Betting Against Blackdoun today?

[jimbo66]

It is funny how things come full circle.  Back in the summer, JB thought that betting against Blackdoun was a great opportunity (maybe it was), but Laura\'s Lucky Boy got run down late by Blackdoun at a flat mile.  Even after the race, Jerry said something like \"I will take my chances betting against the Blackdoun\'s every time\".  Now, off the BC Mile race, which T-Graph had him running a \"hidden\" top, he looks like a possible play.  I don\'t think so though.  I do think the fig was legit in the Mile, but I don\'t like the horse stretching out to 1 1/4.  Plus, how many of these horses that ran in the BC last month have come back and run poorly in November.  Nothing to Lose, Special Ring and Champali, to name a few.  I don\'t like these \"afterthought\" races.  Also, why hasn\'t Blackdoun tried distance races before, especially in Europe, where there are so many to choose from.  My guess is that his connections realized early on that distances was not this colt\'s \"sweet spot\".  His brilliant acceleration at 1 mile, might not be there at 1 1/4 or longer.  That happens all the time.  

As the favorite today, he looks vulnerable, to say the least.  The problem is coming up with the winner, even if you throw him out.  I think Timo is usable.  I believe the east coast three year olds on turf have been better this year.  Timo ran close to ARtie Schiller, who despite a miserable BC, was a very very good horse this year.  Terroplane has some sneaky good figures and is usable in the exotics.  Laura\'s Lucky Boy could be very formidable over a track he likes.  When he got run down late at Delmar, the Delmar turf course was heavily biased towards frontrunners, with the Hollywood course certainly not the case now.  Also, the horse might get position, even from the outside post, because of the paucity of early speed in the race.  Fight Club might be a play in the exotics also, although the European shippers tend to do better on the less firm turf courses and not so good out west.

Keying Timo and Laura\'s Lucky Boy over Timo, Laura\'s Lucky Boy, Terropplane and Fight Club.  Maybe a win bet on Timo or Laura, depending on the price.

[jimbo66]

Also, forgot, have to use Fast and Furious in the exotics underneath.

[spa]

HOLLYWOOD # 9       9/11/13 over 3/5

[Michael D.]

bet blackd to win in the BC. those 7f turf ovals have no place in horse racing. hard to believe stronach and only a few others in the biz understand that. i will use blackd again tho, ran well enough going 9f, and that inside post in this big field is huge. i will use timo, mainly because of the jock (JR has had amazing success in this turf festival). looks a tad slow, but hoping for a decent stalking trip, and a jump on the closers. i will use fast & f, although a few of these might be bunched together back there about five to ten lengths off the pace, might be looking at some serious ground loss here. laura might be tough. i expect stevens stay lay third or fourth, so he might be able to tuck in there somewhere, and not lose too much ground from the outside post. the horse tends to hang a bit, and i won\'t use if the turf is soft (saw umbrellas out yesterday). and of course there is imperialism, my derby pick. bred to go 10f on turf, but what the hell is desormeaux going to do from post 13. i guess he drops back to last, tries to save some ground and make it up in the stretch. tough task, but i can\'t toss a horse with this much class......... odds should be decent on timo, i guess i will key him over the others.

[Michael D.]

after a quick look at the 7th, i might go with ocean drive if the turf is firm. i think they have been pointing towards this for this all along, whie a few of the others may not have. the horse will be completely cranked off five weeks rest, gets a decent post, and gets JR, who won this race last year with heat haze. OD might be a touch slower than a few, but hoping the human connections get the job done. musical chimes must also be used i guess. looks like the 1m distance is her game. like blackd, she could have won the BC with a better trip. intercontinental will make a run, but i still have visions of her full brothers come flying for third in the BC a few years back at huge odds. is this race long enough for her? with bailey up, i will use, with another jock i would toss at low odds. island fashion should also appreciate the return to the 1m. this horse has amazing pure speed. if baze can work out a decent trip, she could be the best.... i\'m looking for decent odds on OD, and i will key her over the others i mentioned. tough race, the guys who hit races like this are the real handicappers (usually not me).



Post Edited (11-28-04 13:02)

[Michael D.]

read my Matriarc post (if you really want to ready something stupid). i mentioned how intercontinental\'s half bro came running too late in the BC a few years ago..... well her half sis WON THE DAMN MATRIARC, just last year (i just remembered that)..... bailey at 9-2, and i have to go chasing long odds on a horse i know is a bit slow....... anyway, nailed the fall highweight at aqu (after handicapping it for four days). hoping timo runs well here, but i am getting less confident.

[jimbo66]

I am sure Laura\'s Lucky Boy is going to win this race.

I got disgusted with my football bets today and didn\'t bet horses.  I liked Intercontinental and Thunder touch.  Been betting Thunder Touch every time out since midsummer.

LLBoy will be my hat trick.  All winners when no money is at stake!!

But I will root your Timo on.  Good luck.

I read your post on the Matriarch.  Zigging instead of zagging!

[jimbo66]

Really think Blackdoun is an underlay in a field this big.  5 horse superfecta box, throwing him out?

Timo
Terroplane
Fight Club
Fast and Furious
Laura\'s Lucky Boy