to the half.  He gets in light at 114 and I think he makes the lead, through much more controlled fractions on Saturday.  The pace certainly won\'t be slow, but 45.3 to 46.0 woulod be ideal for this horse.  I think 1 1/16 is a good distance for him.  Doug O\'Neill is one of THOSE trainers out west, and although the moveup guys aren\'t clicking as much as they were this summer, O\'Neill is certainly not a minus.  

At a reasonable price, I like Excessive Pleasure, although i will look at the T-Graph numbers later today and I reserve the right to review the post after that

Good luck and hope everybody had a nice holiday.