Analysis of the Analysis

[P-Dub]

Post Edited (11-01-04 16:43)

[NoCarolinaTony]

Jimbo,

If you take the typical two points for Lasix and you use your head a little, (ie 3rd vs Boys in 19 horse Arc) and if you saw the race, you might come to that conclusion.

Yes Timeform ratings I think are more reliable from what I have seen so far (IMO) for Euro\'s coming over to US. (see magistretti\'s Euro Figs vs US Figs for example for difference)

And it was $47K not $49 (my mistake)

If you think the Euro\'s are not as astute as our US Horsemen you are kidding yourself. If they believe a horse is a standout, they usually prove themselve right (Banks Hill,Giants Causeway, Sahkii to name a few). Lets face it, the Horse was 4/5 for a reason.

[P-Dub]

Tony,
It paid $49k for 2 bucks but your point is well taken. The all button can be your best friend.

I think everyone is going a little overboard regarding the analysis. Most of us buy TG throughout the year without any analysis from TGJB. We read the graphs and make up our own mind. Its similar to going to the track with buddies who use the same info as you (DRF,TG,Trackmaster, whatever) but come up with different opinions on a race. Same with TG. Now I admit Jerry is better than most if not all of us at reading patterns. But to expect him to be perfect, or to blindly follow every last opinion he has is ludicrous. Especially when the analysis is done before odds, track condition, etc.. are known. TGJB will point you in the right direction often enough, but don\'t expect him to hold your hand all day. True there were many opinions that didn\'t pan out...............BUT he did say
MILE
-Singletary has the best chance to run a new top
-AP got weight, lasix, and with 2 pts improvement would be a borderline contender.

His final analysis never gave a specific play, so if you interpreted his comments on ALL horses its not inconceivable that this exacta could be played. It paid $1400 for 2 bucks. At the odds (isn\'t that the reason we use TG) it certainly could have been played. What does he have to do, give out cold $1400 exactas?? Its up to us to be creative and find plays that have a reasonable shot. My main play in the race was Whipper but I saved with different small exactas using prices, one of which was Singletary/AP.

Now I will admit that a lot of the analysis missed, but do you have to agree with everything he says?? Ghostzapper was a gift at $7. Any other day of the week and a horse with that kind of numbers edge is 4-5. Every horse in the super figured for a relatively easy $1100. It doesn\'t take many winning tickets with these types of results. I made many terrible wagers Saturday, but the last thing to blame is the analysis. 2 winning tickets out of probably 100 can still be a good day.

One last thing....how reliable are the turf/Euro figs?  Most of these Euro horses are not as fast on TG but manage to outperform them. Just wondering.



Post Edited (11-01-04 16:46)

[jimbo66]

Tony,

Didn\'t like Kela because she got her negative numbers running in short fields, at more than 6 furlongs.  When he beat Pico Central, that horse didn\'t fire.

I like sharp stalking speed in the sprint.  That is my \"handicapping\" view.  I am not a sheets numbers guy.  

I thought Cajun Beat and Midas Eyes had enough tactical speed to overcome the outside post and get trips right behind what I thought were false speeds (Abbondanza, Gold Storm and Speightstown).  Speightstown was obviously legit and the two I bet didn\'t run well.

[jimbo66]

NC Tony,

I don\'t know how old you are, or how long you have been betting.  But \"Dancing Brave was 1-2 for a reason too\".  And he ran out of the money as a much more \"legendary\" horse than Ouija Board.

I agree with you on the Euros figures.  I can\'t prove it, but I don\'t think Jerry\'s Euro figures are correct.  All the Euro invaders this summer that I saw outran their T-Graph figures.  

However, if you thought Ouija Board was likely to be in the back of the pack early (which I did) and you thought the pace would be slow (which I did), and you thought she might not run her best off the big race in the Arc (which I did), then you could bet against her at 4-5.  

The pace was slow and I bet she didn\'t run her best (haven\'t seen any figs yet).  However, she got a great ride from Kieran Fallon.  The horse was at the back of the back in all but one of her races and somehow got the garden spot behind the speed in a 52.3 half.  I give credit to Kieran Fallon and blame Edgar Prado on Wonder Again (to a degree).

But at 4-5, she was tough for some of us to take.