who's making money betting

[dodie]

the just for the hell of it thread raises the question of who is actually betting money and winning on horses, rags guys, tg, traditional, whatever.  I think the bottom line is those who get rebates are the one\'s with the most legitimate shot at making money.  And if your play doesn\'t reach that level . . .well, then, you\'re like me . . .enjoying the sport and handicapping, but viewing it as entertainment.

Jerry, do you still have a group of you betting with a rebate shop?  Could you update us on your experiences, i.e., has your roi improved with the rebates?

In the meantime, I\'m salivating over getting a 10% rebate today on tampa bay through brisbet.  Let\'s see, that brings win takeout there down to 8.9% and exotics to 15.9%.  woohooo!!

[jimbo66]

Dodie,

Tough question to get real responses on.  I think for the most part, those of us that gamble regularly heavily \"overestimate\" our results unless you keep very accurate records.

The rebates certainly help.  It is impossible for the rebate not to help your ROI, but it isn\'t the \"panacea\", the takeout is still higher than in sports betting, even with the rebates.  I have gotten back 65k this year in rebates so far, and unfortunately, still showing a loss for the year, mostly because of a very lousy Saratoga meet.  Last year, I bet without rebates and showed a small profit.  

By the way, there are opportunities out there besides the big rebate shops where you have to be a large bettor to get rebates.  I am a big bettor, but couldn\'t use Jerry\'s rebate shop because I live in New Jersey.  I bet through Pinnaclesports.com and get back 7% on each bet I make, regardless of whether I bet $1 or $1,000.  I have no vested interest in adding to their customer base, but they are very reliable.  They aren\'t a rebate shop, but a sportsbook.  But very reputable.  They have paid out 50k scores for me without a problem.  And the rebate makes a difference, as my already bad year, would be a miserable year, if I was another 65k in the hole!

[TGJB]

Dodie--

The story was reported incorrectly in the DRF-- it wasn\'t a \"syndicate\", it was just an arrangement we made to hook up bigger players with a reputable pari-mutuel rebate outfit. The project is ongoing, and several of our guys are getting rebates. They couldn\'t work with Jim because of where he lives, but the other guys are certainly doing better than they would without rebates.

I made money betting in 7 of the last 9 years. The net of those 9 years is very positive on a ROI basis.

I had positive years prior to that, but it was very on and off and mostly depended on whether I made a couple of big hits during the year that put me over the top.

The breakthrough for me came when I stopped trying to pick winners and focused all my energy on looking for value. I look for overbet favorites (to key against) and situations where several horses are fairly similar in ability, but one is going off at odds much longer than the others.

I must point out that I am not making big money. I mostly just play for fun on weekends in the major stakes races around the country and I am very selective about betting. I pass many races.

IMHO, if you are betting a lot of favorites and other short prices horses (less than 3-1) you are going to have a very difficult time winning. At best you might squeeze out a few cents on the dollar if you are a superior handicapper, but more likely is that you will either finish up in the red or just spin a lot of money through the windows and accomplish nothing.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I had a good friend, who taught me a great deal about how to wager in Florida. He did not bet greys. He was a different kind of guy and I\'ve never met anyone who was more into compiling statistics. I\'m going back a few years, but at this time Hialeah increased their takeout to 25% on straight bets and 28% on exotics. I told my mentor: \"I\'m not betting there with that kind of takeout.\" and he said \"why does that bother you? The odds are posted on the tote board, if the return isn\'t fair don\'t bet.\" Which of course was his way of saying, \"You can always find value\".

The doctors told him he needed a heart by pass and he researched heart disease and changed his diet completely. He ate sprouts and greens and no meat at all. He was playing basketball when I left Florida and he was NOT a young man. When we hit and celebrated we\'d drink coffee instead of beer. Half of what I know I learned from him, the other half I attribute to TGraph.

CtC