East Avenue and the Bluegrass... That was NOT the path projected! ...Ashland

[T Severini]

It\'s a phenomena when one wants to talk Derby and there is little posting going on! It makes one hesitant to post, so let\'s just edit the theme.

Being critical of East Avenue, he is now a major factor for the Derby. Did not expect him to be around at the end. Ruined the exotics. Despite factoring it otherwise, East largely did have it his way out there. When they decided to come for him he had energy left. East was tired at the end. He changed to the wrong lead to catch some breath, but he ran like a major factor Derby Horse. It\'s a new perspective from a misjudgment of the pace.So its probably wrong again.

Also did NOT foresee the path Hernandez took the Whitman horse. Most definitely Did Not. What in the world! When TGraph makes that figure, it\'s gonna be interesting on the \"wide\". Eager to see the Red Board in regard to where they were heading in per Tgraph.

In the Ashland, regarding the T-analysis they picked the 9-1 winner for the perfecta. The winner and place horse actually had the two best figures if you wished to forgive a race and do your footing inside and/or on the lead.

The weather looks good for The Bluegrass.  Sun and 45 degrees approximate.

Interesting Monday Track at Keeneland. Certainly, it was drying out. You rarely know how a track is going to be day to day. Tend to suspect the Ashland is a good case study for how the Keeneland track was on the 9th race today. Interesting result with some interesting paths. Maybe the Ashland Result all made sense on TFigs. (I\'ll pull the Red Board in the morning.) I will say this:  At Keeneland I want Franco or Hernandez on my horse. (Though Ortiz may benefit regardless.)

What do you make of the Godolphin horse, East Ave?  He certainly is grand looking, but it also appears that he certainly wants the lead. Check out his B.C.Juvenile. (He\'s in the 1 hole. Don\'t blink!!!)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=edvmeXC_A6s&t=9s

So they put him away and set him down for the Risen Star where he meets a horse with Magnitude. East Avenue appears to have run his pace race, but it was a lot of pace:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BLx7w3RKLek

So what is Eastling gonna do tomorrow to reverse this trend? Something extraordinary! There is some pace in this race. River Thames can move. So can Owen Almighty...abit. What about Render Judgement in the Virginia Derby. They went 1:08 and 1:33! (Don\'t know about that track.) It appears to be a one turn mile and quarter!) Gonna say Render Judgement is a pace factor and will stand to be corrected!

Which brings me to the theme... Path and from off pace.

Did you know there is a horse in this race owned by the Stable that ran Bayakoa? (Remember the Go for Wand disaster?) A couple years later, the stable owner died when his 65 year old pilot was flying a new plane in bad weather. That pilot had a trove of hours in the old plane but he wasn\'t paying enough attention to detail on the fateful day.

[jbelfior]

The last half mile was timed with an hourglass. I\'ll wait to see the TG numbers, but my eyes did not see a Derby contender yesterday.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[T Severini]

Piping rich coffee in hand, opened the Red Board Room. No cream nor sugar, you want the treatment to go straight to your blood. It\'s like Silver Vetting. Use the good stuff... when it matters most.

Opening the Red Board is like Christmas to some extent. (What\'s under the tree?) You want to see what the preeminent figure entity left in regard to your own speculations. Coincidentally, TFigs Analysis and my meanderings were like Siamese Twins. When the surgeon did the separation, my 66% allocation to Win, which was a Tower of London torment, pulled through.

The Whitman horse trip was a nightmare. Such is the fate of a plodder, but he\'s got more plod than say Publisher. Just didn\'t like the ride at all. (Whisker) But he is not a bad horse. He is not muscled. He is not dappled. He is not flashy, nor expensive, but as Woody Stephens said, \"It\'s not a beauty contest.\" He also took an early bump and that helped turn him into a Kelso that race.

Top of the lane East Avenue was being lavished with expletives. He stole my path, but he really ran a helluva race.

It\'s better to be lucky than right.

[johnnym]

Correct me if I’m wrong
Didn’t everyone come home slow on the dirt?
Commonwealth winner last furlong 14 seconds
Madison 13 seconds

[ajkreider]

Yeah.  They were all slow except the maidens, oddly.  

Burnham Square home in 13.08 into the wind, which is fine. Equibase has him 42 feet farther than East Avenue. The winner\'s the only one of these with a shot to hit the board in May.

[jbelfior]

A few have hit the board and yes Sierra Leone should have won it last year.

But officially no winners of the Derby out of the BG since 1991. Some infamous names come to mind such as Brody\'s Cause, Carpe Diem, Monba, Halory Hunter, Pulpit, Millenium Wind, Sinister Minister, and the great Bandini.  


Good luck,
Joe B.

[Silver Charm]

The Winner was very wide on the far turn. Like 5W. What is complicating things is he went into the 1st turn 1W and came out like 3W. For no reason at all. He ran 4W to 5W all the down the backstretch too. So is this a runner that just hates kickback. Well if so thats a problem coming from way back in a 20 horse Derby field BTW Trainer Ian Wilkes and his Wife are great people and congrats on tje W and Derby Horse.

I know who I like alreaady. Juat need to see the Prep Race numbers to be sure of the Pattern looks right. Whoever handles the crowd and field size and has solid numbers WINS!! They may as well start engraving the Trophy.....