Wading Through the Potential Chaff

[Molesap]

The recent scratch of Idiomatic out of the Distaff is a reminder about the fragility of the thoroughbred racehorse. The other day I was able to get 7/2 on Idiomatic in a future book offshore wager and thought I was so clever - better figures, older horse, BC repeater, pace advantage, likely much lower price day of race. I am not a future book person in general, so I did not “load up” on her but did make the wager. As is often the case in horse racing, I was not nearly as clever as I thought I was given her scratch. While in some ways I love the pre-entry process before the Breeders’ Cup, it is difficult trying to handicap over 200 horses in 14 different races. It helps to have information about who is likely to make the starting gate and who is not, so you do not spend time handicapping horses that are less likely to be in the field during the pre-entry process.

When I checked on the morning of 10/25, National Treasure still has not worked since his last race in the California Crown on 9/28. Baffert has not put a published work into him since that race. In contrast, Muth ran in the same race for Baffert and has worked twice since then. Despite the lack of activity, National Treasure was still pre-entered and would assumedly be one of the favorites for that race. Not surprisingly, rumors swirl about his status for the race.

I watched a recent interview with Aidan O’Brien and he mentioned a couple of horses that were pre-entered but likely are not going to make the trip for various reasons - some were going to be evaluated in the next day so it may change. We will know on Monday who was not entered, but it seems like the following are the ones that are less likely to come - they planned for everyone else to make the trip:

Likely not making the trip:
Bubbling - Juvenile Filly Turf
Monumental - Juvenile Turf
Illinois - Turf
Mountain Bear - Mile
Henry Longfellow - Mile

He also mentioned that Content and Wingspan would likely go with their first preference in the Filly and Mare Turf. He did say that he plans for River Tiber to fly over for the race. Currently, he is second on the AE list for the Mile, but Full Count Felicia, who is the one ahead of him, is likely going to the Filly Mare Turf and two of O’Brien’s own horses entered in the main body of the mile are probably not going to make the trip, that means he has control over whether or River Tiber will make the field.