Filly and Mare Sprint

[Silver Charm]

Have not seen any numbers yet and before the Analysis comes out I\'m still leaning on Society. This is kind of an ALL IN campaign on this race because she has only run twice all year. This was the Goal.

There potentially could be a pesky speed type drawn inside here. And knowing Chad Brown he doesn\'t sit back and they will bringing outside pressure. His filly also powered away strongly in her last after a modest opening half. That she isnt getting here.  Vahva should be sitting in behind with a potential tip out trip and run them down. Scylla is interesting at 10-1 but has been aggressively campaigned. Recent freshening or not. Zeitlos is a Curlin and she is only 4.  

But I keep coming back to where I started and that is the fastest filly in the race. Once I see the Figs I will weigh in again.

BTW-if you want an idea on how talented Thorpedo Anna is Ways and Means tried to get even and press her on the far in the Kentucky Oaks. And we know how that worked out.

[Tavasco]

Like most of the cup races a tricky puzzle. I appreciate you sharing some of your thoughts and I have a couple of reflections. In no particular order. your concern of a quick one drawing inside. I think trainer Amato\'s lightly raced entrant One Magic Philly is a candidate for that role.

My concern about Society is her ability to maintain good form. It appears Asnussen has waited for just this race after her last two races which were solid. On her best certainly a win prospect. If memory serves the board discussed his cup race record (poorish?) last year.

I\'m superstitious against Baffert runners on the lawn. Otherwise  Pleasant checks all the boxes of one to use in constructing wagers.

The gal in this race that hurts my head is Pandora\'s Gift. A little surprised to even see her in the race. She\'s fast, comes with long odds, a top rider and I expect to use her under several.

[banditbeau]

Thorograph shows society with only a 3% chance to run a top and only 14% chance to pair. Looks like a way more chance to run an X or an off, thought\'s

[Tavasco]

banditbeau Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Thorograph shows society with only a 3% chance to
> run a top and only 14% chance to pair. Looks like
> a way more chance to run an X or an off, thought\'s

That is consistent with my impression of her line. Except, if I recall correctly, there is a lot of white space on her sheet, which I consider a clue that she could throw any kind of performance. The connections entered her, and at her best, she is well ...capable.

[TGJB]

First of all, if you’ve been using TG for a while, you shouldn’t be looking at those percentages. To get a mean8 Gaul sample size we have to include of apples with the oranges.

Second of all, that’s 3% for a NEW top, meaning more than a point better than that negative number she ran last year, and 14% to run within a point of that one either way.

[Roman]

Any concerns about Cogburn? TG has him pairing his last three, and every one else has the Saratoga race as his top figure. I think TG has it right , and he will be probably the shortest price out of all the BC races.

[Tavasco]

Another Asmussen entrant. I rarely play horizontally so he\'s no concern. Since he\'s short-priced I\'ll probably pick a couple of longshots underneath and a couple of Euros or Samarais to beat him.

I checked last year\'s results from the Archives. Appleby had several winners. Including Big EVS in the Juvenile Turf Sprint. That one is in vs Cogburn this year. Asmussen had zero winners. It may be that Appleby just has more entries therefore more winners in big turf races than Asmussen

In this race, Asmussen has Irad up to mete out Cogburn\'s blazing early speed, and Appleby has Tom Marquand up whom I know nothing about. Irad\'s race to lose?

[Roman]

Marquand is a top jock across the pond. Very good rider. Top 5 jock out there for sure.

[Molesap]

One quick clarification in case you are using this information to construct a bet (and to be honest maybe it does not matter much given their relative success):

Big Evs, winner of the Juvenile Turf Sprint last year, was trained by Michael Appleby, who has Big Mojo in the Juvenile Turf Sprint today and then Big Evs tries again tomorrow in the Turf Sprint. That win was his first and only Breeders’ Cup starter. So, he is 1/1 in his career.

Master of the Seas won the Mile in 2023 and was trained by Charlie Appleby, who is no relation to Michael. He has won 10 Breeders’ Cup races in his career from just 20 starters. He has Al Qudra and Aomori City in the Juvenile Turf today. I find it very interesting that William Buick, who has first call on all Charlie Appleby horses, is on Aomori City and not Al Qudra - I am tossing all three of the horses from the Summer at WO including the one with a pretty strong number as I do not think the European form of the top two was as good as that of a number of other Europeans â€" they all jumped up 2 points or more in that race and I suspect they may not be able to repeat those efforts today, but I do expect at least one or two of the Europeans to have similar jump ups first time in the US. He also has a number of others including one on the undercard in Cavallo Bay in race 4, who I think will benefit from the east to west turf shift so I will be using in the early P5. He has at least one entry in each grassy Breeders’ Cup race on Saturday including Star of Mystery (Turf Sprint), Rebel’s Romance (Turf), Beautiful Love and Cinderella’s Dream (F+M Turf), and finally Notable Speech (Mile). Note that the team of William Buick and Charlie Appleby have won the Breeders’ Cup Mile for three years running.

So collectively, any trainer named Appleby is 11 for 21, so maybe it does not matter. What would the line be for how many horses trained by any Appleby win this weekend? I would be tempted to bet the over at 1.5.

[Tavasco]

The best ride of Saturday (to Date) VAN DYKE DRAYDEN wins. Worst ride - FRESU ANTONIO gets blocked inside and behind a wall of horses and apparently eager to finish.

Kudos to unlocky trainer Steve Asmussen.

[Silver Charm]

VOMIT.  Don\'t know how she got 2nd but I backed it up. Fractions were fast and she was sandwiched and she still be beat those others.

GIANT EFFORT. I\'m proud of her

Coming back solidly on Bourbon Thief in the 5th at CD. Ian Wilkes and son in law Chris Landeros

[Tavasco]

Good CD Call! - Thanks

[Silver Charm]

She had a gorgeous looking line. Dam had worked her way down to an 8 on grass at a Route. Kentucky Downs race she actually had trouble. Wasnt gonna win but got knocked off stride after running thru the field from last. Ian Wilkes Special that levered my profitable day (along with that Society Place photo which I still can\'t believe) with some good later recommendations from the TG Analysis